EU and China approve Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI)

[Pick Up the Phone]

https://twitter.com/Trade_EU/status/1344275254517116933

Seems as if EU negotiators are having a busy end of the year. It also shows once again that both the EU and its member states are unwilling to support the confrontational anti-China stance of the US.

[2952-0-0]

It appears that China made virtually all the concessions, while the EU only made one concession.

Some of the Chinese concessions were that European companies can invest without limit in the Chinese telecom and banking sectors. Sounds great, until you consider one thing: these are state monopolies. And the CCP will not allow its monopolies in these areas to be jeopardized. So these concessions are not particularly meaningful.

As for your broader point, Europeans share much of the same concerns about China as the US, and quietly co-operated with the US on China-related issues. But they want to maintain their strategic autonomy and avoid the impression that Brussels is a junior partner to Washington.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its possible to think China is, overall, rather bad and still find the thirst for everything but all out war that a certain type of American has as less than helpful.

[urutzizu]

As for your broader point, Europeans share much of the same concerns about China as the US

We share concerns on the economic side of things for a level playing field for our companies. Thats it. Americans, Anglo-Saxons in general, do not seem to be able to understand why other societies would come to different conclusions over how they should be administrated. In Europe, besides the ideological hard liberals (Verhofstadt-type people), who are a fringe (though numerous on internet forums, no doubt), there is generally to be an indifference to how others administrate themselves. Europe only clashes with other Civilizations when its core interests are at stake, rather than ideologically, as the US does. As such the US, in particular, is led by democratic ideologues meanwhile in the EU, the CDU and other centre-right parties, are the political vehicles of economic interest.

When the incoming Biden administation made it clear that it was going to continue to persist in insisting the US' ideological interests, rather that the US and EU's common economic interest in regards to China, and Expect the EU to acquiesce, the EU snubbed them and made separate peace:  
https://twitter.com/jakejsullivan/status/1341180109118726144

And it will be the first of a string of such disappointments for the Biden Team. It's why US Democrats Idea of a "summit of democracy" style alliance against authoritarianism was always deeply naive, and was cringed at by many in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, but also Seoul and other places. Next four years will likely see Core 4 US-UK-CA-Aus working very closely on these matters, but beyond that, transatlantic thaw will not happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .


It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

[2952-0-0]

We share concerns on the economic side of things for a level playing field for our companies. Thats it. Americans, Anglo-Saxons in general, do not seem to be able to understand why other societies would come to different conclusions over how they should be administrated. In Europe, besides the ideological hard liberals (Verhofstadt-type people), who are a fringe (though numerous on internet forums, no doubt), there is generally to be an indifference to how others administrate themselves. Europe only clashes with other Civilizations when its core interests are at stake, rather than ideologically, as the US does. As such the US, in particular, is led by democratic ideologues meanwhile in the EU, the CDU and other centre-right parties, are the political vehicles of economic interest.

But Brussels has identified China as a "systemic rival" on par with Putin's Russia and Islamic fundamentalists. That didn't generate many headlines in Europe, but definitely in China, where words have much more meaning. That seems like a core interest to me. Since China's economic policies are deeply tied to its political system, this means that China's political system itself poses a threat to Europe's core interests, even if not quite the way Washington sees it.

European leaders have become more mature thanks to the Trump Administration's antics. When Trump tweeted that Europe should spend more to defend itself, Europe's political class balked in public - but privately, they agree. The global environment that allowed Europe to prosper post-WW2 was underpinned in large part by US power, and if the US isn't so reliable, then Europe needs to do more to protect itself.

Many European governments have already recognized this, such as France's arms sales to Taiwan, the Dutch refusing to export EUV machines to China, Germany and Brussels giving themselves more rights to veto M&As, Huawei being increasingly shut out of Europe's 5G networks, etc. Ironically, for all the handwringing about Germans dominating Brussels, China's brand of state-backed capitalism is causing the idea that Europe should build its global champions to gain traction, so that Europe can be respected as a global power. Charles de Gaulle would be proud.

Anyway, to conclude, the EU-China deal won't be quite what it seems, because China cannot fully achieve its commitments without undermining its own economic system, which is deeply linked to its political system. It has a tendency of allowing full competition in sectors where there are already plenty of domestic players, while ensuring that sectors with big state-owned enterprises don't face real competition. A real market economy requires genuine separation of powers and an independent judiciary. The day that China seriously introduces these is the first nail in the CCP's coffin.

[brucejoel99]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

[brucejoel99]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.

The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

Sir, this is a Wendy's.

[Former President tack50]

I am sorely disappointed with this deal. While I disagree with Trump's solutions; the EU should try to trade less with China, no more. Trump correctly diagnosed the problem, it's just that his prescribed medicine made things worse.

There are plenty of other, better countries to trade with if need be.

[PSOL]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

The sheer @$$pain here is glorious

[Former President tack50]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

A policy like that, if anything, would bring the EU and US further apart, not closer together. Why would the EU suddenly support a country that actively seeks to undermine its  foreign policy decisions?

Not to mention that sanctioning the EU while making countries that don't follow EU rules not suffer the sanctions would make little sense given how the single market works (I guess it could make things harder to figure out but I am sure some sort of deal will be reached in the EU, that's how things work)

As for "the world was better off when the US was the only western power"; the US are still the only western power?

By definition China isn't western, and the EU is not a country (and Germany/France aren't large or powerful enough on their own)

[dead0man]

I hope it's a good deal for Europe, and if it's not, well, they made their bed, they deserve to sleep in it.

[Green Line]

Decouple from Europe.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

US should just take care of their own business. Millions of people living in poverty, having no healthcare..

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

like poland, hungary and turkey???

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

No, it wasn't...

[jaichind]

In 2020 I think the PRC most likely overtook USA as EU's largest trading partner.  In the end it is all about the money.  In Mexico they have a saying "With money the dog dances, without money one dances like a dog".  Given the financial and economic incentives it seems both sides wanted to get this out of the way before Biden shows up and tries to block this.

[Horus]

Not good. China should be isolated from the world along with Russia, not catered to.

[CumbrianLefty]

Decouple from Europe.

I see the Trumpoids are strong in this thread.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

*looks at the Middle East* Uh huh...

[dead0man]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

*looks at the Middle East* Uh huh...

yeah, 'cause the Middle East was paradise during the Cold War and earlier!

[Diabolical Materialism]

Totally disgraceful, it’s time for the US to retaliate by sanctioning the EU as well . We should do all in our power to create more Brexits in Europe and make sure the anti American pro Chinese EU gets dismantled completely.

The way to do that is exempt nations from sanctions if they defy EU rules .

It’s clear the world was a better place when the US was the only major Western power and we need to do all in our power to return to that

OSR offering a bad take on international relations? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell ya!!

The EU is a pro Chinese organization now and they need to suffer consequences for it . The EU is also anti American and we should oppose any anti American organizations.


The goal of US Foreign policy now should be to advance our power as it’s clear the world was better off when the US was the only Western power

*looks at the Middle East* Uh huh...

yeah, 'cause the Middle East was paradise during the Cold War and earlier!

Not saying it was, but the US had an active role from the Gulf War to the Arab Spring in making it much much worse.

[dead0man]

and I'm saying it's not really worse than it was before the US got further involved post Cold War.  Iraq vs Iran lasted a decade, the amount of terrorism in the 70s is shocking...really, the only time the ME has ever been at "peace" was when the Ottomans had an authoritarian stranglehold on everything or when two regional powers were at peace but that only lasts until one of them thinks they can do something to change things.

The US/West haven't been particularly helpful in brining peace post Cold War and no, the Middle East isn't special in regards to being in near constant war for 4000 years, it's true of nearly every place humans have lived in any numbers.  I'm just saying the Middle East isn't any more screwed up post Gulf War I than they were before.  Different kind of screwed up, sure.  Certainly not "much much worse".

[Zinneke]

Always amuses me when I hear Brussels did this, Brussels believes that. The fact is that whilst DG Trade and a whole bunch of corporate lobby groups are popping the champagne open over this deal, another DG will be tearing its hair out. Maybe not as powerful as DG Trade, but definitely with support in national capitals - the most notable exception being the increasingly naive Berlin.

DG Trade can't see the wood from the trees. They and some of the Single Market orientated DGs have zero strategic long term views, they are all from a school of thought of "normative foreign policy", patting themselves on the back for being amazing at writing regulations - when China breaks and encourages the breaking of most international regulations anyway. Meet with some EEAS officials and there is just a sigh and a "well...." - they know the score better than the Bruges College kids.

More and more people in the EU foreign policy bubble are coming to the same conclusion as the Americans. Its not about defending Western values or whatever. Its simply the fact that China is acting as a rogue state when it comes to their international obligations, especially so as an emerging Great Power.

And by the way, I disagree urizitsu that this turn towards a hostile relationship with China is somehow about how China administers itself. China's governance model hasn't changed, the guy at the top and his ideology and saber rattling policies has been the fundemental change. And since its ascension to the WTO it hasn't fulfilled its commitments. It just keeps undercutting EU and US labour because we actually have labour standards and they don't. They have ethnic minorities to put in labour camps.


Nobody, not a single US or EU official has called for regime change in China because they know the consequences are likely dire (and its nigh-impossible anyway). Let's not caricaturize us China sceptics please.

[Velasco]

I'm amazed to discover I' m a citizen of a pro-Chinese organization.

OMG, what can we do? The Chinese are going to implant the 5G chip into us!

. Nobody, not a single US or EU official has called for regime change in China because they know the consequences are likely dire (and its nigh-impossible anyway). Let's not caricaturize us China sceptics please.

I get your point and think that criticism and scepticism are correct and neccessary. It's only that you don't need to be a PRC fan to laugh at certain hyperbolic rants. Also, I'm not a PRC fan but in no way I am willing to support US imperialism and the return to the Cold War. The world is changing and turning more complicated.  Multilateralism is the way to go

[Diabolical Materialism]

and I'm saying it's not really worse than it was before the US got further involved post Cold War.  Iraq vs Iran lasted a decade, the amount of terrorism in the 70s is shocking...really, the only time the ME has ever been at "peace" was when the Ottomans had an authoritarian stranglehold on everything or when two regional powers were at peace but that only lasts until one of them thinks they can do something to change things.

The US/West haven't been particularly helpful in brining peace post Cold War and no, the Middle East isn't special in regards to being in near constant war for 4000 years, it's true of nearly every place humans have lived in any numbers.  I'm just saying the Middle East isn't any more screwed up post Gulf War I than they were before.  Different kind of screwed up, sure.  Certainly not "much much worse".

I think that's fundamentally untrue. Iraq in the 70s and 80s was certainly no paradise between Saddam's regime and the Iran-Iraq war, but the sheer chaos that Iraq has been thrown into by the United States since 1991 has killed hundreds of thousands of people and kept the country in a state of perpetual conflict for almost thirty years now. There's essentially no hope for a stable Iraq at this point, not for the next few generations. The country's infrastructure, which at one time was considered excellent for the region, shows no real signs of ever really recovering.

Syria has had issues with Islamic fundamentalists causing low-levels of unrest going back to the 70s, but nothing on the scale or rapaciousness of ISIS. Hafez Al-Assad's brutal handling of the Muslim Brotherhood's revolts in the 70s and 80s were fairly effective in keeping the conflict from turning into an all out civil war. Damascus and the major cities of Syria (outside of Hama) were kept relatively safe and intact.  But the Arab Spring and the United States' arming of supposedly "moderate rebels" against his son in 2011 proved to be more difficult to control. I personally don't foresee a Syrian Civil War on the scale and with the human toll we know it without American meddling.

The way that the Gaddafi regime was removed in Libya has been absolutely disastrous for the country. The United States and the rest of NATO were very efficient in helping local dissenters remove Gaddafi, but essentially turned a blind eye while disparate armed factions carved the country up and turned it into a war zone. The conflict has absolutely destroyed the infrastructure of Libya, emboldened Islamic fundamentalist groups, displaced thousands of people and kept the country in a state of civil war for ten years now. Say what you will about Gaddafi, he absolutely sucked, but the slave markets we see popping up in Libya are a very new development.