Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

[Vosem]

Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

Hebrew Wikipedia suggests that they did not, and there were only six vote-surplus agreements:
- New Hope and Yamina
- Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu
- Blue and White and New Economics (Zelecha); I believe they don't count if a party doesn't hit the threshold
- Likud and Religious Zionist Party
- Labor and Meretz
- Shas and United Torah Judaism

Really leaving money on the table there.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

Hebrew Wikipedia suggests that they did not, and there were only six vote-surplus agreements:
- New Hope and Yamina
- Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu
- Blue and White and New Economics (Zelecha); I believe they don't count if a party doesn't hit the threshold
- Likud and Religious Zionist Party
- Labor and Meretz
- Shas and United Torah Judaism

Really leaving money on the table there.

Yep, they didn't. It shows how petty Abbad is (he's the one who refused to sign)- losing a seat just to get back at his former allies.

[Hnv1]

Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

That means Mossi Raz is back in the Knesset. A wonderful person

[Pericles]

How many seats away from a majority is Netanyahu right now? It's good that he hasn't won, but five elections would be even more ridiculous than four. What flaw in the political system is producing this gridlock, is it just sectarian and polarised politics or something to do with the electoral system too?

[Hnv1]

How many seats away from a majority is Netanyahu right now? It's good that he hasn't won, but five elections would be even more ridiculous than four. What flaw in the political system is producing this gridlock, is it just sectarian and polarised politics or something to do with the electoral system too?

Presumably 2 if Yamina are on board. A minority government is possible numerically now but still very much unlikely.

The new Knesset will elect a new President in June...this might be explosive for numerous reasons. I’ll keep my eyes on that

[Walmart_shopper]

How many seats away from a majority is Netanyahu right now? It's good that he hasn't won, but five elections would be even more ridiculous than four. What flaw in the political system is producing this gridlock, is it just sectarian and polarised politics or something to do with the electoral system too?

He has no majority. Smotrich has ruled out sitting with the Arabs. Either the center left pulls a nimble move and forms a government or we are indeed headed for a late summer election. As Hnv said the presidential election could get pretty wild, especially if some people try to propise offering the position to Bibi (he would get immunity, Israel would be free of his regime). Doubt that will happen but you never know.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

So, if there isn't a new government in place by November, will Gantz become caretaker Prime Minister under the previous rotation agreement? If so, that's both fantastic and hilarious!

Yeah it really does feel like November is when the nightmare ends, one way or another. It could get real messy on our way there, though.

[Hnv1]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

So, if there isn't a new government in place by November, will Gantz become caretaker Prime Minister under the previous rotation agreement? If so, that's both fantastic and hilarious!

Yeah it really does feel like November is when the nightmare ends, one way or another. It could get real messy on our way there, though.

Now that Gantz was elected again the interim duumiverate government is unchallenged. Unless a government is sworn in no new one will be sworn before November even if there is a fifth cycle.

There are two pending legal questions though:
- is the interim government fully in place, i.e., is the predesignated rotation date in place despite the fall of the government. It would seem the answer is yes...though to be frank there is very little legal material (local or comparative) to base it on.
- The SC published its ruling today that Bibi is in conflict of interest regarding appointing judges and the AG. In a section of a ruling, they did say the AG position is obligatory towards the government but he cannot enforce it. Come November the AG might announce Gantz has PM authorities but Bibi might refuse to accept it and try to continue to direct government agencies. I'm not sure what will happen if some ministries held by Likud refuse to comply with orders from Gantz and listen only to Bibi. Now that will be chaotic.

[Hnv1]

Likud set to gain one seat over JL (31 to 5)
Yamina set to gain one over New Hope (7 to 5)
with them Bibi has 61. Unelss Shas loses one to YA.


Brace yourself, in several hours it's either tears or sighs

[America Needs R'hllor]

Likud set to gain one seat over JL (31 to 5)
Yamina set to gain one over New Hope (7 to 5)
with them Bibi has 61. Unelss Shas loses one to YA.


Brace yourself, in several hours it's either tears or sighs

Holy sh**t no

[jaichind]

Likud set to gain one seat over JL (31 to 5)
Yamina set to gain one over New Hope (7 to 5)
with them Bibi has 61. Unelss Shas loses one to YA.


Brace yourself, in several hours it's either tears or sighs

Wow ... after all that Netanyahu might now win on surplus vote share agreements ?  Amazing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to channel 12 it's over. 61 for the anti Bibi bloc

[CumbrianLefty]

How many seats away from a majority is Netanyahu right now? It's good that he hasn't won, but five elections would be even more ridiculous than four. What flaw in the political system is producing this gridlock, is it just sectarian and polarised politics or something to do with the electoral system too?

He has no majority. Smotrich has ruled out sitting with the Arabs. Either the center left pulls a nimble move and forms a government or we are indeed headed for a late summer election. As Hnv said the presidential election could get pretty wild, especially if some people try to propise offering the position to Bibi (he would get immunity, Israel would be free of his regime). Doubt that will happen but you never know.

I've seen it speculated that this is what he actually wants if he again can't get a majority?

[KaiserDave]

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

At least one Israeli news channel has "called" the election for more deadlock. Looks like the surplus vote agreements weren't quite enough for Bibi.

[KaiserDave]

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

At least one Israeli news channel has "called" the election for more deadlock. Looks like the surplus vote agreements weren't quite enough for Bibi.

Alright, alright, good. Worst case avoided. Now, what happens? Presumably an election in August, but who will be Prime Minister until then?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The generally pro-Bibi Jerusalem Post confirms no Bibi majority.

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

At least one Israeli news channel has "called" the election for more deadlock. Looks like the surplus vote agreements weren't quite enough for Bibi.

Alright, alright, good. Worst case avoided. Now, what happens? Presumably an election in August, but who will be Prime Minister until then?

Bibi stays caretaker PM until either someone else successfully forms a government or the anti bloc+Ra'am rams through a law disqualifying (and thus deposing) him. However, if this is still the situation in November (an astounding but real possibility), Gantz automatically becomes PM under the previous rotation agreement. Yes, seriously.

[KaiserDave]

The generally pro-Bibi Jerusalem Post confirms no Bibi majority.

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

At least one Israeli news channel has "called" the election for more deadlock. Looks like the surplus vote agreements weren't quite enough for Bibi.

Alright, alright, good. Worst case avoided. Now, what happens? Presumably an election in August, but who will be Prime Minister until then?

Bibi stays caretaker PM until either someone else successfully forms a government or the anti bloc+Ra'am rams through a law disqualifying (and thus deposing) him. However, if this is still the situation in November (an astounding but real possibility), Gantz automatically becomes PM under the previous rotation agreement. Yes, seriously.

So more instability, and then Gantz as PM in November. My my.

[Hnv1]

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

Last batches returned to normal distribution so the changes are now unlikely. We have our seat allocation now let the games begin.

As I said the solution could come in the presidential election in June. I’ll be looking closely at that

[KaiserDave]

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

Last batches returned to normal distribution so the changes are now unlikely. We have our seat allocation now let the games begin.

As I said the solution could come in the presidential election in June. I’ll be looking closely at that

Is there any chance Netenyahu is able to woo/bribe/threaten Sa'ar into returning to the fold or no?

[brucejoel99]

Would that even be enough to change what's going on? Bibi could always offer some obvious stand-in for himself as a candidate for Prime Minister. (Or just keep running and promise to change the law to re-qualify himself if he wins, since arguably the point of the whole 2019-present political crisis is the immunity law, which Bibi wouldn't want if he weren't Prime Minister.)

The formation of New Hope seemed to offer a, well, new hope to end the crisis by convincing pro-Bibi voters over to the anti-Bibi side, but its total flameout suggests that was never going to happen. If persuasion over the course of repeated elections doesn't work, then the crisis keeps going until Likud chooses, voluntarily, to get rid of Bibi and come up with a different candidate who can convince the Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope people to rejoin their coalition. That's probably not possible unless/until Bibi actually goes to jail.

(Kind of looking forward to Gantz taking over in November at this point.)

In regards to the bolded, the proposed law wouldn't allow him to actually keep running himself unless & until it's been formally repealed.

As for everything else, the short answer is basically deep game theory magic: that is, an entire system based on the absolute power, influence, infallibility, & (frankly, the) undefeatability of one man is gonna more-or-less just absolutely be shocked to its core when he's legally forced to no longer put his own name on the ballot, with himself no longer holding formal control over Israeli politics, Likud politics, & a significant amount of the careers thereof as a result. I mean, do you really think that if Miki Zohar or somebody like him were put up by Bibi as a stand-in for his being PM, then Zohar wouldn't be sorely tempted to just use his newly-acquired power to not repeal the ban & willingly hand his formal power back over to Bibi? And that's just one consideration of such a leadership conundrum. Basically, though, it's presumed that such a point would basically amount to what would finally be the catastrophic tipping point at which Bibi's absolute leadership would basically just crumble.

Now that Gantz was elected again the interim duumiverate government is unchallenged. Unless a government is sworn in no new one will be sworn before November even if there is a fifth cycle.

There are two pending legal questions though:
- is the interim government fully in place, i.e., is the predesignated rotation date in place despite the fall of the government. It would seem the answer is yes...though to be frank there is very little legal material (local or comparative) to base it on.
- The SC published its ruling today that Bibi is in conflict of interest regarding appointing judges and the AG. In a section of a ruling, they did say the AG position is obligatory towards the government but he cannot enforce it. Come November the AG might announce Gantz has PM authorities but Bibi might refuse to accept it and try to continue to direct government agencies. I'm not sure what will happen if some ministries held by Likud refuse to comply with orders from Gantz and listen only to Bibi. Now that will be chaotic.

Wasn't the rotation agreement codified into the Basic Law, though? Short of a new government being formed before Nov. 17th, how does the law as currently promulgated not force Bibi to keep to the agreement & step aside then?

So is it sighs or tears??? Do we have 61?

Last batches returned to normal distribution so the changes are now unlikely. We have our seat allocation now let the games begin.

As I said the solution could come in the presidential election in June. I’ll be looking closely at that

Is there any chance Netenyahu is able to woo/bribe/threaten Sa'ar into returning to the fold or no?

I mean, it obviously worked last time on Gantz, so who knows how successful their fooling might be this time? Gun to my head, though, I think even Sa'ar would refuse such pressure at this point: he's been adamant about his refusal to join Bibi or the RZP, not least after having seen how Gantz lost a lot of support. Of course, he'll still undoubtedly be pressured, though, but it'll be up to him to refuse it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Oh we got double envelope results:
Likud 25.5%
YA 13.8%
Yamemena 9.4%
Labour 8.1%
YB 6.6%
Kahanists 6.4%
KL 6.3%
Shas 5.7%
New Joke 5.2%
Meretz 4.8%
UTJ 3.26%
JL 2.6%
Ra'am 1.6%
Zalicha 0.9%
Antivax kooks 0.3%
Pirates 0.1%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Oh we got double envelope results:
Likud 25.5%
YA 13.8%
Yamemena 9.4%
Labour 8.1%
YB 6.6%
Kahanists 6.4%
KL 6.3%
Shas 5.7%
New Joke 5.2%
Meretz 4.8%
UTJ 3.26%
JL 2.6%
Ra'am 1.6%
Zalicha 0.9%
Antivax kooks 0.3%
Pirates 0.1%

Does this change the seat totals any?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Oh we got double envelope results:
Likud 25.5%
YA 13.8%
Yamemena 9.4%
Labour 8.1%
YB 6.6%
Kahanists 6.4%
KL 6.3%
Shas 5.7%
New Joke 5.2%
Meretz 4.8%
UTJ 3.26%
JL 2.6%
Ra'am 1.6%
Zalicha 0.9%
Antivax kooks 0.3%
Pirates 0.1%

Does this change the seat totals any?

Nope, except of the seat it moved from Ra'am to Meretz.