2020: Obviously Georgia, though I suppose the insane Miami-Dade result could make Florida a contender.
How is GA "obvious"? People keep saying this but anyone who had been paying attention to the state's trends over the last few years as well as pre-election polling wouldn’t have been surprised by it at all.
It's not just that Biden won Georgia (many people, including myself, considered that a possibility), but it's the fact that he won it despite the results in the two neighboring swing states. 2020 was a very disappointing map for the Democrats who thought Texas could conceivably flip. The fact that Biden was able to flip Georgia despite Trump once again massively outperforming his polling is what's really surprising in the context of the rest of the election.
That's not at all surprising to many people here who observed the trends of those three states from 2016 (Georgia trending modestly left, North Carolina remaining stagnant, and Florida trending modestly right were patterns that many of us thought would continue in 2020). And not really sure how Texas is all that relevant to this conversation as that state is markedly to the right of Georgia anyway, so it's not like Georgia flipping and Texas staying Republican were inconceivable.
