Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Huldai is out as well.

The far-right union is almost complete (I still think they won't make the threshold).

So currently it looks as if Zalicha will be the biggest one under the threshold from the centre left

[NyIndy]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Gesher is just Orly Levy. She's supposed to get some spot on Likud's list

[Hnv1]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Orly Levy is going to be listed as number 26 in Likud. And she's basically Gesher's only member and voter.

[jaichind]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Gesher is just Orly Levy. She's supposed to get some spot on Likud's list

Why would Likud do that?  The people that voted for her list last election would not vote Likud.  Would they not want her to run by herself and split the anti-Likud vote ?

[Oryxslayer]

Tnufa is also out BTW, if anyone cared.

[jaymichaud]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Orly Levy is going to be listed as number 26 in Likud. And she's basically Gesher's only member and voter.

Uhhh? So was she actually a fifth column or is she just that self absorbed?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Today, watching Ben Gvir smile as he's interviewed in prime time by the most popular Israeli TV channel, is a good day to recall my favourite political activity in my short life- the time we busted an election debate in the Hebrew University because they gave a platform to Ben Gvir. Was absolutely cathartic to shout at this loathsome monster and make sure no one can ignore that his presence there was out of the ordinary.

[Hnv1]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Gesher is just Orly Levy. She's supposed to get some spot on Likud's list

Why would Likud do that?  The people that voted for her list last election would not vote Likud.  Would they not want her to run by herself and split the anti-Likud vote ?

To show future defectors they won’t be left to the dogs

[America Needs R'hllor]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

[Oryxslayer]

JH withdraws their ticket, endorses their former Yamina partners in exchange for potential ministerial seat. Sounds like a slap in the face to Bibi's attempt to build a united Fascist ticket if Yamina is actually gonna end up deserting him for that potential Non-Haredi/Non-Bibi right-wing govt.

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

[America Needs R'hllor]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

[palandio]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

What is the problem? There seem to be multiple instances where independent candidates and candidates from minor parties are/were running on other lists. As far as I know Huldai and Nissenkorn were formally Labor members, too?

Is it the "backup" idea that is questionable, i.e. if you fail the threshold, you still get a representative? Is it that formally lists have to be the union of parties, and no party should be in two lists?

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

What is the problem? There seem to be multiple instances where independent candidates and candidates from minor parties are/were running on other lists. As far as I know Huldai and Nissenkorn were formally Labor members, too?

Is it the "backup" idea that is questionable, i.e. if you fail the threshold, you still get a representative? Is it that formally lists have to be the union of parties, and no party should be in two lists?

Multitude of problems:
- firstly each list is supposed to be representative of a party or a union of parties. Here we have a person who is quite known as being a member of a different party (NU) running and getting in through votes given to a different list (Likud) while his list is competing. In abstract political theory we have a problem here. If voters wanted NU to get another MK they should vote for them.
- it is a form of political bribery to facilitate mergers in other parties.  Political scalping of the lowest order where the currency is votes.
- the use of fake Skelton parties is vulgar. It’s a non bona fide use of the freedom of association to allow the bypass the threshold laws. It’s kinda like CDU forming two parties one for the regional races and one for the national votes to get extra seats. It’s a manipulation of the electoral system
- it will encourage further political racketeering in the future.

I think it will be hilarious if Smotric fails to pass the threshold and Sofer gets in

[America Needs R'hllor]

Channel 12:
Likud 29
Yesh Atid 17
New Hope 14
Yamina 11
Joint List 9
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 7
Labour 6
Meretz 4
KL 4
Smotrich 4
Zalicha 2.8%
Ra'am 1.7%
Ma'an (new Arab Party) 1.3%
Am Shalem (party lead by former Shas MK Haim Amsallem) 0.2%

Channel 13:
Channel 13 poll:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
New Hope 13
Yamina 11
Labour 7
Joint List 7
Shas 7
UTJ 6
Smotrich 5
YB 5
KL 4
Meretz 4
Ra'am 4

Also, one worrying sign to me is that The Media decided on a narrative. I first saw this take on twitter and from some pundits, but now it's stated as a fact in poll analysis and reports- "Labour and Meretz have nearly indistinguishable lists, and will have to fight for the same pool of leftie voters". The reason, of course, is that Labour has scary Mizrahi and Arab women (ignoring Omer Bar Lev, Ram Shefa, Nahman Shai, Gilad Kariv, and of course that Michaeli is definitely not a radical).

But our media do this a lot- some piece of analysis becomes widespread, they start treating it as a fact and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm definitely worried center-left voters will listen to the media and flee to KL or Yesh Atid.

[DC Al Fine]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

What's a reserved spot?

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

What's a reserved spot?

Spots that the party leader can man and aren't pick by the members in primaries (that didn't happen for two years now...).

i.e., spots Bibi fills to please some people, put in hard loyalists, and push back as far as he can figures like Ayoub Kara because jesus wept he's an embarrassment

[Continential]

What is Ma'an's ideology, from what I have seen, it is apparently a party to help elderly arabs in poverty.¹

[jaichind]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

[Oryxslayer]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

Here's the interesting thing. Yamina is just Bennett right now, no NU and JH is only a background ally. Yamina has also expressed interest in the anti-Bibi/anti-Haredi govt, so they might end up betraying Bibi for the Sa'ar - Lapid -Lieberman option. There is a reason why Bibi tried to build up a new "Yamina" coalition among the minor right-wing religious Zionists and fascist groups.

However, Bibi will will end up with the most seats this election, that much is guaranteed. There is additionally no cut-and-dry opposition govt that can easily be formed based on political similarities. So Likud will end up with the structural advantage when looking to form a government, which could easily lead to previous doubter joining his govt - similar to Gantz last round. There is additionally an undercurrent that if Sa'ar or Bibi end up with momentum after the election then some MK's elected for Likud/NH may jump ship to the other, to preserve their own personal access to power, changing the math entirely. This is why Sa'ar still is the likely non-Bibi PM candidate, even though Lapid has more MK's in polls.

[Vosem]

The obvious Bibi coalition is Likud+Haredim+RZ, all of which are obvious Bibi allies. Beyond that it gets very dicey; the obvious partner is Yamina, but most polls suggest that isn't a majority either and some other party needs to be brought over. New Hope and B&W both might (as might a breakaway from New Hope), but it doesn't look very good.

However...the alternative is a very broad anti-Bibi coalition that has no ideological coherence whatsoever apart from not being Bibi. Generally, if you exclude Likud, the Haredim, the Arabs, and RZ, you get a majority (and sometimes a comfortable one), but it's one that spans from Yamina to Meretz. It's kind of hard to envision such a government being formed. If it is, even if Lapid leads the largest party, Sa'ar is still a likelier PM because he would be able to keep the right-wing parties onside (Yamina and YB are not likely to want to join a government with Meretz), while the left or center-left parties have little alternative (to the point that I think Meretz has voiced being open to just supporting the government while remaining outside of it).

[jaymichaud]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

Here's the interesting thing. Yamina is just Bennett right now, no NU and JH is only a background ally. Yamina has also expressed interest in the anti-Bibi/anti-Haredi govt, so they might end up betraying Bibi for the Sa'ar - Lapid -Lieberman option. There is a reason why Bibi tried to build up a new "Yamina" coalition among the minor right-wing religious Zionists and fascist groups.

However, Bibi will will end up with the most seats this election, that much is guaranteed. There is additionally no cut-and-dry opposition govt that can easily be formed based on political similarities. So Likud will end up with the structural advantage when looking to form a government, which could easily lead to previous doubter joining his govt - similar to Gantz last round. There is additionally an undercurrent that if Sa'ar or Bibi end up with momentum after the election then some MK's elected for Likud/NH may jump ship to the other, to preserve their own personal access to power, changing the math entirely. This is why Sa'ar still is the likely non-Bibi PM candidate, even though Lapid has more MK's in polls.

At most there could be a YA/NH/Labor/Yamina/YB/B&W frankenstein coalition with Lapid and Sa'ar as rotating PMs, but government formation could be hard work and they probably wouldn't get sh**t done anyways.

[Hnv1]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.