Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the results page up yet?

23.03...

Ohh f**k me lmao

[I’m not Stu]

What would a Kach (which is banned) majority in the Knesset be like?

What would a capital-L Libertarian majority in the US Congress be like?

Things would have to change so much for that to be on the table that it's a difficult question to answer. Maybe they've moderated in some way, but maybe the world has gone insane in ways that we can't fathom right now.

The Libertarian Party has radical anti-regulatory types and non-interventionist country club Republican types. The party even has a few libertarian leaning socialists.

[Hnv1]

I’m going to chair a precinct this year for the first time since 2009. From what I saw at the election committee it’s going to be chaos on the ground

[CumbrianLefty]

Is the results page up yet?

23.03...

Ohh f**k me lmao

Most of us have been there

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bennet said that he won't join a government led by Lapid. This seems to put a lid on Lapid's ability to form a government, and is a big boost to Netanyahu (joining a Netanyahu government is an easier spin for Bennet with Sa'ar ending up at 13 seats).

However, imagine this situation: Likud + Haredim + Kahanists + Yamina can't reach 61, only Yesh Atid + New Hope + Yamina + YB + Labour + KL + outside support from Meretz can. What'll happen first- Bennet breaks his promise and sits in a Lapid government with Labour, Sa'ar breaks his promise and joins Netanyahu, or a new election? Hard to say, but I wouldn't completely discount the first.

[Oryxslayer]

However, imagine this situation: Likud + Haredim + Kahanists + Yamina can't reach 61, only Yesh Atid + New Hope + Yamina + YB + Labour + KL + outside support from Meretz can. What'll happen first- Bennet breaks his promise and sits in a Lapid government with Labour, Sa'ar breaks his promise and joins Netanyahu, or a new election? Hard to say, but I wouldn't completely discount the first.

I'd like to think that deadlock would be broken by the Likud MKs who would jump to New Hope once it appears the opposition actually has the votes to build a govt, they just need to decide who gets what.

[Kingpoleon]

Bennet said that he won't join a government led by Lapid. This seems to put a lid on Lapid's ability to form a government, and is a big boost to Netanyahu (joining a Netanyahu government is an easier spin for Bennet with Sa'ar ending up at 13 seats).

However, imagine this situation: Likud + Haredim + Kahanists + Yamina can't reach 61, only Yesh Atid + New Hope + Yamina + YB + Labour + KL + outside support from Meretz can. What'll happen first- Bennet breaks his promise and sits in a Lapid government with Labour, Sa'ar breaks his promise and joins Netanyahu, or a new election? Hard to say, but I wouldn't completely discount the first.

Can you imagine if Lapid is forced to give up the Prime Ministership then? He’s been the leader of the second or third largest party for eight years now, and he still might not be able to succeed Netanyahu.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Why is Israeli politics such a disaster? Has it always been this much of a trainwreck or has it only been like this since the collapse of the left and Bibi cultivating a sycophantic personality cult to dominate over a multifractured sociopolitical ecosystem?

[Hnv1]

Why is Israeli politics such a disaster? Has it always been this much of a trainwreck or has it only been like this since the collapse of the left and Bibi cultivating a sycophantic personality cult to dominate over a multifractured sociopolitical ecosystem?

It was always opportunistic and petty. There was more constitutional stability and the median ML was less ignorant though. And more substance.

The causes are hotly debated. That is one strand of explanation, I think it’s missing the key point of demographic changes

[Hnv1]

Two polls today had Meretz quite far from the threshold...it’s happening!

[jaymichaud]

Yesh Atid beginning to poll in the 20s now 🟠🦍

[Hnv1]

Interesting change this time, the Haredi parties are de facto a part of the right for over 15 years, and more comfortable with it since 77. But this is the first time both Shas and UTJ identify as right wing by themselves. UTJ even have a poster talking about Territorial Integrity. It was long in the making as the Haredi electorate is right wing for three decades now, and now we can forget about them being potential partners in any centrist moderate coalition.
**it seems UTJ was pushed into this move as it seems Smotric is biting into their electorate. Interesting process in the fringes of the Haredi and Orthodox worlds. Yachad was the first tryout in the political field.

Anyway Yamina are saying there won’t be a fifth round, so of its 61 for Bibi bloc and Yamina they’re in, otherwise they’re with the rest.
YB and labour set to recommend Lapid as PM. B&W to recommend Saar, and I think Saar and Bennett will recommend the one of them who has more seats.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz's #4 candidate just said in an Arab language interview that she'll abstain from voting on a law banning conversion "therapy". She quickly retracted it but... It could be the death blow to their campaign. The LGBT topic was one of their remaining columns. I'm not sure the occupation column will be enough to pass.

[Babeuf]

Meretz's #4 candidate just said in an Arab language interview that she'll abstain from voting on a law banning conversion "therapy". She quickly retracted it but... It could be the death blow to their campaign. The LGBT topic was one of their remaining columns. I'm not sure the occupation column will be enough to pass.

Horowitz being leader should hopefully mitigate any exodus of support over this? Hard to paint Meretz as anti-LGBT rights with him in charge.

[Hnv1]

Meretz's #4 candidate just said in an Arab language interview that she'll abstain from voting on a law banning conversion "therapy". She quickly retracted it but... It could be the death blow to their campaign. The LGBT topic was one of their remaining columns. I'm not sure the occupation column will be enough to pass.

Horowitz being leader should hopefully mitigate any exodus of support over this? Hard to paint Meretz as anti-LGBT rights with him in charge.

They issued an apology. I think that in nominal figures Meretz doesn't get that much of the LGBT vote like they used to, certainly not with centrist parties having gay MKs and the gay-right wing being a thing. It's now basically the support from the older ones and the community leaders in Tel Aviv.

I'd be more worried about the educated women exodus to Labour than bleeding some LGBT activists

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think Meretz is going to pass now, a lot of lefties responded to the gevalt by voting strategically. Honestly kind of annoys me, their campaign wasn't and isn't good but they still pass each time off a lazy strategy of "we're not gonna pass!". Very lazy party.

[Hnv1]

I think Meretz is going to pass now, a lot of lefties responded to the gevalt by voting strategically. Honestly kind of annoys me, their campaign wasn't and isn't good but they still pass each time off a lazy strategy of "we're not gonna pass!". Very lazy party.

It will be a game of turnout, I believe they'll pass in a low turnout and be shy of the threshold in a higher turnout.

[Hnv1]

Final countdown prediction:
Gantz is in
Meretz and Ra'am out.
Bibi has no government with Yamina
Lapid has no government for a YA coalition
All hell is going to break loose in the house as the non Bibi majority will try to get rid of Levine and pass  a change to the basic law

http://objectivevote.org.il/?page=platforms&lang=he
a decent whodoIsidewith

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final countdown prediction:
Gantz is in
Meretz and Ra'am out.
Bibi has no government with Yamina
Lapid has no government for a YA coalition
All hell is going to break loose in the house as the non Bibi majority will try to get rid of Levine and pass  a change to the basic law

http://objectivevote.org.il/?page=platforms&lang=he
a decent whodoIsidewith

 My current prediction is Meretz in, Ra'am and Gantz out, Bibi has a government with Yamina.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Nah. Gantz and Meretz in, RZ and Ra’am out.

You're one optimistic guy

Just voted (military early voting)- Labour it is again.

[Hnv1]

Got my assignment as precinct secretary. My precinct voted last time 60% JL, 12% B&W, 12% Likud, 10% YB, 6% others. Turnout 58%.

Poor area, mixed Russians and Arabs. I think turnout will dip towards 40% this time.

[Vosem]

Final countdown prediction:
Gantz is in
Meretz and Ra'am out.
Bibi has no government with Yamina
Lapid has no government for a YA coalition
All hell is going to break loose in the house as the non Bibi majority will try to get rid of Levine and pass  a change to the basic law

http://objectivevote.org.il/?page=platforms&lang=he
a decent whodoIsidewith

Filled it out for fun:

Blue and White +15
Yesh Atid +12
Yisrael Beiteinu +9
New Hope/Yamina +8
Labor/Meretz +5
Religious Zionist/Likud +4
New Economy +3
Joint List 0
Ra'am -2
Shas/UTJ -3

It seems like certain parties have less specific platforms (or less extreme ones), and it's not possible to get very high scores for those parties. My actual sympathies in this election are with Beiteinu.

[Donerail]

Filled it out for fun:

Blue and White +15
Yesh Atid +12
Yisrael Beiteinu +9
New Hope/Yamina +8
Labor/Meretz +5
Religious Zionist/Likud +4
New Economy +3
Joint List 0
Ra'am -2
Shas/UTJ -3

It seems like certain parties have less specific platforms (or less extreme ones), and it's not possible to get very high scores for those parties. My actual sympathies in this election are with Beiteinu.

Yes, I think so — I also got +16 Blue and White (and +10 YB!), and I suspect you and I would not have the exact same priorities here. (Meretz +24 and Joint List +20, for the record.) I noticed that Yamina was the only party to express any disagreement with most of the labor/welfare state issues.

[MRCVzla]

My Objective Vote (just for fun and some curiosity for myself):
Yesh Atid +26
Meretz +25
Labor +18
Joint List +16
Blue & White/New Economic +12
Yisrael Beiteinu +10
New Hope +8
Ra'am +4
Shas/UTJ 0
Likud/Yamina -2
Religious Zionism -3

[Hnv1]

I was Labour and JL +13, Meretz  +9, YB+8.

Which is basically the four parties I’m on the fence with atm. Quite remarkable that Likud did not publish a platform since 2009.