Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Isn't the thing about Labour that they have almost no voters left (even most of *their own members* support other parties now) but still significant assets?

I think the SDP of Japan is in a not totally dissimilar position.

they have no voters. party financing of 3-4 million, and assets worth around 150-200 million that can't be liquified so quickly anyhow but you can get credit with them.

the most reasonable thing to do is for them and Meretz to run together and afterward unify the parties (Meretz have some assets as well inheireted from Mapam). There really isn't anymore room left for both. But Labour has too much pride about being the founders and Meretz too many egos

I don't see Meretz agreeing to run with Labour after they entered the government- maybe if Michaeli leads them and they purge the Peretz faction (they have enough anti Peretz members- Bar Lev and Biran are two examples I can think of rn). They also need to purge that insufferable chairman, Hermoni.

Anyway I can see why Michaeli didn't want to go to Meretz- it's a party that's incredibly hostile to anyone from outside. They turned on Shaffir and Barak with the speed of light and there's a lot of hostility towards Yair Golan. They're indeed full of egos that wouldn't want to lose their precious 5th or 6th spot if it meant the country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lmao Science Minister Yizhar Shai is joining Ya'alon in "joint leadership", being number 2. The fact that he's making this nobody who's slightly less of a nobody co leader is really telling. The pool of names has really dried after three elections. You see it in Huldai's list full of nobodies too

[Continential]

Can someone give me a description of the parties contesting the election as I am stuck on the supportbases of each party.   

[Hnv1]

Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Isn't the thing about Labour that they have almost no voters left (even most of *their own members* support other parties now) but still significant assets?

I think the SDP of Japan is in a not totally dissimilar position.

they have no voters. party financing of 3-4 million, and assets worth around 150-200 million that can't be liquified so quickly anyhow but you can get credit with them.

the most reasonable thing to do is for them and Meretz to run together and afterward unify the parties (Meretz have some assets as well inheireted from Mapam). There really isn't anymore room left for both. But Labour has too much pride about being the founders and Meretz too many egos

I don't see Meretz agreeing to run with Labour after they entered the government- maybe if Michaeli leads them and they purge the Peretz faction (they have enough anti Peretz members- Bar Lev and Biran are two examples I can think of rn). They also need to purge that insufferable chairman, Hermoni.

Anyway I can see why Michaeli didn't want to go to Meretz- it's a party that's incredibly hostile to anyone from outside. They turned on Shaffir and Barak with the speed of light and there's a lot of hostility towards Yair Golan. They're indeed full of egos that wouldn't want to lose their precious 5th or 6th spot if it meant the country.

Michaeli is currently the only contender for the leadership, and I think shmuli would leave for YA instead of risk losing to her at the rat race to the bottom.
Shaffir didn't make it easy on herself, and Golan is simply not left-wing and an embarrassment. I believe Michaeli is a better fit than either. But what chance do they have, if Michaeli goes all the way by herself both could be under the threshold.

Both parties deserve to die for all I care. I definitely won't vote for either anyhow

[Hnv1]

Can someone give me a description of the parties contesting the election as I am stuck on the supportbases of each party.   

I'd wait for February 3rd and list registration as I doubt so many parties will contest with a 3.75% threshold.

[Hnv1]

Shelah callig Huldai and "heads of Labour" (who?) to work to run together. considering Huldai is nearing the threshold, Shelah is polling around 1% and Labour at 2% it would make sense.

Probably look like: Huldai, Nissenkorn, Shelah, Michaeli, Karin Nahon

[Hnv1]

Smotric is breaking away from Yamina (for now...this is the national religious politicians we're talking about). JH is merging back into Yamina (Peretz resigned). Either Smotric returns after he gets 3 spots in the top 10, or he runs with Jewish Power (and in that case, we can add them to the Bibi bloc tally).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Smotric is breaking away from Yamina (for now...this is the national religious politicians we're talking about). JH is merging back into Yamina (Peretz resigned). Either Smotric returns after he gets 3 spots in the top 10, or he runs with Jewish Power (and in that case, we can add them to the Bibi bloc tally).

This would be a gift for Netanyahu, I imagine.

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 Poll
Likud - 29
New Hope - 16
Yesh Atid - 13
Yamina/New Right - 13
Joint List - 10
Shas - 8
UTJ - 8
Yisrael Beitenu - 7
Israelis - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 5
----------------------------
NEP - 2.7%
Religious Zionist Party - 2.5%
Labor - 1.1%
Telem - 0.7%
Jewish Home - 0.7%
Otzma - 0.7%
Tnufa - 0.3%
Gesher - 0.0%

Sa'ar + Gantz + Lapid + Bennett + Lieberman + Huldai is 60.

[Continential]

lol at Gesher

[Hnv1]

Peretz will not be running at all this time. I think he was an MK since 1988 and with most seniority in the house. Not sure who’s the most senior now, maybe Hanegbi

[CumbrianLefty]

Labor - 1.1%

Its all just a bit sad now.

[Hnv1]

who are you 2.7% who want to vote for Zalicha? the glorified accountant with too much ego?

Smotric seems to be really heading for a split from Yamina. I'm sure Khanists will join. Interestingly the split is on social issues. Smotric wants a government with Haredi, he wants more conservative laws, campaigns against LGBT, etc. What NOAM went for last time has a strong appeal with Hardal voters.

He will recommend Bibi, but his focus will be on conservative issues.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

They arn't, Likud is a Party of Power. The play seems to be that the anti-Authoritarian Conservatives of Lincoln are naturally at home with a Conservative seeking to stop creeping authoritarianism. I assume they are going adjust their tactics to the environment, similar to Bibi and McLaughlin previously.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

You ever saw their ads? low and shallow, cheap shots, and blaming everyone on being a radical leftist arab lover. plus the electorate is by definition populist

[Velasco]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

You ever saw their ads? low and shallow, cheap shots, and blaming everyone on being a radical leftist arab lover. plus the electorate is by definition populist

I don't know what is a "populist voter", but I think one of the defining features of rightwing populism is the search for enemies. Donald Trump and your crazed criminal rightwingers cannot exist without enemies: either internal or external, real or imaginary.  So yes, Likud and other parties (nearly all the parliamentary forces, actually) are in that brand of populism

[CumbrianLefty]

Without too going off topic, there was a classic example of this here at the weekend - with the Tories saying that they will "defend" historic statues against <sic> "crazed mobs".

Its not as if they have nothing else to occupy their time right now, after all......

[America Needs R'hllor]

As expected, Shmuli and Barak not running for Labour leader. The road is paved for Merav Michaeli's ascension- I'd be surprised if she gets less than 90% of the vote. The only ones running against her are some casino businessman who Peretz apparently recruited to allow him to control the party, and some weirdo perennial candidate who forgot to vote for himself last time.

Gotta respect Michaeli. This woman clawed her way through a ton of resistance. She's likely to be the last Labour leader, though

[PSOL]

How are the relations between Meretz and Joint List, both before and now what with Ra’am disaffiliating? Are there even voter blocs that these lists even compete for competitively? Out of the few Jewish voters in JL (or just Maki), how do they differ from the predominantly Jewish voter base for Meretz?

Exactly why did the previous split in Yamina happen? Honestly, a better question is what exactly divides non-sephardi Hasidics/Haredim? Are the current parties not merging due to ideological differences or due to the parties being personality outfits?

[Hnv1]

Channel 12 poll
Likud 30
Saar 15
YA 14
Yamina 13
JL 10
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Meretz 6
B&W 5
Huldai 4

——————————————
Zalicha 2.4% (who are these people?)
Smotric 1.9%
Labour 1.6%
Gesher 0.7%
JH 0.6%
Jewish Power 0.5%
Senior Citizens 0.5%
Telem 0.4%
Shelah 0.4%


Smotric’s gal won the JH primaries yesterday over Bennett’s pal so I guess now Smotric will unite his party with JH and Ben Gvir. One step closer for him to take over the national religious movement.

Huldai is on the edge. He will have to join forces with Labour and Zalicha (and possibly Shelah but he can do without him). Meretz are planning on running alone. Gesher will join Likud.

From a legal point of view it’s pivotal Gantz remains an MK.

[Coldstream]

Channel 12 poll
Likud 30
Saar 15
YA 14
Yamina 13
JL 10
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Meretz 6
B&W 5
Huldai 4

——————————————
Zalicha 2.4% (who are these people?)
Smotric 1.9%
Labour 1.6%
Gesher 0.7%
JH 0.6%
Jewish Power 0.5%
Senior Citizens 0.5%
Telem 0.4%
Shelah 0.4%


Smotric’s gal won the JH primaries yesterday over Bennett’s pal so I guess now Smotric will unite his party with JH and Ben Gvir. One step closer for him to take over the national religious movement.

Huldai is on the edge. He will have to join forces with Labour and Zalicha (and possibly Shelah but he can do without him). Meretz are planning on running alone. Gesher will join Likud.

From a legal point of view it’s pivotal Gantz remains an MK.

I realise Otzma may not have much of a choice, but given they got screwed out of Knesset seats in April 2019 are they going to be that eager to get back in to bed with Jewish Home and Tkuma?

[Hnv1]

Channel 12 poll
Likud 30
Saar 15
YA 14
Yamina 13
JL 10
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Meretz 6
B&W 5
Huldai 4

——————————————
Zalicha 2.4% (who are these people?)
Smotric 1.9%
Labour 1.6%
Gesher 0.7%
JH 0.6%
Jewish Power 0.5%
Senior Citizens 0.5%
Telem 0.4%
Shelah 0.4%


Smotric’s gal won the JH primaries yesterday over Bennett’s pal so I guess now Smotric will unite his party with JH and Ben Gvir. One step closer for him to take over the national religious movement.

Huldai is on the edge. He will have to join forces with Labour and Zalicha (and possibly Shelah but he can do without him). Meretz are planning on running alone. Gesher will join Likud.

From a legal point of view it’s pivotal Gantz remains an MK.

I realise Otzma may not have much of a choice, but given they got screwed out of Knesset seats in April 2019 are they going to be that eager to get back in to bed with Jewish Home and Tkuma?

No alternative, plus now there won’t be a need to accommodate JH people.