IL-GOV 2022 megathread

[PSOL]

I think the Willie Wilson Party will rocket back and under urban populist Willie Wilson, who campaigns on a religious anti-lockdown platform, the WWP will win.

I don’t see it. The dude did poor on the senate race even with pouring an unbelievable amount of cash into the race.

[JGibson]

IL-GOV race updates:
- State Sens. Paul Schmipf and Darren Bailey are in the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs need to forget about IL, Trump is too polarizing a force in IL to get Rs elected Gov of IL

Rauner and Kirk got elected off of Blagojevich selling the seat to Jesse Jackson, that's the only reason why they won

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

The NYGOP is up sh**t's creak, they democrats gained a super majority in the state senate giving them control of redistricting

[Suburbia]

Safe Pritzker, he is just as safe as Abbott

Lean D, the criminal justice package Pritzker signed could spur backlash in DuPage and other suburban areas.....DuPage is a swing county at the state level now, he is going to have to educate people on this....

Bailey can't win statewide, the only one who can win statewide is Dan Rutherford or Jason Plummer...

Criminal Justice reform is popular. this isn't the 90's.

That is true, but you are forgetting the ability of Republicans to message that violent criminals from Chicago will roam the suburbs due to bail reform, ILGOP will use that message to win back the suburbs in DuPage and the collar counties........

The ILGOP will take a page from the NYGOP's playbook on bail reform in 2020, they picked up seats in the Legislature because of that.....

The NYGOP is up sh**t's creak, they democrats gained a super majority in the state senate giving them control of redistricting

They made inroads on Long Island........

[MarkD]

IL-GOV race updates:
- State Sens. Paul Schmipf and Darren Bailey are in the race.

Interesting.

Bailey is a newbie; he won one term as a state rep in 2018, then moved up to the Senate last year, and he's already going to run statewide in such a short amount of time? Pretty amibitious.

Schimpf ran statewide just over six years ago for AG and got beat pretty badly by Lisa Madigan, losing by over 21 points. Then he got elected to the Senate two years later (in the district that I moved into about two years ago). But he didn't run for another term in the Senate last year. I guess he was planning on running for Governor when he chose to not run for another Senate term.

According to Wikipedia, there are still a lot of other potential candidates. Eleven years ago, a total of seven people ran for the Republican nomination for Governor. Maybe that many will run again this time.

[muon2]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

[muon2]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

Polarization has increased since 2014, The kind of swingy collar counties that allowed Rauner to win just don't swing anymore nearly enough down the ballot.

Furthermore, I don't these party games overly impact how people will vote unless there's an actual bitter primary challenge against Pritzker. Unless some scandal breaks for Pritzker I fail to see how this race is anything other than Safe-D*.

*If people can rate DeSanti's re-election with middling approval, a winning margin of 0.4% in a state that voted from by 3% as Likley R. I fail to see how Illinois can be anything other than Safe D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis has Rubio not Rick Scott on the ballot. In 2018, DeSantis had Rubio and almost lost to Gillam

Crist and Val Deming's will lost by 10 pts and FL isn't AZ or CA, it's a Cuban not Mexican state, which has a Cuban Embargo on it

[lisaexample]

Alexi Giannoulias is back for Secretary of State!

[muon2]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

Polarization has increased since 2014, The kind of swingy collar counties that allowed Rauner to win just don't swing anymore nearly enough down the ballot.

Furthermore, I don't these party games overly impact how people will vote unless there's an actual bitter primary challenge against Pritzker. Unless some scandal breaks for Pritzker I fail to see how this race is anything other than Safe-D*.

*If people can rate DeSanti's re-election with middling approval, a winning margin of 0.4% in a state that voted from by 3% as Likley R. I fail to see how Illinois can be anything other than Safe D.

In IL there was enough swing in some of the down ballot races that allowed Pubs to pick up legislative seats even as Biden won handily. At the congressional level Underwood had a much closer race in 2020 than in 2018, which suggests that there was ballot splitting at that level, too.

The internal party fights affect Pritzker's ability to move an agenda. The danger isn't from a primary, it's from the public feeling that he isn't getting things done.

There are enough examples of solid Dem northern states with solid D legislative control, but the voters are willing to go with a moderate Pub in the Gov's office even with the current polarization.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Pritzker heavily backed Ald. Michelle Harris to be the new head of the state party. Durbin backed Cong. Robin Kelly who came from behind (based on endorsements) and won the vote tonight. Internally this adds to a recent string of political setbacks for the Gov.

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

There's a saying here that losing is like a disease in politics. Politicos don't want to be near other political types who end up often on the losing side of issues and elections. That includes endorsing the losing side of issues and elections.

Polarization has increased since 2014, The kind of swingy collar counties that allowed Rauner to win just don't swing anymore nearly enough down the ballot.

Furthermore, I don't these party games overly impact how people will vote unless there's an actual bitter primary challenge against Pritzker. Unless some scandal breaks for Pritzker I fail to see how this race is anything other than Safe-D*.

*If people can rate DeSanti's re-election with middling approval, a winning margin of 0.4% in a state that voted from by 3% as Likley R. I fail to see how Illinois can be anything other than Safe D.

In IL there was enough swing in some of the down ballot races that allowed Pubs to pick up legislative seats even as Biden won handily. At the congressional level Underwood had a much closer race in 2020 than in 2018, which suggests that there was ballot splitting at that level, too.

The internal party fights affect Pritzker's ability to move an agenda. The danger isn't from a primary, it's from the public feeling that he isn't getting things done.

There are enough examples of solid Dem northern states with solid D legislative control, but the voters are willing to go with a moderate Pub in the Gov's office even with the current polarization.

Republican gained 1 house seat, that's a terrible showing given how many house seats they lost in 2018 and with the democrats explicitly running on a plan to raise taxes on the newly realigned suburban voters with a referendum driving turnout of voter inclined against that.

I just don't see where the voters for making Pritzer vunerable are going to come from especially with the new stimulus plan removing some of the fiscal pressure on the state. The democrating ceiling in the state has fallen but their flow has risen to the point there's no reason to think that Pritzker is vuenrbale.

Pritzker also has some wins in terms of the legalizing marrijuna and the new cash bail reform that should be enough to placate progressive into turning out for him even if he stumbles a bit in terms of legislative agenda.

[muon2]

Republican gained 1 house seat, that's a terrible showing given how many house seats they lost in 2018 and with the democrats explicitly running on a plan to raise taxes on the newly realigned suburban voters with a referendum driving turnout of voter inclined against that.

In the run up to the 2020 election, Pubs were forecast to lose an additional 3 to 5 seats. That's not counting the seat where the incumbent R announced plans to move, didn't resign, and didn't campaign (which unsurprisingly flipped to D). The Pubs way over-performed expectations. No one in this state would call it a terrible showing.

Polling on the graduated tax amendment was quite positive in the early summer of 2020. The governor had invested a tremendous amount of financial and political capital to get it on the ballot. But by Labor Day experienced observers were telling the governor and his team that they were seeing growing weakness in the amendment's support outside of the yes-no polling. But the governor did not listen or react to shore up support. When opponents launched a well-funded fall campaign that capitalized on the emerging weakness in support, the governor's team was caught flat-footed.

The tax amendment didn't just lose, it lost by a much wider margin than expected (45% yes). It definitely went against the notion that it should do about as well as Biden (58%). That's 13% drop-off for an amendment pitched as negatively impacting only 3% of the population. That kind of drop-off from the top of the ticket was another sign that IL voters still maintained voting elasticity in 2020. There is polarization in IL, but we are not as polarized compared to the nation as a whole.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Republican gained 1 house seat, that's a terrible showing given how many house seats they lost in 2018 and with the democrats explicitly running on a plan to raise taxes on the newly realigned suburban voters with a referendum driving turnout of voter inclined against that.

In the run up to the 2020 election, Pubs were forecast to lose an additional 3 to 5 seats. That's not counting the seat where the incumbent R announced plans to move, didn't resign, and didn't campaign (which unsurprisingly flipped to D). The Pubs way over-performed expectations. No one in this state would call it a terrible showing.

Polling on the graduated tax amendment was quite positive in the early summer of 2020. The governor had invested a tremendous amount of financial and political capital to get it on the ballot. But by Labor Day experienced observers were telling the governor and his team that they were seeing growing weakness in the amendment's support outside of the yes-no polling. But the governor did not listen or react to shore up support. When opponents launched a well-funded fall campaign that capitalized on the emerging weakness in support, the governor's team was caught flat-footed.

The tax amendment didn't just lose, it lost by a much wider margin than expected (45% yes). It definitely went against the notion that it should do about as well as Biden (58%). That's 13% drop-off for an amendment pitched as negatively impacting only 3% of the population. That kind of drop-off from the top of the ticket was another sign that IL voters still maintained voting elasticity in 2020. There is polarization in IL, but we are not as polarized compared to the nation as a whole.

Democrats as a whole vastly underperformed expectations down-ballot in 2020, Democrats still kept the vast majority of their 2018 gains. It's a bad figure to use because of uncontested seats but the republican margin in the statehouse popular vote only improved by 0.05% compared to an absolutely dismal showing in 2018. The republican overperformed expectations but the expectations themselves were incredibly low, they failed to gain back a single congressional seat. Sean Casten representing a district originally drawn to be a republican pack in west chicago was one of the few houses freshmen to improve their performance from 2018. Compared to the National GOP, the Illinois GOP performed poorly.


Voters might be ideologically split but that doesn't translate to the flexibility when it comes to partishanship. Medicare expansion ballots passed in Idaho, Missouri and Oklahoma. California rejected a whole swath of progressive ballots in 2020. That doesn't change the fact that those states are very much safe territory for one party. Where exactly are the voters for a successful republican gubernation bid going to come from ?

Pritzker ran a poor campagin for the fair tax amendment and it's clear that the unpopular of Madigan also hurt that campagin but you can't rate him vulnerable based on a failed campagin for a ballot measure raising taxes. Given his approvals have held-up and the state is safe for his party.

[muon2]

Pritzker ran a poor campagin for the fair tax amendment and it's clear that the unpopular of Madigan also hurt that campagin but you can't rate him vulnerable based on a failed campagin for a ballot measure raising taxes.

I didn't say he was vulnerable. I disagreed that it was hard to see how he could lose. Here's the relevant exchange:

However, I do have a gard time seeing Pritzker's reelection in danger. Likely D.

Quinn lost in 2014 in part due to his inability to get things done and that was due to his inability to work well with the legislature. It was also due to the strength of R voting in 2014. I'm not saying the result will be the same, but I can see easily both those factors at play in 2022.

These are factors that any good campaign operative would be monitoring. If they go unaddressed the result could be like the tax amendment where opponents take advantage of weak support to flip the result. If they are addressed over the next year and a half they shouldn't hurt his chances.

[muon2]

IL-GOV race updates:
- State Sens. Paul Schmipf and Darren Bailey are in the race.

Interesting.

Bailey is a newbie; he won one term as a state rep in 2018, then moved up to the Senate last year, and he's already going to run statewide in such a short amount of time? Pretty amibitious.

Schimpf ran statewide just over six years ago for AG and got beat pretty badly by Lisa Madigan, losing by over 21 points. Then he got elected to the Senate two years later (in the district that I moved into about two years ago). But he didn't run for another term in the Senate last year. I guess he was planning on running for Governor when he chose to not run for another Senate term.

According to Wikipedia, there are still a lot of other potential candidates. Eleven years ago, a total of seven people ran for the Republican nomination for Governor. Maybe that many will run again this time.

Schimpf was in line for a federal judgeship. He thought it best not to run for reelection to the Senate when it was clear that he was being considered for judge. For whatever reason, the administration failed to move his nomination.

[jamestroll]

I basically rate IL Gov the same as VA Gov. Both probable Democratic holds but circumstances could cause a GOP upset.

[Not Me, Us]

I basically rate IL Gov the same as VA Gov. Both probable Democratic holds but circumstances could cause a GOP upset.

VA is exponentially more likely to flip than IL.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Safe D, but someone from downstate could really run up the numbers there by painting JB as a Chicago Democrat who was elected by Chicago to serve Chicago and governs from Chicago, not Springfield, and has almost gone out of his way to alienate voters from outside Chicagoland. He’s easy to paint as out of touch with everyday life in Illinois outside of Chicago as a billionaire but also being from Chicago.

“JB Pritzker. Elected by Chicago, for Chicago.”

It wouldn’t be enough to win the race but would be enough to roll up record margins outside Chicagoland. They would do well not to mention his COVID-19 response which has been good.

To win, though, they’d need a different message for the suburbs since the anti-Chicago message wouldn’t cut it there. I have a hard time seeing an opening for Republicans to win in DuPage/Lake/Will/McHenry/Kane and the Cook suburbs by enough to win. Remember in 2014 Quinn came within a few percentage points of winning by carrying only Chicago, a few liberal suburbs, and East St. Louis. Their message in the suburbs should include Pritzker’s attempt to ram through an unpopular progressive tax amendment which failed badly in the suburbs and pretty much everywhere else. It should also rehash Pritzker’s toilet fiasco in light of that.

But like I originally said, it’s not happening. He’s safe as long as he wants to be governor.