IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

The NYGOP is up sh**t's creak, they democrats gained a super majority in the state senate giving them control of redistricting

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

Polarization has increased since 2014, The kind of swingy collar counties that allowed Rauner to win just don't swing anymore nearly enough down the ballot.

Furthermore, I don't these party games overly impact how people will vote unless there's an actual bitter primary challenge against Pritzker. Unless some scandal breaks for Pritzker I fail to see how this race is anything other than Safe-D*.

*If people can rate DeSanti's re-election with middling approval, a winning margin of 0.4% in a state that voted from by 3% as Likley R. I fail to see how Illinois can be anything other than Safe D.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

Polarization has increased since 2014, The kind of swingy collar counties that allowed Rauner to win just don't swing anymore nearly enough down the ballot.

Furthermore, I don't these party games overly impact how people will vote unless there's an actual bitter primary challenge against Pritzker. Unless some scandal breaks for Pritzker I fail to see how this race is anything other than Safe-D*.

*If people can rate DeSanti's re-election with middling approval, a winning margin of 0.4% in a state that voted from by 3% as Likley R. I fail to see how Illinois can be anything other than Safe D.

In IL there was enough swing in some of the down ballot races that allowed Pubs to pick up legislative seats even as Biden won handily. At the congressional level Underwood had a much closer race in 2020 than in 2018, which suggests that there was ballot splitting at that level, too.

The internal party fights affect Pritzker's ability to move an agenda. The danger isn't from a primary, it's from the public feeling that he isn't getting things done.

There are enough examples of solid Dem northern states with solid D legislative control, but the voters are willing to go with a moderate Pub in the Gov's office even with the current polarization.

Republican gained 1 house seat, that's a terrible showing given how many house seats they lost in 2018 and with the democrats explicitly running on a plan to raise taxes on the newly realigned suburban voters with a referendum driving turnout of voter inclined against that.

I just don't see where the voters for making Pritzer vunerable are going to come from especially with the new stimulus plan removing some of the fiscal pressure on the state. The democrating ceiling in the state has fallen but their flow has risen to the point there's no reason to think that Pritzker is vuenrbale.

Pritzker also has some wins in terms of the legalizing marrijuna and the new cash bail reform that should be enough to placate progressive into turning out for him even if he stumbles a bit in terms of legislative agenda.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Republican gained 1 house seat, that's a terrible showing given how many house seats they lost in 2018 and with the democrats explicitly running on a plan to raise taxes on the newly realigned suburban voters with a referendum driving turnout of voter inclined against that.

In the run up to the 2020 election, Pubs were forecast to lose an additional 3 to 5 seats. That's not counting the seat where the incumbent R announced plans to move, didn't resign, and didn't campaign (which unsurprisingly flipped to D). The Pubs way over-performed expectations. No one in this state would call it a terrible showing.

Polling on the graduated tax amendment was quite positive in the early summer of 2020. The governor had invested a tremendous amount of financial and political capital to get it on the ballot. But by Labor Day experienced observers were telling the governor and his team that they were seeing growing weakness in the amendment's support outside of the yes-no polling. But the governor did not listen or react to shore up support. When opponents launched a well-funded fall campaign that capitalized on the emerging weakness in support, the governor's team was caught flat-footed.

The tax amendment didn't just lose, it lost by a much wider margin than expected (45% yes). It definitely went against the notion that it should do about as well as Biden (58%). That's 13% drop-off for an amendment pitched as negatively impacting only 3% of the population. That kind of drop-off from the top of the ticket was another sign that IL voters still maintained voting elasticity in 2020. There is polarization in IL, but we are not as polarized compared to the nation as a whole.

Democrats as a whole vastly underperformed expectations down-ballot in 2020, Democrats still kept the vast majority of their 2018 gains. It's a bad figure to use because of uncontested seats but the republican margin in the statehouse popular vote only improved by 0.05% compared to an absolutely dismal showing in 2018. The republican overperformed expectations but the expectations themselves were incredibly low, they failed to gain back a single congressional seat. Sean Casten representing a district originally drawn to be a republican pack in west chicago was one of the few houses freshmen to improve their performance from 2018. Compared to the National GOP, the Illinois GOP performed poorly.


Voters might be ideologically split but that doesn't translate to the flexibility when it comes to partishanship. Medicare expansion ballots passed in Idaho, Missouri and Oklahoma. California rejected a whole swath of progressive ballots in 2020. That doesn't change the fact that those states are very much safe territory for one party. Where exactly are the voters for a successful republican gubernation bid going to come from ?

Pritzker ran a poor campagin for the fair tax amendment and it's clear that the unpopular of Madigan also hurt that campagin but you can't rate him vulnerable based on a failed campagin for a ballot measure raising taxes. Given his approvals have held-up and the state is safe for his party.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://abc7chicago.com/rod-blagojevich-illinois-governor-what-is-doing-now-exclusive/10923509/

Blago wants to be governor again and is suing so he can run again.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The one and only Rod Blagojevich is trying to be able to run for political office. He would probably be a better contender than the jokes currently running for republican nom.

How so? I couldn't find any info he attempts to run for office again.

He sued to get his impeachment Bar removed.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/rod-blagojevich-files-lawsuit-seeking-right-to-run-for-office-in-illinois-again/2577146/