I did an early primary prediction game in these threads:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=41890.0https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=41976.0but it seems to have died. I think the problem being that it was a bit too restrictive in the sorts of predictions I was looking for. So I thought I'd start a new thread in which the discussion is a lot more open ended. I'm interested in reading people's thoughts on the primary calendar, and how it's going to affect the nomination races for both parties. Since the Democrats eliminated their 1 month post-NH window, the calendar has gotten even more frontloaded. And I'm expecting what will happen in 2008 is that you'll have the IA caucuses one week, and then the NH primary the next week, and then a week later (on the first Tuesday of February) there'll be at least 10 states holding primaries for both parties.
A good first guess as to which states might be voting in that week after NH is the seven states that did so in 2004 (AZ, NM, DE, MO, ND, OK, SC). But according to this:
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/chrnothp08.htmlit looks like at least AL, AR, and UT will be joining them, and other states are considering the same move, including FL and MI!
So we'll likely have IA, then NH, then at least 10 states a week later, the bulk of which apparently will be southern and western states. I'm guessing there's a good chance that someone will build enough momentum from wins in those early states that they'll become unstoppable at that point, a la John Kerry in 2004.
I'm thinking that McCain and Romney would be the favorites in NH, while IA would more likely go for someone who's more socially conservative, like Allen. McCain's toughest region in the primaries will probably be the south, so it's probably bad news for him that AL, AR, OK, and SC are all likely to vote early. That might stop him from running away with the nomination right away even if he won both IA and NH.
On the Dem side, I'm not really sure if HRC would have a better chance in IA or NH. She might have a regional advantage in NH, but NH is also known to go for maveriks. Also, those early southern and western primaries might give Warner an advantage.
Thoughts?
