Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[MaxQue]

The PLQ has finally decided to run someone.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Nantel (MP for Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher / Longueuil--Saint-Hubert for the NDP from 2011 to 2019 when he was expelled for negociating his defection with the Green Party) announced he wants to be the PQ candidate in the by-election.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Nantel (MP for Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher / Longueuil--Saint-Hubert for the NDP from 2011 to 2019 when he was expelled for negociating his defection with the Green Party) announced he wants to be the PQ candidate in the by-election.

He will be the PQ candidate.

[MaxQue]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Hopefully, Climat Québec beats Alex "Putin is right to be afraid of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis" Tyrrell.

[MaxQue]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

and today a new poll by Leger on provincial vote intention in Quebec has the once great PQ down to just 10% of the vote and in FIFTH place...if they lose Marie-Victorin it may be a sign of that party's imminent death.

There was a poll of Marie-Victorin (commissioned by PQ) last month saying the by-election was a tie between them and the CAQ. I wouldn't go as far than you, but I would say the PQ needs a win there to be relevant in the next election.

[MaxQue]

Also, the New Brunswick by-elections for Miramichi Bay - Neguac and Southwest Miramichi - Bay du Vin have been called for June 20th.

[MaxQue]

Also, the New Brunswick by-elections for Miramichi Bay - Neguac and Southwest Miramichi - Bay du Vin have been called for June 20th.

Seems weird to call byelections over three months in advance!

4, it actually got called last month (and those seats are empty since August 2021, both resignations to run for MP).

[MaxQue]

Result page:
https://enr.emapplications.ca/

At the moment with 2 boxes out of 56, the NDP leads with 24 votes, 23 votes for PC and 18 votes for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

At 11/56, it's PC 202, Liberal 200 and NDP 183.

[MaxQue]

At 22/56, it's Liberal 537, PC 518, NDP 302.
I think it's safe to say the NDP won't win, but it's still quite tight.

[MaxQue]

The Manitoba rule for recounts is not percentage-based, but a simple 50 votes rule (and I don't think any party managed to get a lead for 50 votes so far tonight).

There is also a by-election pending in Thompson following the death of MBNDP Danielle Adams in a car crash back in December. The Liberals already announced they won't be running a candidate.

[MaxQue]

At 47/56, it's PC 1587 votes, Liberals 1573 votes.

[MaxQue]

And now it's 55/56 and PC 2565, Liberals 2440.

[MaxQue]

Very happy to see that Climat Québec seems to do better than the Green Putinist.

[MaxQue]

Presumably the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection will be in Spring 2023. One thing that could help the Liberals is the way the provincial Tories under Doug Ford are squandering political capital like crazy right now and will be more and more of a liability for the federal Tory party

It has to be earlier, the 6 month deadline to call it is on November 26.

[MaxQue]

The PCs (Kevin Klein) won the Kilkfield Park (Manitoba)  by-election.
The NDP had a 100 vote lead with just the advance poll remaining, and PCs overtake the NDP on the advance polls.


PC 2,356
NDP 2,196
Liberal 1,741
Green 70

PC - 37% vs 2019: 50%, -13%
NDP - 34% vs 2019: 26%, +8%
LIB - 27% vs 2019: 16%, +11%
votes cast: 6372 (37% turnout), 2019 votes cast: 10,895

PCs have to be breathing a sigh of relief, they won but barely. That is not a good sign, but in the end they still held it and that gives them the advantage going into the next election. But with this strong of a candidate, in a seat that has a mostly Tory voting history, the results should not have been this close.

NDP are probably happy enough but disappointed. Kirkfield Park is not in their top tier target ridings but this was close and that should embolden them (Assiniboia to the north would much more of a target). They may need to win this one to win gov't though; during the last NDP gov't from 1999-2016, they did not hold KP for the first two terms, but won the seat for the last two.  It's once again the Liberal vote that held them back, and that is something that the NDP will need to work on in Winnipeg in order to win more seats.
The last provincewide polling had the NDP leading 46% to 35%, in Winnipeg that was 55% to 27%. If you look at the NW breakdown, where KP is, the polling is tight with the PCs at 42% vs NDP 41%. This by-election result reflects that.

Liberals have be be happy they increased their vote, this shows they are still a competitive party that the PCs and NDP can't ignore.

NDP better hope the Liberal vote get squeezed next time, on uniform swing, it leads to NDP 29, PC 24, Lib 4.