2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.
How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.
It's not just that Biden won Georgia (many people, including myself, considered that a possibility), but it's the fact that he won it despite the results in the two neighboring swing states. 2020 was a very disappointing map for the Democrats who thought Texas could conceivably flip. The fact that Biden was able to flip Georgia despite Trump once again massively outperforming his polling is what's really surprising in the context of the rest of the election.
Exactly. Georgia flipping wasn’t the surprising part, it was Georgia flipping despite the race being much narrower than polling suggested. If Biden won by an Obama 2008 margin then no one would be surprised at GA flipping, but he didn’t win by nearly as much.
