GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9

[skbl17]

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

Regular:
Ossoff (D): 50%
Perdue (R): 43%
Undecided: 7%

Special:
Warnock (D): 53%
Loeffler (R): 44%
Undecided: 3%

wut

[skbl17]

FWIW, I do think these margins would be somewhat plausible if the election was today. Thing is, the election is not today, and I have a very hard time believing that so few voters will show up on election day.

Anyway, the 538 averages have been updated: Warnock +2, Ossoff +1. This poll was corrected down to a still insane Ossoff +6/Warnock +7.

[skbl17]

Just remember, GA polls were the most accurate of any state in the general. Or close to it at least.

To be fair, the averages were on point. We had plenty of crazy outliers here: Trafalgar (Trump +5), Quinnipiac (Biden +7), Monmouth (Biden +5). SurveyUSA wasn't that far off (+2 Biden vs. +0.25 actual).

Right now, the averages are:

- Ossoff +1 (538)/+3.2 (270toWin)/+0.8 (RCP)
- Warnock +2 (538)/+4 (270toWin)/+1.8 (RCP)

RCP does not include this poll but does include Trafalgar. 538 and 270toWin include both.