GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9
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  GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9
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Author Topic: GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9  (Read 5153 times)
skbl17
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« on: December 30, 2020, 10:14:56 AM »
« edited: December 30, 2020, 10:18:47 AM by skbl17 »

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf

Regular:
Ossoff (D): 50%
Perdue (R): 43%
Undecided: 7%

Special:
Warnock (D): 53%
Loeffler (R): 44%
Undecided: 3%

wut
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Zache
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2020, 10:19:29 AM »

God, I wish. I don't believe it though.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2020, 10:24:11 AM »

Well, if they were right that only 7% of votes will be cast on Runoff Day, this result would be plausible. Seems crazy, but, hey, we'll know what to expect if turnout seems to be near-zero on Jan. 5.
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ibagli
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2020, 10:24:32 AM »

Well, good for them for putting themselves out there.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2020, 10:25:32 AM »

With leaners, it's:

Ossoff 53
Perdue 45

Warnock 54
Loeffler 45

What's gonna be the discourse if the results look even remotely similar to these?
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2020, 10:25:48 AM »

Is this a good pollster? All I know is the guy seems pretty well liked and respected on a bipartisan basis on election/political twitter.
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Zache
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2020, 10:27:07 AM »

With leaners, it's:

Ossoff 53
Perdue 45

Warnock 54
Loeffler 45

What's gonna be the discourse if the results look even remotely similar to these?

Probably the same as it is now, Georgia is Virginia 2.0.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2020, 10:30:18 AM »

Yeah I.. strongly doubt these results
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2020, 10:32:54 AM »

Majority Leader Schumer 😃😃😃 and DC Statehood and 2K checks.  And PR statehood in 2022
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cp
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2020, 10:34:34 AM »

With leaners, it's:

Ossoff 53
Perdue 45

Warnock 54
Loeffler 45

What's gonna be the discourse if the results look even remotely similar to these?

Probably the same as it is now, Georgia is Virginia 2.0.

With a heavy dash of 'Trump screwed us royally'
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OneJ
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2020, 10:35:24 AM »

Not that I needed this poll to confirm my assumption based on the EV data so far that Ossoff and Warnock are the favorites, but wow does it make me feel even more confident in the both of them!

Is this a good pollster? All I know is the guy seems pretty well liked and respected on a bipartisan basis on election/political twitter.

He was basically spot on for the 2019 Louisiana Governor runoff (47% Edwards vs. 46% Rispone; actual results were 51-49 Edwards).
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skbl17
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2020, 10:37:14 AM »

FWIW, I do think these margins would be somewhat plausible if the election was today. Thing is, the election is not today, and I have a very hard time believing that so few voters will show up on election day.

Anyway, the 538 averages have been updated: Warnock +2, Ossoff +1. This poll was corrected down to a still insane Ossoff +6/Warnock +7.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2020, 10:38:38 AM »

If Republican turnout does implode on election day like this poll is suggesting, I think these are plausible results. I'm not sold on the idea of that actually happening, but it's not impossible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2020, 10:42:37 AM »

2K checks and Trump helped D's pushed this race for D's, 600 which comes out of SSA Trust fund and our taxes anyways and Rs raided SSA funds for millionaires in 2017 clearly isn't enough
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2020, 10:44:38 AM »

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?
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VAR
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2020, 10:46:37 AM »

lol
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2020, 10:51:47 AM »

Also the respondents were 55% female and 45% male. Is the gender gap expected to be that big?

According to https://www.georgiavotes.com/, the early vote so far is 55.5/44.3 female.  If the Election Day vote is really that small a share of the overall turnout, this would be reasonable.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2020, 10:53:14 AM »

If Republican turnout does implode on election day like this poll is suggesting, I think these are plausible results. I'm not sold on the idea of that actually happening, but it's not impossible.

This. It's entirely possible that this poll is wrong and that Rs show up on ED. But judging from what we've seen, it's not entirely impossible.

If these results do happen, I wouldn't say it means Virginia 2.0, it just means that GA is evolving and also that Democrats were just way more motivated for this particular runoff.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2020, 11:00:19 AM »

Those numbers are absolutely brutal for the Republicans.

But let’s not yet hatch the chickens before they are counted ...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2020, 11:06:06 AM »

The racial turnout appears to be 61% white, 29% black, and 10% other, which seems plausible given the early vote so far
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Pollster
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« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2020, 11:11:20 AM »

Strongly doubt this result (I still anticipate the range of possible outcomes being between 52/48 in either direction) but if this outcome materializes I have to imagine much of the blame will be placed at McConnell’s feet, and Dems will be emboldened to pass another stimulus early in Biden’s term.
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roxas11
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« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2020, 11:27:49 AM »

I do think its kind of crazy that the GOP seems to be betting everyting on the idea that they are going to have this crazy turnout that either equals or surpass the 2020 presidential election turnout in GA

now dont get me wrong betting on historically high turnout is not such a bad strategy when you have someone like Trump is on the ballot but in a runoff I really Have to wonder how many people are going to show up in vote and vote if Trump himelf is the not on the ballot.

I'm not saying that republicans will not show up at all but It would not shock me if election day turnout ends up looking more like a typical low turnout runoff and less like a presidential election

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WD
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« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2020, 11:28:18 AM »

Don’t do that, don’t give me hope.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2020, 11:33:11 AM »

But, Bagel told us that Perdue was favored, yeah right
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2020, 11:46:21 AM »

I won't ever believe polls that are this exciting ever again but if the result ends up anywhere near this poll then I will be very happy.
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