Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[mileslunn]

Wonder if we'll get a candidate who wins 0 votes? Also, this could result in Turmel's lowest PV share, maybe ever? (This coming off his Brantford mayoral run, where he had his best result in 25 years and 60 elections)

I suspect a lot of Turmel's votes are just people who think all other options lousy.  I once voted for him in a by-election as didn't like any of the mainstream parties and I suspect most who voted for him in that group.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would've voted for Turmel in that election 25 years ago, had I been old enough to vote. It was the Ottawa-Carleton chair election, and there were only 3 candidates (Bob Chiarelli and incumbent chair Peter Clark being the other two, both centrist/centre-right candidates)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/jkenney/status/1597741099971641344

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/jkenney/status/1597741099971641344

Likely won't call one as risk NDP could win this and that would be super embarrassing.  Not saying will go NDP in general election, but in by-election which are notorious for low turnout might as some old PC types who cannot stomach voting NDP in general election might in by-election just to send a message to Smith.

[DL]

There will be a Manitoba provincial byelection on December 13 in Kirkfield Park. It could be one to watch. Although it went to the PCs by a 49% to 25% margin in 2019, the PCs have become extremely unpopular since then and polls show a huge PC to NDP swing compared to 2019. Kirkfield Park is relatively upscale and has historically been a PC stronghold but the NDP won it in 2007 and again in 2011 so its not outside of the realm of possibility that they could win it again under the right circumstances.

I think and NDP win would be a bit of an upset - but the likely PC margin will be worth watching

[lilTommy]

There will be a Manitoba provincial byelection on December 13 in Kirkfield Park. It could be one to watch. Although it went to the PCs by a 49% to 25% margin in 2019, the PCs have become extremely unpopular since then and polls show a huge PC to NDP swing compared to 2019. Kirkfield Park is relatively upscale and has historically been a PC stronghold but the NDP won it in 2007 and again in 2011 so its not outside of the realm of possibility that they could win it again under the right circumstances.

I think and NDP win would be a bit of an upset - but the likely PC margin will be worth watching

MNDP are running Logan Oxenham, local resident, former folk musician, currently juvenile correctional officer and counsellor at the Manitoba Youth Centre. Seems fairly solid.

But PCs are running Former Winnipeg city councillor and mayoral candidate Kevin Klein. But, he is facing a lot of negative pushback from the NDP and Liberals for his time working for, twice, Peter Nygard. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I was rather bullish about the CPC's chances in the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection before Sousa's nomination. Now that we're reaching the finish line, I think it will be an LPC hold.

It seems Poilievre is banking on a general election being three years away instead of going for the permanent campaign, because prolonged "permanent campaigns" tend to help the government (Tories would know, it was basically how they whittled away at the Liberal Party during the Harper years). There was also the Emergencies Act inquiry, which regardless of the inquiry's testimonies or report, was just never going to help the CPC politically, so sitting on the sidelines may have made sense.

It's damage control for the CPC, but it's not a momentum-building strategy, and we're seeing very little momentum right now. It would be a mistake for the CPC to just accept this strategy long-term. Maybe losing a winnable byelection could be a wakeup call though.

Of course, things aren't entirely going well for the government, not by a longshot. If there was a byelection happening in a rural Liberal riding right now, the recent amendments made to the so-called assault weapon ban would probably be their death knell. But that won't work in Mississauga, hunting is not a big deal there. The economy is still in rocky waters and we could well enter a recession with the BoC's continued rate hikes, but the initial shock of inflation is gone, and things feel more "normal" today than they have for quite some time, and that is good news for the Liberals.

[adma]

And it'll be interesting to see how the vote distribution goes among the rogue independents, given that it's a byelection and that there's almost twice as many candidates as in StBStV in '21.  (And among *those* rogue candidates, the Rhino was the flagship w/80 votes, the first alphabetically on the ballot was next w/58 votes, and everyone else got 31 votes or less.  We might see a record for candidates with single-digit vote numbers; who knows--there was only one, a 7-voter, in StBStV.)

[Independents for Nihilism]

I think it is more likely for one of the indy candidates to get literally 0 votes, than for the Conservatives to win the riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a record of 40 candidates running in the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

Your country's Supreme Court is about as a big a joke as the one in your neighbour to the south.

[DL]

Just a reminder that the Kirkfield Park byelection is on Tuesday and a brand new Manitoba poll by Probe had the NDP leading the PCs province wide by 11 points 46-35 which would represent a massive 27 point swing since the last election. The poll has NDP support in Winnipeg up to 55% which is astonishingly high and would point to winning all but a ha evil if seats in the city

[Benjamin Frank]

Just a reminder that the Kirkfield Park byelection is on Tuesday and a brand new Manitoba poll by Probe had the NDP leading the PCs province wide by 11 points 46-35 which would represent a massive 25 point swing since the last election

This is a wealthier riding that ideally the provincial Liberals could be competitive in, but it doesn't seem that way. Shame because Dougald Lamont seems to be a decent person if a little too left wing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kirkfield Park went NDP in 2007 and 2011, so it's not like Fort Whyte where the only other option for disgruntled Tories is to vote Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Sad news, Jim Carr has just died after battle with cancer so sometime later will be a by-election in Winnipeg South Centre.  Very sad news.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Confidence among CPC partisans is very low going into the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection. Losing it wouldn't be the end of the world, but if we lose it by a 5 point margin or more (it was a 6 point deficit in 2021), tough questions have to be asked about the seriousness of Poilievre's backroom.

The Liberals nominated a candidate a month later than the CPC - yes, a much stronger candidate, but a beatable one in the current climate nonetheless. CPC seems not to have taken advantage of that head start, or even of all the money in their coffers.

From leadership sales alone, the CPC collected $10M+ this year, on top of the few million in donations that they usually get. The CPC machinery is considerably better funded than the LPC, yet it seems the Liberals have outspent us in this byelection. The kind of push needed to flip a stubborn but close riding never materialized.

Maybe internal polling looked really bad, and they didn't want to waste too much time and money on a losing race, or tie Poilievre to a defeat. We'll see if that's the case, but if Mississauga-Lakeshore looks unwinnable for the Conservatives, that's a damning indictment that Poilievre's people need to sort out.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
Liberal 3
Conservative 2
NDP 1

I think this riding can be called now.

[Continential]

First poll
Liberal 3
Conservative 2
NDP 1

I think this riding can be called now.

link?

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
Liberal 3
Conservative 2
NDP 1

I think this riding can be called now.

link?

https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2208&lang=e

[toaster]

Taking a long time...

Currently:

Conservative   Ron Chhinzer   11   33.3 %
Parti Rhinocéros Party   Sébastien CoRhino   0   0.0 %
Green Party   Mary Kidnew   0   0.0 %
NDP-New Democratic Party   Julia Kole   4   12.1 %
Liberal   Charles Sousa   14   42.4 %

[Benjamin Frank]

Still early but looking like a Liberal blowout
Liberal 644
Conservative 331

24 of 234 polls

[King of Kensington]

This is a very poor showing for the CPC.  Closer to Canadian Alliance level of support than what the CPC usually gets in the riding.

[Continential]

Ten point swing towards the Liberals, damn.

[trebor204]

The polls have been closed for over 2 hours, and only 75 out 234 polls have been reported, with 4,256 totals votes.  That's an average of 56 votes/poll. With 40 candidates I wonder how much extra paperwork is needed.
The following candidates have yet to record a single vote:

Samuel Jubinville

Alain Lamontagne

Pascal St-Amand

Darcy Justin Vanderwater

Ysack Dupont (Edit forgot to add him)

[Benjamin Frank]

With just over 2/3 of the polls, the percentage gap has closed somewhat between the Liberals and the Conservatives to 51.1-35.6%.

It is possible the Conservatives will not decline significantly from 2021 when all the votes are counted.

[lilTommy]

With just over 2/3 of the polls, the percentage gap has closed somewhat between the Liberals and the Conservatives to 51.1-35.6%.

It is possible the Conservatives will not decline significantly from 2021 when all the votes are counted.

Looks like a minor decrease, 38% in the 2021 general, and 37% in the by-election. It's the Liberal vote that has increased to 51% from 44% in the general. It was the decrease in votes for the other parties here; People's, NDP, Green that looks to have gone Liberal in this two-horse race.
Turnout looks like 23K votes vs the general at 56K.