Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[jaymichaud]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

[Oryxslayer]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

The Joint List this cycle has no prospects - if they couldn't get access under Gantz, they certainly won't with Sa'ar. This means that the list is clearly an opposing 3rd pillar, so any anti-Bibi potential government must obtain more than 61 without the Arab parties.

[Hnv1]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

They don't, their role is at best passive this time, preventing the Bibi bloc with Yamina from getting to 61 seats.

Ra'am is going to edge the threshold either above it or under it. if it's under Likud will get 1-2 additional seats

[Hnv1]

39 lists registered for this election cycle, an increase of 9 from 2020 (though that was a low compared to earlier cycles).

2020 also had no list close to the threshold. Otzma spoiled 0.42% of the voters, and a minor libertarian party spoiled another 0.08%. 2019 saw a huge number of over 8% of the votes going to parties below the threshold with The New Right, Zehut, and Gesher the biggest burners.

This time B&W, the Religious Zios, and Ra'am will be all around the threshold. part for them I expect Zalicha to burn about 1% if he goes on to the end. Am Shalem (modern Haredi), Democratic party (radical direct democracy\Balfour protestors), and Ma'an (some inclusionist arab party) could all burn between 0.1%-0.5% of the votes

[Babeuf]

Who is still voting for B&W in sizable enough numbers for them to feasibly be above the threshold? After Gantz’s total humiliation it’s hard to believe he can make it over.

[Hnv1]

Who is still voting for B&W in sizable enough numbers for them to feasibly be above the threshold? After Gantz’s total humiliation it’s hard to believe he can make it over.

Professional army men and veterans, some super boring centrists who like generals, people with no strong opinion on anything.

There’s a dispute on the veterans’ pensions atm, Gantz can be counted to look after that

[Oryxslayer]

Well, Bibi's trial resumed today.

[Hnv1]

Well, Bibi's trial resumed today.

It’s going to take at least 2 years if not more (discounting the appeal). Today and the next sessions would be about preliminary matters and defence claims. The AG’s tenure is done in 2022, Bibi will be desperate to get the next one be more favourable. An AG can freeze a trial according to our criminal procedure, the trial will never resume in that case...I think Bibi wants to go down that route, much more slick and less eye poking than personal legislation

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

New Channel 20 poll:
Likud 31
Yesh Atid 18
New Hope 11
Joint List 10
Yamina 10
Shas 8
UTJ 7
Labor 6
YB 6
KL 5
Otzma/RZ 4
Meretz 4

[Mike88]

So New Hope is without any hope?

[jaichind]

Looks like this time around there will be a lot more wasted anti-Likud votes than in 2020.  This can only be good news for Netanyahu

[Hnv1]

What a boring cycle. Some old gits complaining about Labour become "radical left".

Bless the lord we now have MK Nissim Vaturi on twitter. A serious contender for dumbest Likud MK ever, and there's a long and (un)impressive list of contenders there.

[Coldstream]

The polling seems to indicate there’s a non-zero chance Meretz slip below the threshold courtesy of Zalekha.

[Hnv1]

The polling seems to indicate there’s a non-zero chance Meretz slip below the threshold courtesy of Zalekha.

One can only hope (I was a member for most of my adult life).

My father and sister both moved ship to Labour, and I drifted to the JL. The Meretz base is vanishing

[warandwar]

https://m.maariv.co.il/amp/elections-2021/Article-822043?__twitter_impression=true
20 Israeli Arab HaAvodah "activists" publicly drop out of the party - basically saying that it's too Tel Aviv for them. Wondering if any of you know the inside baseball here.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://m.maariv.co.il/amp/elections-2021/Article-822043?__twitter_impression=true
20 Israeli Arab HaAvodah "activists" publicly drop out of the party - basically saying that it's too Tel Aviv for them. Wondering if any of you know the inside baseball here.

Yawn, didn't hear of it, probably a bunch of old guard power brokers frustrated that the leader doesn't let power brokers do what they want anymore.

In any case, while as a person from the periphery I get the frustration with the left's Tel Avivism, it's also pretty frustrating to see it time and again. Tel Aviv is one of the only cities where I can feel safe holding hands with my boyfriend, for one- we have a lot to learn from it. Labour's list is led by a feminist groundbreaker and includes a reform Rabbie, an Arab woman, a woman who came from very poor background. What do this people want, to get 1% in the polls like Peretz? Well, the answer is yes, as long as they get to control the party.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The (partisan) election committee blocked Ibtisam Mara'ana, continuing the right's sick obsession with her. Likud won't even support banning the joint list and Ra'am this time, but they voted for the kahanist Ben Gvir's proposal to ban Ibtisam.

In a proper country all ben gvir would get is a punch to his stupid face like Richard Spencer got.

[CumbrianLefty]

What do this people want, to get 1% in the polls like Peretz? Well, the answer is yes, as long as they get to control the party.

I genuinely don't get this determination to "control" a smoking ruin at almost any cost.

(and yes, recent parallels with certain other social democratic parties are certainly available)

[Oryxslayer]

What do this people want, to get 1% in the polls like Peretz? Well, the answer is yes, as long as they get to control the party.

I genuinely don't get this determination to "control" a smoking ruin at almost any cost.

(and yes, recent parallels with certain other social democratic parties are certainly available)

When a party is imploding, it this type of infighting only becomes more common even though it has a high chance of facilitating the parties destruction in the long term. Those that seek positions of leadership are more likely to recognize the long term trajectory and want to readjust that trend, whatever the cost. However, everyone comes in with this mindset. This means only one 'reformer' can only ever really be satisfied, all the others always see the current leadership as continuing to facilitate or even encouraging the parties decline. They therefore take steps to oppose this leadership before it does any perceived damage, which means more infighting.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but Israel Labour is having a mini-revival under its new leader. Which makes this all the sillier.

[libertpaulian]

Unless the vaccine rollout somehow implodes in the next few weeks (not), this race is BiBi's to lose.

[crals]

The (partisan) election committee blocked Ibtisam Mara'ana, continuing the right's sick obsession with her. Likud won't even support banning the joint list and Ra'am this time, but they voted for the kahanist Ben Gvir's proposal to ban Ibtisam.

In a proper country all ben gvir would get is a punch to his stupid face like Richard Spencer got.

What was the reasoning to ban her? Could this help or hinder Labour?

[America Needs R'hllor]

The (partisan) election committee blocked Ibtisam Mara'ana, continuing the right's sick obsession with her. Likud won't even support banning the joint list and Ra'am this time, but they voted for the kahanist Ben Gvir's proposal to ban Ibtisam.

In a proper country all ben gvir would get is a punch to his stupid face like Richard Spencer got.

What was the reasoning to ban her? Could this help or hinder Labour?

According to Ben Gvir's appeal: she incites terrorism (baldfaced lie), supports incitement to the PM's murder (she doesn't, but Ben Gvir famously threatened Rabin and celebrated Sharon's stroke), opposed Israel and zionism (no), denies Israel as a Jewish and democratic nation (she doesn't, but Ben Gvir and his buddies actively oppose the "democratic" part), and incites racism against Jews (she doesn't, but Ben Gvir being a racist is a huge understatement). In conclusion, a bunch of projections from Israel's leading Kahanist.

In a proper country this would be like an endorsement, but I think it'll slightly hurt by putting more spotlight on "scary arab woman" and scare some moderates away from Labour.

[Hnv1]

https://m.maariv.co.il/amp/elections-2021/Article-822043?__twitter_impression=true
20 Israeli Arab HaAvodah "activists" publicly drop out of the party - basically saying that it's too Tel Aviv for them. Wondering if any of you know the inside baseball here.

They are joined by some old farts (mainly Kibbutzniks) who defect to Gantz as he's the "old Mapai". Well they're not wrong but their weight is marginal. In 2021 Israel, all Kibbutzim combined equal to around 2 seats.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

What is New Hope? Sorry for the dumb question I missed it.