IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[Suburbia]

The ungovernable state of Illinois will have a gubernatorial election in 2022, in a Biden midterm.

People are moving out of IL for the 8th straight year. People are moving out of IL to move to IN, AZ, FL and other places deemed "low-tax".

Rightists are saying "Don't come to our state with your policies". What do you think?

But I rate IL-GOV 2022 as Lean D.

IL GOP are looking at a post-Rauner, post-Kirk future with Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts mulling a run for governor.

http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/December-2020/Todd-Ricketts-Illinois-Republicans-2022/

[Suburbia]

Pritzker isn't safe, because an Illinois governor will always make a lot of enemies, but I think Republicans will make their strongest play for a row office. Probably Secretary of State, which is likely to be an open seat. I don't know who they might nominate, because I think it plays out like the 2018 AG race, where Democrats have a crowded primary and Republicans find someone who they largely clear the field for.

Kirk Dillard could beat Pritzker in 2022.

Pritzker is a rich progressive, but he is unhealthy. He should lose weight. He has no political future outside of IL, maybe future DNC chair.

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker

Lean Pritzker.

Ricketts, Dold, Dillard or Matt Murphy could complement the ILGOP bench.

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker

Lean Pritzker.

Ricketts, Dold, Dillard or Matt Murphy could complement the ILGOP bench.

None of them would stand a chance in a primary and would still struggle immensely in the general

Murphy or Jason Plummer can win the primary.

Jeanne Ives can upset Pritzker if more population loss happens. She can win DuPage and Lake.

Pritzker needs to try to get Madigan lost and make sure Giannoulias is on the ticket so young voters can vote D en masse.

[Suburbia]

Pritzker isn't safe, because an Illinois governor will always make a lot of enemies, but I think Republicans will make their strongest play for a row office. Probably Secretary of State, which is likely to be an open seat. I don't know who they might nominate, because I think it plays out like the 2018 AG race, where Democrats have a crowded primary and Republicans find someone who they largely clear the field for.

Giannoulias would beat that ILGOPer by 10 points, he's learned his lesson after his 12-year hiatus.

[Suburbia]

Why does Prtizker lose? I doubt he will, but a lot can change in 2 years.

Lockdown fatigue, Madigan, ILDEM issues, and taxes and the exodus.

People are fleeing Illinois for the eighth year in a row.

Something has to change for Illinois' economy and Democrats should focus on Downstate as they do Chicago. Have town halls in Champaign, in Springfield, in St. Clair, etc.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-illinois-population-census-exodus-20201222-ukwt63e6gvh3xnnvgzoidmx6su-story.html

[Suburbia]

Pritzker wins but posts a worse showing downstate than Quinn did.

If Jim Edgar wants to fix IL politics like it was in the 1990s, he could run and he could win.

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

The NYGOP is up sh**t's creak, they democrats gained a super majority in the state senate giving them control of redistricting

They made inroads on Long Island........

[Suburbia]

Pritzker is scandal free, he isn't Pat Quinn, Safe D

Likely D. Most Illinois politicians are corrupt, Barack Obama was a different breed.

Anything can happen to Pritzker. Anything.

Lt. Gov. Stratton is governor in waiting......

The ILGOP needs to nominate someone who can hold and inspire the downstate conservative/moderate base and also appeal to suburbanites (DuPage)......

[Suburbia]

Would Blago attempt to run in the Republican primaries? Because if so, I expect a lot of Republican voters to not show up on Election Day if he wins.

He can’t.  He’s barred from ever holding office in the state again.

This. Blago is finished. Period.

[Suburbia]

Lean D/Likely D, but a DuPage suburban Republican could oust him if JB is found in a corruption scheme by October 2022

[Suburbia]

Do you see Chicago police union president John Catanaza running as a Republican?

[Suburbia]

Pritzker has a lot of problems, and isn't well liked, but unless a time machine brings 1994 Jim Edgar back, I dont see anyone they have that can actually win right now. Now a republican will win governor of Illinois in the next 12 years, but thats because Illinois is an epic disaster and there will be blowback against someone.

Illinois really needs term limits for their legislature, it would normalize the state so much.

Illinois Republicans can do well in the row offices....they can defeat Alexi Giannoulias for Secy. of State, and they could win the Attorney General's office if they run suburban or Downstate Republicans for those seats

[Suburbia]

The GOP is running quite a lot of black candidates for key races this cycle. I don't understand why they seem to always have such a hard time moderating on messaging when they could have real potential to reach out in communities the GOP doesn't ordinarily win, especially since someone like Pritzker can be painted as part of the IL elite Dem machine.

Irvin has potential, but I don't think he's going to use it.

Ann Coulter and Rick Shaftan types don't want the GOP to appeal to Black voters, because they will see nothing in return. Republicans will get 5%-10% of the black vote depending on the candidate; Tom Kean and Jim Edgar did well with Black voters because they appealed to Black voters aggressively and Democrats took black voters for granted.

[Suburbia]

The ILGOP will regroup, and 2026 they could take the AG spot.....or the Comptroller spot