Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for Mississauga-Lakeshore but key indicators in some ways.

Trudeau:  This is more a Blue Liberal type riding so probably a lot wish Trudeau was more fiscally conservative so reluctantly vote Liberal.  If wins shows still in game but if loses depends on turnout and size of loss.

Poilievre: High number of university educated and upper middle class types so may like balanced budgets and lower taxes, but could care less about right wing populism so more a riding Charest would do well in.  If Poilievre wishes to win, he pretty much needs to win this.  If loses this in general election, at best wins a weak minority.

Still as mentioned I think Tories have slight edge simply as their supporters more motivated to show up, but wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold riding.

While I agree is that the slight uptick in CPC support we've seen is probably not coming from places like Mississauga-Lakeshore, I'm not sure political "tribes" like the one you've described really factors into this riding's voting patterns. This riding has been within a 10-point margin for either party in every election since 2006, and that timespan has featured four Liberal and three Conservative leaders, all of whom had a different appeal, and a varying range of nationwide performances by both parties.

The better lens of looking at this riding, I would argue, is (in-)elasticity. In the 2011 federal election, this was the Liberals' second-best riding in Peel Region, and in 2015, it was their worst (not counting Dufferin-Caledon). You can look at other elections too, the point is that there are tons of stubborn Liberals and stubborn Conservatives in this riding, and Trudeau being a little too lefty and Poilievre being a little too populist is probably a very marginal factor.

Because of this inelasticity, this riding doesn't really provide that much insight into the coveted 905. The whole reason why parties obsess over the 905 is because it's a region prone to wild swings, which Lakeshore isn't. If the CPC wins this byelection, I don't think that proves Poilievre's ability to win over Liberal voters; conversely, if the Liberals hold on, nor does it prove Poilievre's inability to do so.

[adma]

Well, Mississauga-Lakeshore is not prone to *wild* wild swings; however, because this is the inner 905, "inelastic" is relative.

But what it has is Mississauga's primary "no matter what" Conservative nodes; that is, the affluent areas along the Credit Valley N of Port Credit to Dundas, and W via Lorne Park to Clarkson.  But as such, they've also been very "Paul Martin Liberal" compatible, and that lean t/w "business Liberalism" also enabled Charles Sousa to outperform the provincial party in the '18 disaster.  So with that particular thumb on the scale, it's the most Don Valley West-ish of Mississauga's ridings, or at least contains the most Don Valley West-ish parts--in the rest of the city (as well as Brampton), such parts are comparably minimal or ultra-incremental.

What remains--old Port Credit & Lakeview in the E + the fringe on the N side of the QEW, the Sheridan/Park Royal/outer Clarkson zones to the W--is humbler; it includes blue-collarish parts which might be deemed "Liberal/Ford Nation crossover", some nodes of true nuclear ethno-Liberal (notably the apartment towers NE of the QEW & EMP, which in UK terms would be like a council-housing Labour node in a Tory constituency), and a reasonable hint of wouldbe 416-spillover starter-millennial gentrification.  Keep in mind that this is the Mississauga riding whose "feel" is most that of "Toronto Township" (which is what Mississauga was before 1968).

[adma]

And wouldn't you know it, but they got themselves the perfectest Liberal candidate for the riding...

https://globalnews.ca/news/9255533/mississauga-lakeshore-byelection-charles-sousa/

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And wouldn't you know it, but they got themselves the perfectest Liberal candidate for the riding...

https://globalnews.ca/news/9255533/mississauga-lakeshore-byelection-charles-sousa/

That's a solid choice by the Grits, they're definitely winning the name recognition battle now. Having a more localized race might actually be better for the Liberals, because a "referendum on Trudeau" narrative in a byelection is not what they need right now. I'd say this race went from lean CPC to toss-up with this announcement.

[DL]

Presumably the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection will be in Spring 2023. One thing that could help the Liberals is the way the provincial Tories under Doug Ford are squandering political capital like crazy right now and will be more and more of a liability for the federal Tory party

[MaxQue]

Presumably the Mississauga Lakeshore byelection will be in Spring 2023. One thing that could help the Liberals is the way the provincial Tories under Doug Ford are squandering political capital like crazy right now and will be more and more of a liability for the federal Tory party

It has to be earlier, the 6 month deadline to call it is on November 26.

[DL]

There is no way Trudeau waits until November 26 to call the byelection since that would make election day New Year’s Eve! Although if I’m not mistaken the slaw says he has to call the byelection by Nov. 26 but he could set a date in late January if he wanted

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It's been called for December 12. I guess Trudeau was just waiting to nominate a candidate before calling it, because it doesn't make much sense to wait all the way until the deadline

[DL]

And the good news for the Liberals is that by December 12 memories will be very raw of the way the Ontario PCs messed up education and the federal Tories could be hurt by “brand cross contamination”

[Krago]

The good news for the Liberals is that their candidate was the member of provincial parliament for the riding from 2007-2018.

The bad news for the Liberals is that he was Kathleen Wynne's Finance Minister.

In fact, it could be said that Charles Sousa made Kathleen Wynne Premier of Ontario.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/five-reasons-why-sousa-supported-wynne/article7895047/

[adma]

The good news for the Liberals is that their candidate was the member of provincial parliament for the riding from 2007-2018.

The bad news for the Liberals is that he was Kathleen Wynne's Finance Minister.

In fact, it could be said that Charles Sousa made Kathleen Wynne Premier of Ontario.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/five-reasons-why-sousa-supported-wynne/article7895047/

Yet the good news for the Libs in *this* particular riding is that even in defeat, Sousa was far more popular than his party in '18.  (Not unlike Yvan Baker in nearby Etobicoke Centre, who dead-cat-bounced his way to Ottawa in '19).

[RogueBeaver]

Dominique Anglade is resigning Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne effective Dec. 1.

[lilTommy]

Dominique Anglade is resigning Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne effective Dec. 1.

Could be a potential QS target/gain. Anglade as PLQ leader only won with 36% (-2% vs 2018) vs QS at 27% (+4 vs 2018).

Funny, of the last 7 elections (since 2007), in 5 of them the PLQ won 38% (45% in '08, 52% in '14)

I'd assume the PLQ floor may be close to that 30%, it's getting there. But with the PLQ loss of the neighbouring riding of Verdun to QS (the PLQ vote was 29%), this is a target for QS to win now.

[DL]

Apparently a Manitoba provincial byelection has to be called very soon in the Winnipeg riding of Kirkfield Park. Could be interesting. It used to be a safe Tory seat but went NDP in 2007 and 2011 and if the swing against the Manitoba PCs that we see across the province is extrapolated to this seat - the byelection could be dicey for the PCs even though they won it handily in 2019.

[Benjamin Frank]

Umm, no comments? America isn't the world. I hate you all. Or, for the occassion, I hat you all.

Here. From Elections Alberta (with the exception of the censored part)
Brooks-Medicine Hat

DANIELLE SMITH UNITED CONSERVATIVE PARTY 6,923 54.5%
GWENDOLINE DIRK ALBERTA NDP 3,393 26.7%
BARRY MORIsh**tA ALBERTA PARTY 2,098 16.5%
BOB BLAYONE THE INDEPENDENCE PARTY OF ALBERTA 225 1.8%
JEEVAN MANGAT WILDROSE INDEPENDENCE PARTY OF ALBERTA 56 0.4%
Vote Total: 12,695
Elector Count: 34,532

[Benjamin Frank]

Especially regarding how the NDP might do in Red Deer.
(And maybe even Grande Prairie, but not likely Fort McMurray)

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1590201334833483776

[adma]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Alberta Party also got a fair bit of "anti-Danielle" vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Love how Alex was copying the NY Times colour schematics

Anyway, since BF posted the results, here are the swings:

UCP: -6.1%
NDP: +8.8%
AP: +9.6%
TIP: +0.8%

UCP HOLD (2 party avg swing: -7.5%)

The NDP's going to need a bigger swing than that to win province wide. Though, winning the Medicine Hat polls outright is a good sign.

ETA: According to ridingbuilder, the NDP won 23% here in 2015, so this is actually a very good result. The riding is just fairly inelastic.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Alberta Party also got a fair bit of "anti-Danielle" vote.

Maybe, but keep in mind the candidate there (so not to be censored again) wasn't just the Alberta Party leader but is also the past mayor of Brooks which is about 30% of the riding's population.

[lilTommy]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Alberta Party also got a fair bit of "anti-Danielle" vote.

Maybe, but keep in mind the candidate there (so not to be censored again) wasn't just the Alberta Party leader but is also the past mayor of Brooks which is about 30% of the riding's population.

So while it was an almost 10% increase for the AP, given the above, 16% is still rather "meh" for the party. If the Premier wasn't running here, the AP might have done better though

I don't see that increase translating provincewide; a 2-3% increase for the party? coming from anti-smith-but-can't-vote-NDP-ever-UCPers, sure that seems reasonable. Just enough to benefit the NDP in very close races, mostly in Calgary but perhaps, like mentioned, in Red Deer, Grande Prairie or Lethbridge

[RogueBeaver]

QS is already preparing for SHSA by renominating their GE candidate.

[Poirot]

There is a record of 40 candidates running in the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

Elections Canada says:
Forty candidates have been confirmed for the by-election currently under way in Mississauga–Lakeshore (Ontario). This is the largest number of candidates to run in any single electoral district in a federal election or by-election administered by Elections Canada.
As a result of the higher-than-usual number of candidates, Elections Canada has adapted the traditional ballot by using a two-column design. The changes maintain the ballot's standard integrity features and large font size.

The list of candidates can be found here:
https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=35061&EV=54&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=ON&PROVID=35&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

John Turmel is running. There are a great number of independent candidates with the same official agent including the leader of the rhinoceros party. They are protesting Trudeau's giving up on his promise of electoral reform.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/national/2022-11-25/election-partielle-en-ontario/nombre-record-de-40-candidats.php 

[adma]

There is a record of 40 candidates running in the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

Elections Canada says:
Forty candidates have been confirmed for the by-election currently under way in Mississauga–Lakeshore (Ontario). This is the largest number of candidates to run in any single electoral district in a federal election or by-election administered by Elections Canada.
As a result of the higher-than-usual number of candidates, Elections Canada has adapted the traditional ballot by using a two-column design. The changes maintain the ballot's standard integrity features and large font size.

The list of candidates can be found here:
https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=35061&EV=54&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=ON&PROVID=35&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

John Turmel is running. There are a great number of independent candidates with the same official agent including the leader of the rhinoceros party. They are protesting Trudeau's giving up on his promise of electoral reform.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/national/2022-11-25/election-partielle-en-ontario/nombre-record-de-40-candidats.php 

Okay, so this is a repeat of their 2021 "St Boniface-St Vital" strategy.  (And frankly, I find it's silly.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wonder if we'll get a candidate who wins 0 votes? Also, this could result in Turmel's lowest PV share, maybe ever? (This coming off his Brantford mayoral run, where he had his best result in 25 years and 60 elections)

[adma]

Wonder if we'll get a candidate who wins 0 votes? Also, this could result in Turmel's lowest PV share, maybe ever? (This coming off his Brantford mayoral run, where he had his best result in 25 years and 60 elections)

Of the St Boniface flock in '21, the lowest vote getter got 7 votes.  (I think there's been *someone* with a lower tally in some relatively recent election--1993 seems a banner year for fringe-party no-hopers)