GA (JMC Analytics) - Ossoff +7, Warnock +9

[wbrocks67]

If Republican turnout does implode on election day like this poll is suggesting, I think these are plausible results. I'm not sold on the idea of that actually happening, but it's not impossible.

This. It's entirely possible that this poll is wrong and that Rs show up on ED. But judging from what we've seen, it's not entirely impossible.

If these results do happen, I wouldn't say it means Virginia 2.0, it just means that GA is evolving and also that Democrats were just way more motivated for this particular runoff.

[wbrocks67]

The racial turnout appears to be 61% white, 29% black, and 10% other, which seems plausible given the early vote so far

[wbrocks67]

If this type of result would happen, it would just prove that the GOP is way less reliable when Trump is not on the ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Just remember, GA polls were the most accurate of any state in the general. Or close to it at least.

To be fair, the averages were on point. We had plenty of crazy outliers here: Trafalgar (Trump +5), Quinnipiac (Biden +7), Monmouth (Biden +5). SurveyUSA wasn't that far off (+2 Biden vs. +0.25 actual).

Right now, the averages are:

- Ossoff +1 (538)/+3.2 (270toWin)/+0.8 (RCP)
- Warnock +2 (538)/+4 (270toWin)/+1.8 (RCP)

RCP does not include this poll but does include Trafalgar. 538 and 270toWin include both.

Yeah, I think the averages on 538 are pretty good right now. They point to a +1 Ossoff/+2 Warnock race, which is completely possible/believable

[wbrocks67]

Not a good pollster.

Not necessarily true. Their 2019 LA GOV poll, which also was "off year" wth no Trump on the ballot, was very good.