IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

The GOP is running quite a lot of black candidates for key races this cycle. I don't understand why they seem to always have such a hard time moderating on messaging when they could have real potential to reach out in communities the GOP doesn't ordinarily win, especially since someone like Pritzker can be painted as part of the IL elite Dem machine.

Irvin has potential, but I don't think he's going to use it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There is a bad feeling in the air and I don’t like it. Outside of downballot incompetence and the Republican likelihood of sweeping the Supreme Court, the governor race may be somewhat more competitive after all. It won’t be like with New Jersey where due to just demographics the Democrats were saved, but it is going to be a defeat of morale nonetheless.

I’m getting reports from people I know that the Democratic auxiliaries are out in full force right now, and I doubt they get saved from the thrashing coming up.

i mean it’s IL, surely Dems will still win sizable majorities in both houses of the legislature? I strongly doubt Dems are in any danger of losing their hold on the state.

Illinois does tend to swing wildly in midterms. Democrats are not in danger of losing their legislative majorities, but there's a good chance they lose supermajority status in the House and Senate.

On a very good night, Republicans may even be able to pick up a row office, one or two congressional seats and give Pritzker a real scare.

IMO what will be the most consequential is if Rs can flip the court as that would actually give them some level of power.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

Its Pritzker, is there an incumbent governor in this nation who you can see blowing a race before him? Cause I cant. He should win on sheer turnout, but hes literally the only governor in the nation I could see blowing a massive lead out of sheer unlikability and the disaster that is illinois right now.

Dont disagree with your points though

I agree, though from what I've heard he doesn't seem particuarly unpopular and was decently well liked not too long ago. Though again I'm not from IL and don't have the best understanding of it's local politics

If he does take his race for granted we could get a NJ-Gov 2021 redux

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bailey is again going around calling Chicago a “hellhole.” The funniest part is that he thinks people who live here agree with him. He is badly out of touch with the northern part of the state and he’s going to lose bigly for it.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2022/08/19/baileys-back-with-hell-hole-00052844

(Not to say people here don’t realize Chicago has problems)

I think it may be an attempt to try and swing a few suburbs his way. For all the stereotyping about the tension between whiter suburbs and inner-city minorities, these scaer tactics sometimes do work, just probably not enough to win, especially since a lot of whiter suburbs of Chicago are extremely liberal and would be turned off by this rhetoric.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bailey is again going around calling Chicago a “hellhole.” The funniest part is that he thinks people who live here agree with him. He is badly out of touch with the northern part of the state and he’s going to lose bigly for it.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2022/08/19/baileys-back-with-hell-hole-00052844

(Not to say people here don’t realize Chicago has problems)

I think it may be an attempt to try and swing a few suburbs his way. For all the stereotyping about the tension between whiter suburbs and inner-city minorities, these scaer tactics sometimes do work, just probably not enough to win, especially since a lot of whiter suburbs of Chicago are extremely liberal and would be turned off by this rhetoric.

The only audience for calling Chicago a “hellhole” are downstate right wingers. Talking about crime in Chicago would resonate with suburbanites, but throwing the entire city under the bus will not. People from the suburbs come into the city to do things, cheer for Chicago sports teams, and generally have a strong cultural connection to the city.

Not saying it'll work by any means; prolly does him more harm than good, but in a more polarized Southern State it may not be as bad of a ploy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pritzker is indeed running a low energy campaign that only appeals to democratic-inclined voters, but he is a sure in to win. It’s looking relatively bad downballot with Democrats slimming their majority in the legislature.

I sense a lack of enthusiasm for downballot Democrats thanks to anger over crime and the SAFE T act.  Pritzker isn’t talking about anything but abortion.  Bailey is too toxic to win, but what are your thoughts on the IL supreme court races and SoS.

The Supreme Court races will go in a disappointing direction for Democrats. SoS is safe Dem though.

Admittedly crime is a factor and it isn’t helping in the suburbs, but a lot of it seems to rest on hatred and dissatisfaction from Democrats nationally. Not helping that Pritzker himself is campaigning like Hillary Clinton, so who knows what sort of losses will be done in depressing turnout and even flipping many Hispanic and Black voters.

Do you think Rs flip the Illinois Supreme Court? I kinda assumed post Roe Dems should be favored in that Biden + 14 suburban seat but idk.