Most shocking state by election
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John Dule
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« on: December 26, 2020, 05:56:13 PM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.
2016: Three-way tie between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
2012: No really big surprises, but perhaps the biggest shock in hindsight was that Ohio stayed blue.
2008: Indiana
2004: Practically nothing was surprising here.
2000: Florida for closeness, either New Hampshire or Tennessee for states that Gore could've also easily won.

What would you guys say for prior elections? Are these right?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2020, 06:08:54 PM »

For 2004, I think it's surprising that Bush wasn't able to flip Wisconsin, a state which he heavily targeted that year and in 2000. Both Kerry and Gore won the state by less than 1%-similar to the margin Biden garnered this year. As for prior elections, I would say Colorado for 1996. In a year in which Bill Clinton became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948, it's surprising that he couldn't hold Colorado. Bob Dole apparently did well enough in Eastern Colorado (bordering his home state of Kansas) and in El Paso County to narrowly flip the state back.

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Alcibiades
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2020, 06:55:17 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2020, 06:59:57 PM by Alcibiades »

1976: Wisconsin - Traditionally Republican state where polling indicated a Ford lead.
1980: Arkansas - One of the most Democratic states in the South which polling showed Carter to be easily carrying.
1992: New Hampshire - Had been Bush’s 2nd best state in 1988.
1996: Arizona - Sun Belt GOP stronghold, the type of place where Clinton did not otherwise do very well.
2000: West Virginia - Die-hard Democratic state where the only previous Republican victories since 1932 (3 in total) had been in landslides, and which had stuck with the Dems in the slightly smaller landslides of 1980 and 1988.
2008: Indiana or Missouri breaking its bellwether streak (and in a semi-landslide as well).
2016: Michigan
2020: Georgia or Minnesota, considering how much to the left they voted to other states which polling had shown to be in the same ballpark.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2020, 07:28:07 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2020, 07:31:17 PM by mathstatman »

I agree with the above.

1976: Massachusetts, how Carter seriously underperformed in the Boston area, for a variety of reasons.
1972: None.
1968: Texas and Maryland (Spiro Agnew's home state), both Southern or border states, especially after one poll in early Sept. showed Humphrey up on Wallace just 28-21 nationally (Nixon was far ahead at 43%).
1964: Mississippi, not that it went for Goldwater, but the sheer margin by which it did, and the fact that Blacks there were essentially totally disenfranchised; even in Alabama a few counties (Macon, for instance) had a lot of Black voters.
1960: Oregon, how JFK wasn't even particularly close. Alternatively, Hawaii, for its fantastic closeness.
1956: Missouri, the only time from 1900 or so until 2008 that it voted with the loser, and in a landslide no less.
1952: Kentucky (how close it was)
1948: Ohio
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John Dule
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« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2020, 07:45:50 PM »

WV for 2000 is a good one. It didn't even occur to me to think of it as a "surprise."
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2020, 08:20:28 PM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.
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John Dule
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« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2020, 08:45:10 PM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.

It's not just that Biden won Georgia (many people, including myself, considered that a possibility), but it's the fact that he won it despite the results in the two neighboring swing states. 2020 was a very disappointing map for the Democrats who thought Texas could conceivably flip. The fact that Biden was able to flip Georgia despite Trump once again massively outperforming his polling is what's really surprising in the context of the rest of the election.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2020, 12:14:40 PM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.

It's not just that Biden won Georgia (many people, including myself, considered that a possibility), but it's the fact that he won it despite the results in the two neighboring swing states. 2020 was a very disappointing map for the Democrats who thought Texas could conceivably flip. The fact that Biden was able to flip Georgia despite Trump once again massively outperforming his polling is what's really surprising in the context of the rest of the election.

Exactly. Georgia flipping wasn’t the surprising part, it was Georgia flipping despite the race being much narrower than polling suggested. If Biden won by an Obama 2008 margin then no one would be surprised at GA flipping, but he didn’t win by nearly as much.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2020, 12:09:09 AM »

1960: Hawaii [was expected to be a GOP state, ended up being insanely close the other way]
1964: Arkansas [held through for LBJ even with the CRA backlash]
1968: North Carolina [Wallace seriously underperformed here]
1972: Massachusetts [should've easily joined the other 49.]
1976: Oklahoma [insanely close Carter margin]
1980: Oregon [Carter got shredded in The West...except here]
1984: Minnesota [see 1972, even with the caveat of "home state"]
1988: Maryland [trad D state, but Bush Sr actually flipped it]
1992: New Jersey [heavy R state, and it flipped]
1996: Arizona [not just that Clinton flipped it, but did so without Maricopa and did better there than NV]
2000: West Virginia
2004: Nevada [I really expected Vegas to get Kerry over]
2008: Missouri [bellwether breaks on a semi-landslide..]
2012: North Carolina or Florida
2016: Ohio or New Hampshire
2020: Nevada or Florida
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2021, 02:56:05 PM »

1948: The whole Truman victory was a shock, but maybe the closeness of New York? Dewey did end up winning it, but by less than 1% margin in a state where he was the popular second-term governor.

1952: None, really

1956: Louisiana. It went from a D+6 state to R+14 in an election that didn't really have significant swings, and the rest of the deep south held pretty firm for Stevenson.

1960: Hawaii being decided by 115 votes.

1964: Mississippi. Not that Goldwater won it, but that he got a 74 point margin. The GOP went from winning around 75,000 votes (25%) to around 360,000 (87%). You'd think there would be a little more residual Democratic vote, right?

1968: Texas.

1972: Massachusetts going for McGovern, and not by a particularly close margin.

1976: I'll break the rules here: the demographic breakdowns. Young people were split even between Carter and Ford, and women voted the same way as men. This is a very rare situation, at least in a non-landslide election. Young people and women have always leaned left in modern American politics, and while Carter was seen as a religious southern democrat, he definitely campaigned to the left of Ford. So this surprises me.

1980: Arkansas.

1984: Minnesota. I know this is a home-state advantage thing, but still. This was an election where Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland voted for the GOP.

1988: Pennsylvania. Considering how the nation as a whole trended heavily D from 1984 (not enough for a Dukakis win, but still), you'd think he would have won Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania used to be to the left of the nation back then, and Bush doesn't seem like a particularly good fit.

1992: New Hampshire. It was Bush's second-strongest state in 1988. Even with Clinton's move to the centre and the northeast becoming a D region, it's still impressive.

1996: Arizona. Need I say more?

2000: West Virginia. Not too surprising in hindsight, but at the time, West Virginia was one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation.

2004: Wisconsin. Kerry got a narrowly better margin there than Gore, despite the nation as a whole swinging to the right. Considering Bush made a real play for Wisconsin, it's surprising he was unable to pull it off.

2008: Indiana, obviously. Virginia voting D+6.3 was a surprise at the time, although in hindsight it shouldn't be. But Indiana voting for a liberal Democrat was a complete shock.

2012: Florida, although there were no real big shocks in this one.

2016: PA, MI, and WI are the obvious ones, but I'll actually go for Iowa and Ohio. Not that Trump won them, but the sheer margins. Ohio had long been a bellwether, usually only 2-3 points to the right of the nation, and suddenly it had a 10pt GOP lean. Iowa was, if anything, a lean D state since the 1980s, and suddenly it was voting to the right of Texas. Pretty crazy shifts.

2020: The consensus here seems to be GA, which I agree with. But just to switch it up, I'll actually go with Florida. It went from voting 3pts to the right of the nation, to 8pts. Trump had a net gain in Miami-Dade of around 200,000 votes. I certainly didn't expect Florida to vote to the right of Georgia.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2021, 03:46:30 PM »

1948: The whole Truman victory was a shock, but maybe the closeness of New York? Dewey did end up winning it, but by less than 1% margin in a state where he was the popular second-term governor.

1952: None, really

1956: Louisiana. It went from a D+6 state to R+14 in an election that didn't really have significant swings, and the rest of the deep south held pretty firm for Stevenson.

1960: Hawaii being decided by 115 votes.

1964: Mississippi. Not that Goldwater won it, but that he got a 74 point margin. The GOP went from winning around 75,000 votes (25%) to around 360,000 (87%). You'd think there would be a little more residual Democratic vote, right?

1968: Texas.

1972: Massachusetts going for McGovern, and not by a particularly close margin.

1976: I'll break the rules here: the demographic breakdowns. Young people were split even between Carter and Ford, and women voted the same way as men. This is a very rare situation, at least in a non-landslide election. Young people and women have always leaned left in modern American politics, and while Carter was seen as a religious southern democrat, he definitely campaigned to the left of Ford. So this surprises me.

1980: Arkansas.

1984: Minnesota. I know this is a home-state advantage thing, but still. This was an election where Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland voted for the GOP.

1988: Pennsylvania. Considering how the nation as a whole trended heavily D from 1984 (not enough for a Dukakis win, but still), you'd think he would have won Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania used to be to the left of the nation back then, and Bush doesn't seem like a particularly good fit.

1992: New Hampshire. It was Bush's second-strongest state in 1988. Even with Clinton's move to the centre and the northeast becoming a D region, it's still impressive.

1996: Arizona. Need I say more?

2000: West Virginia. Not too surprising in hindsight, but at the time, West Virginia was one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation.

2004: Wisconsin. Kerry got a narrowly better margin there than Gore, despite the nation as a whole swinging to the right. Considering Bush made a real play for Wisconsin, it's surprising he was unable to pull it off.

2008: Indiana, obviously. Virginia voting D+6.3 was a surprise at the time, although in hindsight it shouldn't be. But Indiana voting for a liberal Democrat was a complete shock.

2012: Florida, although there were no real big shocks in this one.

2016: PA, MI, and WI are the obvious ones, but I'll actually go for Iowa and Ohio. Not that Trump won them, but the sheer margins. Ohio had long been a bellwether, usually only 2-3 points to the right of the nation, and suddenly it had a 10pt GOP lean. Iowa was, if anything, a lean D state since the 1980s, and suddenly it was voting to the right of Texas. Pretty crazy shifts.

2020: The consensus here seems to be GA, which I agree with. But just to switch it up, I'll actually go with Florida. It went from voting 3pts to the right of the nation, to 8pts. Trump had a net gain in Miami-Dade of around 200,000 votes. I certainly didn't expect Florida to vote to the right of Georgia.

Elections in Mississippi in that era were explicitly and openly rigged.  I don't know that anyone was surprised when the county machines threw it to the anti-civil rights candidate in a landslide?  They just happened to have a different letter after their name that time.   
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cafaulait37
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2021, 03:51:50 PM »

1948: The whole Truman victory was a shock, but maybe the closeness of New York? Dewey did end up winning it, but by less than 1% margin in a state where he was the popular second-term governor.

1952: None, really

1956: Louisiana. It went from a D+6 state to R+14 in an election that didn't really have significant swings, and the rest of the deep south held pretty firm for Stevenson.

1960: Hawaii being decided by 115 votes.

1964: Mississippi. Not that Goldwater won it, but that he got a 74 point margin. The GOP went from winning around 75,000 votes (25%) to around 360,000 (87%). You'd think there would be a little more residual Democratic vote, right?

1968: Texas.

1972: Massachusetts going for McGovern, and not by a particularly close margin.

1976: I'll break the rules here: the demographic breakdowns. Young people were split even between Carter and Ford, and women voted the same way as men. This is a very rare situation, at least in a non-landslide election. Young people and women have always leaned left in modern American politics, and while Carter was seen as a religious southern democrat, he definitely campaigned to the left of Ford. So this surprises me.

1980: Arkansas.

1984: Minnesota. I know this is a home-state advantage thing, but still. This was an election where Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland voted for the GOP.

1988: Pennsylvania. Considering how the nation as a whole trended heavily D from 1984 (not enough for a Dukakis win, but still), you'd think he would have won Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania used to be to the left of the nation back then, and Bush doesn't seem like a particularly good fit.

1992: New Hampshire. It was Bush's second-strongest state in 1988. Even with Clinton's move to the centre and the northeast becoming a D region, it's still impressive.

1996: Arizona. Need I say more?

2000: West Virginia. Not too surprising in hindsight, but at the time, West Virginia was one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation.

2004: Wisconsin. Kerry got a narrowly better margin there than Gore, despite the nation as a whole swinging to the right. Considering Bush made a real play for Wisconsin, it's surprising he was unable to pull it off.

2008: Indiana, obviously. Virginia voting D+6.3 was a surprise at the time, although in hindsight it shouldn't be. But Indiana voting for a liberal Democrat was a complete shock.

2012: Florida, although there were no real big shocks in this one.

2016: PA, MI, and WI are the obvious ones, but I'll actually go for Iowa and Ohio. Not that Trump won them, but the sheer margins. Ohio had long been a bellwether, usually only 2-3 points to the right of the nation, and suddenly it had a 10pt GOP lean. Iowa was, if anything, a lean D state since the 1980s, and suddenly it was voting to the right of Texas. Pretty crazy shifts.

2020: The consensus here seems to be GA, which I agree with. But just to switch it up, I'll actually go with Florida. It went from voting 3pts to the right of the nation, to 8pts. Trump had a net gain in Miami-Dade of around 200,000 votes. I certainly didn't expect Florida to vote to the right of Georgia.

Elections in Mississippi in that era were explicitly and openly rigged.  I don't know that anyone was surprised when the county machines threw it to the anti-civil rights candidate in a landslide?  They just happened to have a different letter after their name that time.   

It was estimated that only 6% of the black population was registered to vote.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2021, 07:05:45 PM »

1948: The whole Truman victory was a shock, but maybe the closeness of New York? Dewey did end up winning it, but by less than 1% margin in a state where he was the popular second-term governor.

1952: None, really

1956: Louisiana. It went from a D+6 state to R+14 in an election that didn't really have significant swings, and the rest of the deep south held pretty firm for Stevenson.

1960: Hawaii being decided by 115 votes.

1964: Mississippi. Not that Goldwater won it, but that he got a 74 point margin. The GOP went from winning around 75,000 votes (25%) to around 360,000 (87%). You'd think there would be a little more residual Democratic vote, right?

1968: Texas.

1972: Massachusetts going for McGovern, and not by a particularly close margin.

1976: I'll break the rules here: the demographic breakdowns. Young people were split even between Carter and Ford, and women voted the same way as men. This is a very rare situation, at least in a non-landslide election. Young people and women have always leaned left in modern American politics, and while Carter was seen as a religious southern democrat, he definitely campaigned to the left of Ford. So this surprises me.

1980: Arkansas.

1984: Minnesota. I know this is a home-state advantage thing, but still. This was an election where Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maryland voted for the GOP.

1988: Pennsylvania. Considering how the nation as a whole trended heavily D from 1984 (not enough for a Dukakis win, but still), you'd think he would have won Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania used to be to the left of the nation back then, and Bush doesn't seem like a particularly good fit.

1992: New Hampshire. It was Bush's second-strongest state in 1988. Even with Clinton's move to the centre and the northeast becoming a D region, it's still impressive.

1996: Arizona. Need I say more?

2000: West Virginia. Not too surprising in hindsight, but at the time, West Virginia was one of the strongest Democratic states in the nation.

2004: Wisconsin. Kerry got a narrowly better margin there than Gore, despite the nation as a whole swinging to the right. Considering Bush made a real play for Wisconsin, it's surprising he was unable to pull it off.

2008: Indiana, obviously. Virginia voting D+6.3 was a surprise at the time, although in hindsight it shouldn't be. But Indiana voting for a liberal Democrat was a complete shock.

2012: Florida, although there were no real big shocks in this one.

2016: PA, MI, and WI are the obvious ones, but I'll actually go for Iowa and Ohio. Not that Trump won them, but the sheer margins. Ohio had long been a bellwether, usually only 2-3 points to the right of the nation, and suddenly it had a 10pt GOP lean. Iowa was, if anything, a lean D state since the 1980s, and suddenly it was voting to the right of Texas. Pretty crazy shifts.

2020: The consensus here seems to be GA, which I agree with. But just to switch it up, I'll actually go with Florida. It went from voting 3pts to the right of the nation, to 8pts. Trump had a net gain in Miami-Dade of around 200,000 votes. I certainly didn't expect Florida to vote to the right of Georgia.

Elections in Mississippi in that era were explicitly and openly rigged.  I don't know that anyone was surprised when the county machines threw it to the anti-civil rights candidate in a landslide?  They just happened to have a different letter after their name that time.   

Well yeah I figured the electorate was greatly...whitewashed, but I figured there might have been at least a little more residual democratic support.
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vileplume
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2021, 06:34:00 AM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.

Yes, Biden winning Georgia was not overly surprising, he was leading in the aggregate polling there and the likes of Sabato predicted that he'd win it. Losing North Carolina was much more surprising IMO as well as the margin he lost Florida by.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2021, 11:32:10 AM »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.

Yes, Biden winning Georgia was not overly surprising, he was leading in the aggregate polling there and the likes of Sabato predicted that he'd win it. Losing North Carolina was much more surprising IMO as well as the margin he lost Florida by.

Given how far off the national polls were, it was surprising that Biden still won Georgia with a 4.5% national margin. 
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2021, 05:31:48 PM »

1992: New Hampshire (HW Bush won it by 26 points in 1988; Clinton won it by 1).
1996: Arizona (first Dem to win it since Truman 1948)
2000: West Virginia (traditional Dem state; even Carter won it in 1980 and Dukakis 1988)
2004: Florida (Bush's 5% win margin was surprising, given how close it was in 2000)
2008: Indiana
2012: nothing
2016: Wisconsin and Michigan
2020: Georgia
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cafaulait37
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2021, 08:02:07 PM »

2020: North Carolina. I really thought Biden would win it.

2016: Wisconsin. I thought Trump could realistically win Pennsylvania and Michigan at the time.

2012: Florida. Kind of surprised it stuck with Obama, given that Romney absolutely needed it to win.

2008: Indiana.

Don't remember much before that.
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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2021, 11:07:52 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2021, 11:12:07 PM by gracile »

2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.

How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.

It's not just that Biden won Georgia (many people, including myself, considered that a possibility), but it's the fact that he won it despite the results in the two neighboring swing states. 2020 was a very disappointing map for the Democrats who thought Texas could conceivably flip. The fact that Biden was able to flip Georgia despite Trump once again massively outperforming his polling is what's really surprising in the context of the rest of the election.

That's not at all surprising to many people here who observed the trends of those three states from 2016 (Georgia trending modestly left, North Carolina remaining stagnant, and Florida trending modestly right were patterns that many of us thought would continue in 2020). And not really sure how Texas is all that relevant to this conversation as that state is markedly to the right of Georgia anyway, so it's not like Georgia flipping and Texas staying Republican were inconceivable.
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« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2021, 09:17:01 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2021, 04:35:08 PM by Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) »

2008: Indiana. Just...what?
-- Personally, I'd also list Virginia. That's solely because I was a very casual political observer at the time and didn't know much about "trends" or "priors". I thought it was incredible that Obama won a southern state that Clinton & Carter couldn't win.

2012: I don't know, Florida?

2016: Michigan. Lots of talks with my Michigan transplant friends over that one.

2020: I guess Florida, in that I didn't expect the rightward-swing. Wasn't expecting Trump to do better in Florida than Biden did in Nevada/Michigan. North Carolina was also a bit surprising.
-- I don't mean to toot my own horn, but Georgia wasn't that shocking to me. Very excited to see it flip, but it wasn't shocking to me.
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« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2021, 09:35:58 PM »

1960: Nevada (Nixon probably should've won that given the results of the surrounding states)

1964: Florida (I'm surprised Florida held for Johnson given the results of it's neighbors)

1968: Pennsylvania (I recently saw a 1968 election coverage, and it was thought Nixon needed PA to have a serious chance of winning, of course that was wrong)

1972: Massachusetts

1976: Virginia (I definitely think Carter should've won that)

1980: Hawaii (Not flipping after also being very close in 1976)

1984: Minnesota

1988: Maryland (Really feels like Dukakis should've won it)

1992: New Hampshire (That shift is wild)

1996: Arizona (Voted left of both Nevada and Colorado)

2000: Tennessee (Gore really had no excuse of losing the state)

2004: New Mexico (Given the results of the next several elections afterwards, kinda surprising it didn't vote for Kerry in hindsight)

2008: Indiana (Probably the biggest upset this century so far)

2012: Florida (Going Obama after Romney was widely expected to win there)

2016: Wisconsin (The state that surprised me the most)

2020: Ohio (Lost it's bellwether streak and wasn't even close)
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SAAuthCapitalist
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2021, 12:11:32 AM »
« Edited: March 21, 2021, 10:19:30 AM by SAAuthCapitalist »

I agree with most of this, but I'd add Florida for 2012. In hindsight it is a shock Obama wins it that year, just like with Ohio.

However, I think that Florida was a surprising as Georgia in 2020, and essentially confirmed that Florida is not a swing state no more.

2020: Georgia/Florida

2016: Michigan

2012: Florida and Ohio

2008: Indiana

2004: California being only D+9 is insane in hindsight

2000: WV, Tennessee, NH

1996: Arizona
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