Most shocking state by election

[Mr. Smith]

1960: Hawaii [was expected to be a GOP state, ended up being insanely close the other way]
1964: Arkansas [held through for LBJ even with the CRA backlash]
1968: North Carolina [Wallace seriously underperformed here]
1972: Massachusetts [should've easily joined the other 49.]
1976: Oklahoma [insanely close Carter margin]
1980: Oregon [Carter got shredded in The West...except here]
1984: Minnesota [see 1972, even with the caveat of "home state"]
1988: Maryland [trad D state, but Bush Sr actually flipped it]
1992: New Jersey [heavy R state, and it flipped]
1996: Arizona [not just that Clinton flipped it, but did so without Maricopa and did better there than NV]
2000: West Virginia
2004: Nevada [I really expected Vegas to get Kerry over]
2008: Missouri [bellwether breaks on a semi-landslide..]
2012: North Carolina or Florida
2016: Ohio or New Hampshire
2020: Nevada or Florida