Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Eisenkot officially sits this one out. We might see him if there's a fifth-round but otherwise, I think he's cleverly avoiding the predictable mistake.

Polling from after Huldai's announcement shows his party of 8 seats, Meretz on 5, B&W on 4 close to the threshold. Likud are starting to get closer to the 25 mark. So far anti Bibi coalition is at least mathematically possible in all polls

[jaymichaud]

Eisenkot officially sits this one out. We might see him if there's a fifth-round but otherwise, I think he's cleverly avoiding the predictable mistake.

Polling from after Huldai's announcement shows his party of 8 seats, Meretz on 5, B&W on 4 close to the threshold. Likud are starting to get closer to the 25 mark. So far anti Bibi coalition is at least mathematically possible in all polls

Even if Likud can get Bennett back on board (Gantz, you’re no longer the biggest wimp to run for PM if this happens) that’s still only 53 seats. Very poor

[Hnv1]

Kann poll:
Likud - 28
Sa'ar - 18
Yamina - 14
Yesh Atid 13
JL 11
Huldai 8
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz - 4
B&W - 4

fit to be PM:
Bibi - 41%
Sa'ar - 33%

Sa'ar + Yamina + Huldai + B&W + YA + YB = 62
no need for JL or Meretz here

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Balfour now...

[Coldstream]

Kann poll:
Likud - 28
Sa'ar - 18
Yamina - 14
Yesh Atid 13
JL 11
Huldai 8
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz - 4
B&W - 4

fit to be PM:
Bibi - 41%
Sa'ar - 33%

Sa'ar + Yamina + Huldai + B&W + YA + YB = 62
no need for JL or Meretz here

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Balfour now...

Given what’s happened to Labour would Huldai be okay to get in to bed with Saar and Bennett? Or is the reason fir Gantz/Labor’s fall more attributable to opposition to Netanyahu himself than opposition to right wing politics? I ask because to an outsider Saar/Bennett seem to be more right wing than Netanyahu and further from Huldai (and his presumed base).

[CumbrianLefty]

Bennett has certainly presented themselves as to the right of Bibi until recently.

[Oryxslayer]

Kann poll:
Likud - 28
Sa'ar - 18
Yamina - 14
Yesh Atid 13
JL 11
Huldai 8
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz - 4
B&W - 4

fit to be PM:
Bibi - 41%
Sa'ar - 33%

Sa'ar + Yamina + Huldai + B&W + YA + YB = 62
no need for JL or Meretz here

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Balfour now...

Given what’s happened to Labour would Huldai be okay to get in to bed with Saar and Bennett? Or is the reason fir Gantz/Labor’s fall more attributable to opposition to Netanyahu himself than opposition to right wing politics? I ask because to an outsider Saar/Bennett seem to be more right wing than Netanyahu and further from Huldai (and his presumed base).

This election (at least as an outsider) appears to be the culmination of the past three votes. Each election eventually returned enough MKs to oppose a Likud government, but not enough to form a opposition one or crucially deny Likud from utilizing its political capital from seizing the dominant position post-election. Every govt needed to flow through Likud, even a Gantz led one, despite the voters opposing this. Given a bit of reflection time, the parties have realized that there is no Bibi heir, and the public wouldn't mind seeing him go. So, we get an election where there are more than enough candidates opposed to a Bibi govt for once, because those candidates may have the opportunity to take the reins.

So personally, I suspect its better from Huladi[s perspective to take the deal and roll the dice. This election is all about removing Bibi the hard way, so furthering that goal is a perfectly legitimate immediate goal. The political earth will immediately begin to shift if any anti-Bibi govt is formed - a good number of the MKs elected on the Likud ticket will probably immediately hop over to Sa'ar or Bennet for example. You always have the option of bringing down the govt after the immediate goal is satisfied and the resulting political upheavals make such a coalition unworkable.

[Mike88]

This scenario, literally impossible, was polled:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1344250385150701569

Still interesting, though.

[brucejoel99]

These polls have zero value. A new party was literally announced today. These polls are being conducted without even knowing the full extent of election participation.

[Hnv1]

These polls have zero value. A new party was literally announced today. These polls are being conducted without even knowing the full extent of election participation.

A meaningless party. And it doesn’t matter. It’s not how you cut the pie it’s how big it is. Right now looking good

[jaymichaud]

This scenario, literally impossible, was polled:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1344250385150701569

Still interesting, though.

Excluding Telem, that alliance seems more like the old Labor than anything else we've seen lately. Let's not forget that Meretz was only founded in 1992, and Alignment was very big tent had everyone ranging from left wing socialists to liberal centrists.

[Hnv1]

This scenario, literally impossible, was polled:

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1344250385150701569

Still interesting, though.

Excluding Telem, that alliance seems more like the old Labor than anything else we've seen lately. Let's not forget that Meretz was only founded in 1992, and Alignment was very big tent had everyone ranging from left wing socialists to liberal centrists.

There's an untenable gap there between Meretz and YA. Running Labour and Meretz together took a year and a massive crisis to bring forth, now imagine what it would it take to get YA and Meretz to join hands...
To the outside spectator, it might look meaningless, but there are demographic differences between the two. It starts from the newspapers they read, to the books they read, to the very outlook on family life, etc.

As to Telem...it's not really a party but Boogie is very much old Labour right Ahdut Havoda. they existed well into the late 90's with Kahalni and such.

By 1992 Labour hardly had real leftists left on the list, after Oslo Peres had a dovish faction in the party, and Peretz was there but he was more of a trade unionist than a socialist back then. The Alignment ceased to exist in 1984 and with MAPAM and Sarid gone most of the party's left was purged. Meretz was founded in 1990 (or 1996 depends on how you count it) but the parties forming it were by no means new, and even there you had the party's right. I remember the convention in the mid 90's where the Peace Now camp forced a notion against giving back East Jerusalem.
Labour wasn't a big tent in 1992, it had a small surge and Russians didn't assimilate to the right yet. that's it. and that coalition is hardly a big tent in Israel nowadays. like it or not Likud is the only big tent party in Israel having support from seculars to Haredi, from the economic right to the left, and from all major social groups.

Anyhow B&W was much more similar to old Labour than this merger, it also had that scent...

[Hnv1]

Weekend polls show B&W under the threshold. It’s not going to improve. Zalicha somehow got 2.5% in one poll, I can’t fathom why. Shelah is doing poorly with 0.4-0.8%. Huldai is on steady 8, Meretz on 4-5. Labour are doing even worse, Peretz can’t find someone who wants to lead the party.

Most of B&W MKs and Ministers left leaving Gantz with the more right inclined MKs and the stone cold fox Meriav Cohen. His spin doctors are trying to create paths to join either YA or Yamina (what a chimera of party this is). Not sure anyone would want him, and B&W might not compete in the end.

There’s going to have to be some mass merger of the micro parties of the left. Huldai can orchestrate it as he doesn’t have that many people he promises list spots yet. Livni isn’t coming back it seems.

Ashkenazi announced an ambiguous hiatus...we might still find him with Sa’ar in the last minute I feel. Or YA.

Boogie is surplus to requirement for everyone.

[palandio]

General question/theory, maybe a bit over-simplified:

Looking at the past election results you can get the feeling that there are loyal and swing voter blocs in Israel:

Loyal:
- The Arabs, not accounting for internal differences, turnout variations, etc.
- Ashkenazi Haredim
- After some variations in the past, the Shas voter bloc seems to be mostly stable now
- A national religious core at ca. 5%
- Lieberman after some ups and downs seems to have consolidated a loyal base
- Meretz seems to have a stable core ca. at the threshold
- Lapid seems to have a loyal base at 8-10%
- Labor had a base, but it is mostly gone by now
- Bibi seems to have a loyal base, but I'm not sure how to quantify it; Kulanu seems to have mostly been flesh-from-the-flesh of Likud and can probably be included here

Swing:
- There seems to be a right-wing swing bloc of up to 15% that often votes Likud, but occasionally flirts with Bennet and is now partially attracted to Saar
- There seems to be a center-to-left anti-Bibi swing bloc of up to 20% that at various times supported Livni, Herzog, Gantz and that is now divided between The Israelis, YA, the remainders of B&W and partially Saar(??) and up for grabs

What I find interesting is how Lapid has managed to consolidate a loyal base that if he wants can be merged with the anti-Bibi swing bloc without losses, but if he wants to go alone he can keep it without losses, too. That's pretty amazing.

[Hnv1]

District Court accepted Michaeli's petition and dictated Labour to have a membership primaries. interesting. There are still a lot of members, most didn't vote Labour last time, question is who will run beside her and maybe Shmuli and who would run for the list

[Hnv1]

backdoor deals in Meretz as usual. Primaries canceled the list will be:
1. Horowitz
2. Zandberg
3. Golan
4. Rinawi-Zoabi (a new figure, a female Arab who did work in local governance)
5. Freg

Former MK Gilon and leader of the red faction will not run this time, considering he nearly died of Covid I think it's safe to say he'll never run again. his faction controls the party but has no immediate figure to replace Gilon.

It still remains to be seen whether Meretz will run alone this time. could be.

[jaymichaud]

backdoor deals in Meretz as usual. Primaries canceled the list will be:
1. Horowitz
2. Zandberg
3. Golan
4. Rinawi-Zoabi (a new figure, a female Arab who did work in local governance)
5. Freg

Former MK Gilon and leader of the red faction will not run this time, considering he nearly died of Covid I think it's safe to say he'll never run again. his faction controls the party but has no immediate figure to replace Gilon.

It still remains to be seen whether Meretz will run alone this time. could be.

Related to Haneen?

[Hnv1]

backdoor deals in Meretz as usual. Primaries canceled the list will be:
1. Horowitz
2. Zandberg
3. Golan
4. Rinawi-Zoabi (a new figure, a female Arab who did work in local governance)
5. Freg

Former MK Gilon and leader of the red faction will not run this time, considering he nearly died of Covid I think it's safe to say he'll never run again. his faction controls the party but has no immediate figure to replace Gilon.

It still remains to be seen whether Meretz will run alone this time. could be.

Related to Haneen?

that's slightly dogwhistle in Hebrew...

Maybe fifth cousins or something, Zoabi is an enormous family in the Galilee, tens of thousands of people have that surname. They're both from Nazareth but not close kin

[jaymichaud]

Lapid and Ya'alon have officially parted ways. Right decision tbh, YA-T was a rump party and given the difference in ideology there really wasn't anything to keep them together.

Telem MKs are off to join YB or Sa'ar I assume?

[Hnv1]

Lapid and Ya'alon have officially parted ways. Right decision tbh, YA-T was a rump party and given the difference in ideology there really wasn't anything to keep them together.

Telem MKs are off to join YB or Sa'ar I assume?

By my count there are only 3 Telem MKs including Boogie and they don’t owe him anything.

[Hnv1]

Merav Cohen leaves B&W to YA. quite popular (and hot).

Gantz is currently the most powerful lame-duck in history. Defence Minister, Justice Minister, Communication and some other minor portfolios. Holds a veto power over government decisions and votes like several ministers. Has funding of a party with 18 members. and all of that with currently 4-7 MKs and half of that in the polls.
He also can't be sacked by Bibi.

Insane and unprecedented politically.

I can see why Yamina might swallow B&W atm.

[Oryxslayer]

YA and Telem part ways as expected.

[Hnv1]

YA and Telem part ways as expected.

Yaalon added former minister Shai from B&W and some obscure public health professor. I still doubt 1% of the voters would care. he's a nobody and I hope nobody keeps him politically alive.

Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Former politician Danny Yatom formed a senior citizens party with unbearable professor Assa Kasher. I get why millennials hate boomers now.

Still no sign of immersion between Huldai, shelah, Zalicha et al.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Isn't the thing about Labour that they have almost no voters left (even most of *their own members* support other parties now) but still significant assets?

I think the SDP of Japan is in a not totally dissimilar position.

[Hnv1]

Labour to hold primaries but currently, no one bar Michaeli announced their running. not even for the list. another dead man walking party.

Isn't the thing about Labour that they have almost no voters left (even most of *their own members* support other parties now) but still significant assets?

I think the SDP of Japan is in a not totally dissimilar position.

they have no voters. party financing of 3-4 million, and assets worth around 150-200 million that can't be liquified so quickly anyhow but you can get credit with them.

the most reasonable thing to do is for them and Meretz to run together and afterward unify the parties (Meretz have some assets as well inheireted from Mapam). There really isn't anymore room left for both. But Labour has too much pride about being the founders and Meretz too many egos

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm back (for this thread)! Certainly an interesting election we're getting.

My gut feeling is that left wing splintering will allow Bibi to get a slight majority (akin to right wing splintering denying it to him in 2019 round 1). But a Sa'ar-YB-YA-Yamina government with outside support from Meretz is not out of the question.

As for my vote, I'm currently leaning Meretz. Huldai's party holds no appeal to me, I think I'd actually vote Yesh Atid over them.