IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[JGibson]

Hypocrite Darren Bailey (R-Eastern Bloc): running against mask mandates and COVID mitigations, yet instituted them for the Bailey Family Farm.

CapitolFax.

Despite Bailey’s walkout, lawsuits, and campaign rhetoric, masks have been required for stretches during the pandemic in a downstate area he represents.

Specifically, per documents on file with the federal government, face coverings are required for certain workers at the Bailey Family Farm, where according to Bailey’s campaign website, he grew up.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/capitolfax/status/1517193456375894018?s=20&t=3tkcTg1W8zZ...

JB has basically done everything he said he was going to do when he ran four years ago. What a breath of fresh air in Illinois politics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Trump endorses Bailey. lmao.

[Mr. Matt]

Kinda funny how pretty much everyone after JB won in '18 said he'd be the next Illinois governor to go to the slammer but yet he persisted and seems on-track to win reelection. (unless everyone thought it would be during the second term when he'd go)

[PSOL]

Kinda funny how pretty much everyone after JB won in '18 said he'd be the next Illinois governor to go to the slammer but yet he persisted and seems on-track to win reelection. (unless everyone thought it would be during the second term when he'd go)

JB was saved by three things that made people love him.

1. The legislature pushing progressive policies that he went ahead and signed due to Illinois’s economy being so bad that he couldn’t veto it. Weed is the main thing but there are others.

2. A successful Covid policy well supported and messaged to old urban women. He did his best to keep masks on and keep people alive.

3. Skillful sidelining of the opposition within the party. Winning against Madigan has made passing the rest of his agenda much easier.

The demographics of Illinois makes a Republican win unlikely, and ethnic small businessmen white or otherwise have a place within the long-standing democratic party here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump endorses Bailey. lmao.

Bailey is PRO LIFE HE HAS NO Chance NOW IN IL, Rauner and Kirk and Dillard were moderates


The Rs are making a big mistake not nominating Sullivan he has Kirk Appeal , and Sullivan should of ran for the Senate

[Politician]

Sullivan probably would have been able to make this a competitive race (he's a Youngkin type, conservative but acceptable to moderates) but of course Trump only cares about his precious endorsement record.

[PSOL]

Sullivan had no chance either, the best the GOP can put up is Bailey to energize the base

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Was surprised to hear that Bailey had been endorsed by Trump. I had thought he would've endorsed Sullivan but I had guessed wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Was surprised to hear that Bailey had been endorsed by Trump. I had thought he would've endorsed Sullivan but I had guessed wrong.

Have you seen the polls Sullivan is 20 pts behind Bailey

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Was surprised to hear that Bailey had been endorsed by Trump. I had thought he would've endorsed Sullivan but I had guessed wrong.

Have you seen the polls Sullivan is 20 pts behind Bailey

Admittedly I had not. I think the last time I had checked the specific polls was in early May.

[Rjjr77]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

[Rjjr77]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

Its Pritzker, is there an incumbent governor in this nation who you can see blowing a race before him? Cause I cant. He should win on sheer turnout, but hes literally the only governor in the nation I could see blowing a massive lead out of sheer unlikability and the disaster that is illinois right now.

Dont disagree with your points though

[ProgressiveModerate]

One issue for IL Rs with winning statewide is that when Rauner or Kirk won is that they were able to hold white liberal areas from the loop Northwards down to pretty impressive margins.

At this point, it seems highly unlikely an R would be able to hold a Dem to under 20% in any of these precincts let alone outright win them. A reminder that even in 2016 Kirk was able to come close in magnificent mile precincts but ultimately still lost by a large margin due to Duckworth's dominance downstate.

I really doubt beyond an extreme turnout differentiation benefitting the GOP massively nationally or a god awful Dem canidate the GOP has the votes to win statewide in IL at this point.

Except Pritzker s exactly the kind of person the suburbs wont just vote for because hes a D.

Illinois will most likely reelect Pritzker, but lets not forget the heavy state problems that are affecting Illinois. Deficits, taxes, etc. Hes definitely vulnerable to the right candidate.

Also a reminder in 2018 despite doing simillar to Biden statewide, he massively underperformed in the suburbs and overperformed downstate, as is usually the case downballot.

In order for the GOP to win statewide, they'd likely need a Trump + Rural margin and Kirk suburban numbers which is a harder combo to get. Surely not impossible but the R canidate would need to delicately walk a tightrope which I don't see hapenning given the GOP so far on this race and others.

Its Pritzker, is there an incumbent governor in this nation who you can see blowing a race before him? Cause I cant. He should win on sheer turnout, but hes literally the only governor in the nation I could see blowing a massive lead out of sheer unlikability and the disaster that is illinois right now.

Dont disagree with your points though

I agree, though from what I've heard he doesn't seem particuarly unpopular and was decently well liked not too long ago. Though again I'm not from IL and don't have the best understanding of it's local politics

If he does take his race for granted we could get a NJ-Gov 2021 redux

[wbrocks67]

Pritzker seems generally well liked, so I don't really see how he's that vulnerable? Not really sure you can compare his performance in the suburbs from when he was just a candidate versus now that people know him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pritzker seems generally well liked, so I don't really see how he's that vulnerable? Not really sure you can compare his performance in the suburbs from when he was just a candidate versus now that people know him.

The Rs made a major, Strategic mistake in running Sullivan for Gov instead of against Tammy DUCKWORTH. I am glad, she was vulnerable but now with Sullivan out the way she is gonna get 70% of the vote and Durbin is safe in 2026, Sullivan is well liked like Kirk, but Rs had no chance in the Gov race, I would of voted for Tammy no doubt but suburban voters like Sullivan, for SEN, Pritzker was favorite ANYWAYS

Tim Ryan, Mark Kelly can win because of his looks as well as Sullivan swing female voters not White men whom are Rs anyways

[Mr. Illini]

1. The legislature pushing progressive policies that he went ahead and signed due to Illinois’s economy being so bad that he couldn’t veto it. Weed is the main thing but there are others.

This is an interesting way of saying that JB executed on his campaign promise to pass progressive legislation.

[Minnesota Mike]

Bailey up 25 in early vote from Will county. If he is winning the burbs like this it will be a blowout.

[Oryxslayer]

Update: Those millions spent on trying to get Irvin through a GOP electorate appear to have been thrown on the most raging of bonfires.

[PSOL]

Update: Those millions spent on trying to get Irvin through a GOP electorate appear to have been thrown on the most raging of bonfires.

This was evident a good while ago.

Who in their right mind thought losers like Irvin or Sullivan would go anywhere?

[Illiniwek]

Anyone see the Gary Rabine concession speech? He’s a mad looney if I’ve ever seen one.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1542019417688637441?s=20&t=g6Lzp031...

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1542019417688637441?s=20&t=g6Lzp031...

Democrats will probably take the lead in DuPage once they count all the VBM.