Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Adam Griffin]

After 1.873M votes counted (%):
Likud: 24.75
Yesh Atid: 12.67
Shas: 8.02
UTJ: 7.22
Blue And White: 6.1
Yamina: 6.08
Beitenu: 6.02
Religious Zionism: 5.59
Joint List: 5.3
Labour: 5.14
New Hope: 4.64
Meretz: 3.74
RAAM: 3.24

RAAM drops just below the 3.25% threshold.

2.220M votes in (~50%):

Code:

Likud 		24.93
Yesh Atid 		12.98
Shas 		7.83
UTJ 			6.86
Blue and White 	6.22
Yamina 		6.21
Beitenu 		5.73
Religious Zion.   5.63
Joint List 		5.28
Labour 		5.22
New Hope 		4.71
Meretz 		3.79
RAAM 		3.10

[Logical]

2.808M counted

Likud: 23.72
Yesh Atid: 13.75
Shas: 7.62
UTJ: 7.00
Blue And White: 6.59
Labor : 6.01
Yamina : 5.87
YB: 5.38
Joint List : 5.18
Religious Zionism: 5.13
Meretz: 4.65
New Hope: 4.62
Ra'am : 3.01
Zalicha : 0.76

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374588265320288256

[brucejoel99]

I'm starting to think that Israel's just never gonna have a new PM at this rate. Might as well just replace the impending 5th election with a constituent assembly that writes a new Constitution/Basic Law to either completely revise the electoral system or just codify the unfortunate Bibi monarchy into law.

[Logical]

2.808M counted

Likud: 23.72
Yesh Atid: 13.75
Shas: 7.62
UTJ: 7.00
Blue And White: 6.59
Labor : 6.01
Yamina : 5.87
YB: 5.38
Joint List : 5.18
Religious Zionism: 5.13
Meretz: 4.65
New Hope: 4.62
Ra'am : 3.01
Zalicha : 0.76

3.087M counted
Likud: 23.66
Yesh Atid: 14.15
Shas: 7.38
Blue And White: 6.75
UTJ: 6.50
Labor : 6.12
Yamina : 5.78
YB: 5.39
Joint List : 5.33
Religious Zionism: 4.91
Meretz: 4.77
New Hope: 4.68
Ra'am : 3.09
Zalicha : 0.78

[Adam Griffin]

Could be wrong in my rounding or my assumption of how Ra'am vote is handled, but...

Code:

Pro-Netanyahu	44.49% (53 seats)
Anti-Netanyahu	43.86% (53 seats)
Yamina		6.06%  (7 seats)
Arabs     	        5.59%  (7 seats)

That's 60-60 I suppose if you assume Yamina goes with Bibi and JL does not.

[Logical]

3.087M counted
Likud: 23.66
Yesh Atid: 14.15
Shas: 7.38
Blue And White: 6.75
UTJ: 6.50
Labor : 6.12
Yamina : 5.78
YB: 5.39
Joint List : 5.33
Religious Zionism: 4.91
Meretz: 4.77
New Hope: 4.68
Ra'am : 3.09
Zalicha : 0.78

3.450M counted
Likud: 24.29
Yesh Atid: 13.91
Shas: 7.56
Blue And White: 6.64
UTJ: 6.30
Labor : 5.90
Yamina : 5.74
YB: 5.66
Joint List : 5.26
Religious Zionism: 4.87
New Hope: 4.69
Meretz: 4.56
Ra'am : 3.15

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

[Estrella]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

"Several" is a bit of an understatement.

Meretz and Labour are now officially together. Anyone knows how many historical parties have immersed in this move? (It’s much more than 10)

Depends on how pedantic we want to get.

From the top:

Labor-Gesher-Meretz

Easiest one first: Gesher (1)
From Orly Levy: Yisrael Beiteinu (2)

Democratic Union (3)
Meretz (4)
-Ratz (5)
--Ya'ad-Civil Rights Movement (6)
--Left Camp of Israel (7)
---Independent Socialist Faction (8 )
---Meri (9)
---Moked (10)
----Maki (11)
-----Hebrew Communists (12)
-----Palestine Communist Party (13)
-----National Liberation League (14)
----Siah (15)
---Black Panthers (16)
-Mapam (17)
--Hashomer Hatzair (18)
---Socialist League of Palestine (19)
--Poale Zion (20)
-Shinui (21)
--Dash (22)

Democratic Israel (23)
From Ehud Barak: Independence  (24)

Democratic Choice (25)
-Yisrael BaAliyah (26)

Avoda (27)
Mapai (28)
-Ahdut haAvoda (29)
-Hapoel Hatzair (30)
Rafi (31)

From Labor alliances:
HaMaarakh (32)
One Israel (33)
Zionist Union (34)

From Amir Peretz:
One Nation (35)
Hatnuah (36)
- Hetz (37)

Possible additions: Kadima from Hatnuah, Likud from Kadima , Greens from DU and Hatnuah, Meimad from Greens. Possibly Kulanu from Avi Gabbay, if we're being silly, and Likud again from Kulanu, and then all of the Likud historical bullsh**t. And we can even get all of Mapam's Arab and other satellites.

[Oryxslayer]

Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

Probably some flips what I am seeing. Shas certainly isn't going to end at 10. A big vote pool uncounted right now is the Bedouin villages in the Negev, and that could push Ra'am over.

[Logical]

Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

It appears to me that Ra'am might still get in, many Bedouin villages in the south have not reported yet and the Haredim looks to have maxed out as well.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

I really can't tell from the ynet map what'a still out. But if there is still plenty of Negev vote out then Raam will likely slide in.

[Logical]

3.450M counted
Likud: 24.29
Yesh Atid: 13.91
Shas: 7.56
Blue And White: 6.64
UTJ: 6.30
Labor : 5.90
Yamina : 5.74
YB: 5.66
Joint List : 5.26
Religious Zionism: 4.87
New Hope: 4.69
Meretz: 4.56
Ra'am : 3.15

3.847M counted
Likud: 24.22
Yesh Atid: 13.91
Shas: 7.33
Blue And White: 6.63
Yamina : 5.89
Labor : 5.87
UTJ: 5.87
YB: 5.55
Joint List : 5.01
Religious Zionism: 4.97
New Hope: 4.70
Meretz: 4.54
Ra'am : 4.03

Ra'am comfortably above the threshold now

[Oryxslayer]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

[Walmart_shopper]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

[danny]

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

Not really, we don't get the prison vote separately, but the Arab party (or parties) always get less with the double envelopes compared to the regular votes.

[Oryxslayer]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

Yeah that is Ra'am's last big pool, but its just more doubles. Remaining E-Day vote appears to be scattered across all the populous areas, slightly weighted towards the Tel-Aviv region. Then there's the usual Double Envelopes and the generous pool of Covid related additional ballots which we won't know about for a day or two. Given the unequal vaccination distribution there may be a good number of Arabs in the Covid pool, but that's just guessing.

[Oryxslayer]

Another 14K voted counted. Not much change. All the .01% or so gainers were Secular Jewish parties.

[Walmart_shopper]

The latest update included the Bedouin villages. Ra'am past threshold at 4%. Probably won't be getting too many more votes, so this total needs to survive the remaining 550-600K.

The prison vote usually gives the Arab parties an extra mandate, so there us that.

Yeah that is Ra'am's last big pool, but its just more doubles. Remaining E-Day vote appears to be scattered across all the populous areas, slightly weighted towards the Tel-Aviv region. Then there's the usual Double Envelopes and the generous pool of Covid related additional ballots which we won't know about for a day or two. Given the unequal vaccination distribution there may be a good number of Arabs in the Covid pool, but that's just guessing.

The majority of quarantine votes will be Arab and possibly some Haredim,  but there will be very few of them.

[H. Ross Peron]

Does Israel do exit polling by socioeconomic status or income? Curious how the less devout section of the working class votes, especially trade union members.

[Hnv1]

Does Israel do exit polling by socioeconomic status or income? Curious how the less devout section of the working class votes, especially trade union members.

used to be Labour, shifted to Likud mostly.

[kelestian]

Don't like Bibi, but I must acknowledge israeli almost perfect vaccination campaign. Guess there is some Bibi's contribution there

[jaichind]

So if Ra'am is now going to be above the threshold is there any alternative to another election in the Summer ?

[warandwar]

Does Israel do exit polling by socioeconomic status or income? Curious how the less devout section of the working class votes, especially trade union members.

Matzpen had great writing on this in the 70s and 89s. I'd check their website.

[Mike88]

What?? I'll drink what his drinking.