Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[adma]

I don't think it's *that* shocking--the MB Libs have always been the most UK Lib Dem-like of the provincial Liberal parties in their stealth capacity to concentrate their energies upon certain strategic byelections.

And again, it's less about the wealth than about the cultural demographics of said wealth--there's a big gulf btw/the McMansions'n'monsters type of suburbanizing wealth (or even old-money Rosedale/Forest Hill-style wealth), and that which has been Jane-Jacobs-gentrified into being within the inner city, where it's a matter of buying into values that can run the gamut from Limousine Liberalism to Champagne Socialism, according to the climate...

[beesley]

So the extent to which it is a harbinger of good fortune for the Liberals is pretty limited?

[Oryxslayer]

So the extent to which it is a harbinger of good fortune for the Liberals is pretty limited?

More a Harbinger of problems for the Manitoba PC's, which shouldn't be surprising given Stephanson is just as or even more unpopular than Kenney according to polls.

[DL]

So the extent to which it is a harbinger of good fortune for the Liberals is pretty limited?

For the Manitoba Liberals its a case of "close but no cigar". If they had won they would have had a 4th seat which would have given them official party status and more money and profile and would possibly have given the appearance that they have momentum. But they lost and in a general election next year that will be totally polarized between the PCs and NDP - I suspect they will be lucky to keep 2 seats

[Hatman 🍁]

I agree; I thought the Liberals would win, "Lib Dem style" so it's definitely a missed opportunity IMO.

[mileslunn]

Horgan has called by-election for Vancouver-Quilchena and Kevin Falcon will be BC Liberal candidate.  Since this is a fairly wealthy and usually very safe BC Liberal riding, I expect they will hold this although results will be interesting to see can Falcon get party back into 60s like did in past or will it be stuck in 50s.  Likewise if NDP can get over 25% good showing, over 30% great showing.  Its the one Vancouver seat which is probably out of reach (Vancouver-Langara is winnable but not Vancouver-Quilchena).  Of areas that go federal Liberal, Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano probably two NDP cannot win as too much old money.

[mileslunn]

Stephanie Cadieux resigning so a by-election sometime later this year there as well.  Surrey South normally a solid BC Liberal riding, but NDP had a strong second place showing last time around.  BC Liberals probably have edge, but an NDP win is not inconceivable, especially if Greens do poorly while BC Conservatives run a candidate who can get 7-10% thus splitting it enough. 

Surprised though she didn't announce earlier as Kevin Falcon is from Surrey so this riding makes more sense than Vancouver-Quilchena.  On other hand, if he lost there, would be a huge embarrassment whereas almost no chance he loses Vancouver-Quilchena.

[Poirot]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Mainstreet poll of 431 people in the riding has CAQ at 43%, PQ at 36%, PLQ at 9%, PCQ 6% and QS 5%.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Legault has finally announced the date of the Marie-Victorin by-election, and it will be held on April 11th.

The candidates are:

Party	Candidate
Parti Québécois	Pierre Nantel
Coalition Avenir Québec	Shirley Dorismond
Québec solidaire	Shophika Vaithyanathasarma
Liberal	Émilie Nollet
Green	Alex Tyrrell
Conservative	Anne Casabonne
Climat Quebec	Martine Ouellet

Mainstreet poll of 431 people in the riding has CAQ at 43%, PQ at 36%, PLQ at 9%, PCQ 6% and QS 5%.

Wow, those are very bad numbers for PLQ and especially QS. QS got 22% of the vote there in 2018, to be polling 5% now is a crazy drop.

For people more familiar with QC politics, what do you think is going on there? Are left-wing voters coalescing around Nantel to stop CAQ? Or do you think this is just a flukey poll?

[Hatman 🍁]

How many QS voters do you think have landlines? I don't think it will be *that* bad; I'm thinking they'll likely get around 10%. Though it is a by-election, and they have a tendency  to turn into two-way races.

[RogueBeaver]

Philippe Fournier is unsure what happens but a PQ victory would be at odds with provincewide and regional public polling. My guess is a bipolar result and a narrow CAQ victory.

[DL]

I can't say that I have any "horse in the race" in Marie-Victorin. When push comes to shove, I guess I'd like to see the PQ lose since I don't like turncoats and Nantel is now running for his third different party and I think the PQ is now a totally defunct party and losing here would hasten their pathway to death as a political party. a will not shed a tear for that

[Poirot]

The Mainstreet poll maybe had QS too low. I think the PQ poll had it at 10-12% like PLQ.

Last election PLQ got 15% in 4th place. QS had over 21% so losing half is a lot but younger people probably vote less in byelection. It's not a general election so there is not the pull from the overall campaign. I don't know if the candidate has links to the riding. PQ won by 700 votes with over 30% of vote share. Considering the party has lost support since then it could be difficult to win but what can make it a possibility is their candidate who is well known. The CAQ is working hard to win, sending ministers to do door knocking with the candidate, Legault doing robocalls and virtual meeting with seniors.

Some profile data:

A total of 45,558 electors have been invited to exercise their right to vote in this byelection.

According to Statistics Canada, 83.4 per cent of the riding's population reports that French is the language most often spoken at home.

Visible minorities account for 19.5 per cent of Marie-Victorin's population, of which 43.8 per cent are Black, 16.2 per cent are Latin American and 16 per cent are of Arab origin.

The average income in Marie-Victorin is lower than the Quebec standard.

[Continential]

Also, the by-election is today.

[RogueBeaver]

Result page here.

[MaxQue]

Very happy to see that Climat Québec seems to do better than the Green Putinist.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/SebBovetSRC/status/1513687634916397060

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1513690428356366339

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/megbanks/status/1513690296227405828

[Oryxslayer]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

The biggest win in Quebec by seats (at last in 'modern' times) was the Quebec Liberals in 1973 under Robert Bourassa winnning 102 of the then 110 seats.  The Liberals lost the subsequent election in 1976.

[Vosem]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

The biggest win in Quebec by seats (at last in 'modern' times) was the Quebec Liberals in 1973 under Robert Bourassa winnning 102 of the then 110 seats.  The Liberals lost the subsequent election in 1976.

The most seats a Canadian federal political party has ever won was 211 for the PCs in 1984 (though it's not the greatest fraction of seats a Canadian party has ever won, but whatever); two elections later they were annihilated.

(This pattern is widespread in Canadian politics at every level. The greatest BC Socred win, in terms of seats, was the one right before they collapsed. Lots of Canadian political parties have collapsed in an 'all at once' manner. It's Canada.)

[Continential]

So who is the objective winner of the election? PCQ or the CAQ? The loser is definitely the PQ and the PLQ.

[adma]

I'm ready for the 100-seat CAQ majority that will be won with about 40% of the vote.

The biggest win in Quebec by seats (at last in 'modern' times) was the Quebec Liberals in 1973 under Robert Bourassa winnning 102 of the then 110 seats.  The Liberals lost the subsequent election in 1976.

The most seats a Canadian federal political party has ever won was 211 for the PCs in 1984 (though it's not the greatest fraction of seats a Canadian party has ever won, but whatever); two elections later they were annihilated.

(This pattern is widespread in Canadian politics at every level. The greatest BC Socred win, in terms of seats, was the one right before they collapsed. Lots of Canadian political parties have collapsed in an 'all at once' manner. It's Canada.)

And in Ontario, the Peterson Libs going from 95 seats in '87--the highest seat total ever for an Ontario government--to being upset by Bob Rae's NDP in '90.

[Estrella]

35% CAQ, 30% PQ, 14% QS, 10% PCQ, 7% PLQ. PSPP is probably regretting he didn't have a go - seems like he might've had a chance. Also lol Grits - come election, I won't be surprised if they'll be down to single digits in basically every seat outside Montréal/Laval/Gatineau (and possibly still end up as official opposition thanks to West Island).

[beesley]

(and possibly still end up as official opposition thanks to West Island).

Ironically, that would be rather reminiscent of how the Bloc became the federal opposition in 1993 (as you know).