IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[Rjjr77]

Pritzker has a lot of problems, and isn't well liked, but unless a time machine brings 1994 Jim Edgar back, I dont see anyone they have that can actually win right now. Now a republican will win governor of Illinois in the next 12 years, but thats because Illinois is an epic disaster and there will be blowback against someone.

Illinois really needs term limits for their legislature, it would normalize the state so much.

[Rjjr77]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

[Rjjr77]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

Its Pritzker, is there an incumbent governor in this nation who you can see blowing a race before him? Cause I cant. He should win on sheer turnout, but hes literally the only governor in the nation I could see blowing a massive lead out of sheer unlikability and the disaster that is illinois right now.

Dont disagree with your points though