Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Kingpoleon]

Shelah is leaving YA and starting a new party with the independents (i.e., the self employed). Not sure what his end game here is honestly. Bargaining power with Huldai?

Shelah is very intelligent, but sometimes over intelligent and over does it in politics.

Why is he splitting? I thought YA was more content with Lapid than the average party is. Is he going to try to win over Ashkenazi maybe?

[Kingpoleon]

Who is the most likely non-Netanyahu PM? Lapid?

[Kingpoleon]

Pretty big story out today: Likud (the party, not the government) had secret talks with the Palestinian Authority to get Fatah to support them in the election through activism with Israeli Arabs or at least cease support for the Joint List. Likud denied this with one of their usual spins (LAPID LAPID LAPID), but it rings hollow because Deputy Minister Patin Mula, the Likud's representative in these talks, basically confirmed this by saying "there are all kinds of talks" and adding that the "JL doesn't represent the Palestinians, understand from it what you will". This is what happens when your entire backbench is built of idiots.

I thought this was an indicator that we already knew Netanyahu and Abbas were talking about the election.

[Kingpoleon]

Bennet said that he won't join a government led by Lapid. This seems to put a lid on Lapid's ability to form a government, and is a big boost to Netanyahu (joining a Netanyahu government is an easier spin for Bennet with Sa'ar ending up at 13 seats).

However, imagine this situation: Likud + Haredim + Kahanists + Yamina can't reach 61, only Yesh Atid + New Hope + Yamina + YB + Labour + KL + outside support from Meretz can. What'll happen first- Bennet breaks his promise and sits in a Lapid government with Labour, Sa'ar breaks his promise and joins Netanyahu, or a new election? Hard to say, but I wouldn't completely discount the first.

Can you imagine if Lapid is forced to give up the Prime Ministership then? He’s been the leader of the second or third largest party for eight years now, and he still might not be able to succeed Netanyahu.

[Kingpoleon]

It appears Netanyahu’s reign may be over. We ought not celebrate too early.

[Kingpoleon]

Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?