Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Probably around March 23

[Estrella]

You heard it here first - in late August December some mediocre centrist right-wing party surges in the polls and everyone gets all kinds of hopeful that Bibi is finally on the way out. Come election day, Likud wins outright and the right wins 70 90 seats.

May as well hold the bloody thing tomorrow.

[Hnv1]

You heard it here first - in late August December some mediocre centrist right-wing party surges in the polls and everyone gets all kinds of hopeful that Bibi is finally on the way out. Come election day, Likud wins outright and the right wins 70 90 seats.

May as well hold the bloody thing tomorrow.

Doubt it. It might have been true for Bennett, but Sa’ar is a big prick but he’s not going to seat under Bibi.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

[Hnv1]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

Another? The right bloc didn’t win outright since 2015. But yes if Bibi will be replaced it will probably be by Sa’ar from his right (but with a moderate coalition)

[brucejoel99]

Election #4! Give it up for Election #4!

[cp]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

Another? The right bloc didn’t win outright since 2015. But yes if Bibi will be replaced it will probably be by Sa’ar from his right (but with a moderate coalition)

What's the odds and/or procedure for Bibi being replaced? I imagine he's of a mind to stick around if he can.

[Hnv1]

Its going to be a(nother) right wing win tho, innit?

Another? The right bloc didn’t win outright since 2015. But yes if Bibi will be replaced it will probably be by Sa’ar from his right (but with a moderate coalition)

What's the odds and/or procedure for Bibi being replaced? I imagine he's of a mind to stick around if he can.

Clarify the question?
The basic procedure is as usual, if you have over 61 recommendations or simply the most the president gives you the mandate to form a government, you then have 45 days to reach an agreement with different parties and then need to win a simply confidence vote.
Currently it looks as if a Sa’ar Yamina YB YA B&W coalition might have a majority or at least the ability to swear in a government.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

a Sa’ar Yamina YB YA B&W coalition

oof

[jaichind]

How did it come to this.  Given B&W will get wiped out in another election would they not do everything possible to compromise and avoid an election ?

[Hnv1]

How did it come to this.  Given B&W will get wiped out in another election would they not do everything possible to compromise and avoid an election ?

Well they had little left to compromise on. The rotation was clearly not going to happen and Gantz had no ability to force any compromise on his MKs. He knows he’s done so at least he chose not to prolong his political death and being ridiculed daily. B&W was created to get Bibi out and defend the judicial system, any compromise on that would have been unacceptable.
His MKs will find new homes. Ashkenazi will be grumpy, Nissenkorn will probably end up elsewhere. Hell I’m not even sure B&W will take part next time.

[Estrella]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

[PSOL]

What’s happening with the Joint List? Is Ra’am going to run themselves or abstain from the election?

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

They are going to have primaries to kick Michaeli out.

As to the JL...unknown, Ra’am collaborated with Likud yesterday. They might run in 2 different lists.

This is the closest Israel has to snap elections as the Knesset usually dissolves with a law giving 4-5 months of campaigning. We have 90 days now. Lists need to be submitted in 45 days. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen real fast from now on

[PSOL]

F•••ing Islamists I swear to god.

[Velasco]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

[Former President tack50]

So that is how Israeli Labour goes away. Not with a bang but like this. RIP FF

[Hnv1]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

[Hnv1]

So that is how Israeli Labour goes away. Not with a bang but like this. RIP FF

FF? They dug their own graves. Picked terrible leaders since the 60’s and pissed against the wind. Shas and the settlers would have been nothing without them.

Goodbye and good riddance

[Velasco]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

It"s positive that people can learn lessons from past mistakes. The problem is that... well... the centre-left in Israel strikes to me as The Incredible Shrinking Man, let alone Labor. If I wanted to look on the bright side, I'd say something like "the present is dire but the future is an open book". Gantz would be on the centre-right in a normal country anyway

Regarding 3 Star generals, you had better men in the past

[Hnv1]

Leaving aside  war crimes in Gaza, Benny Gantz will go down in history as an useful idiot. Sad

Worse, his name will now mean being fooled like an idiot. Though we can look on the bright side, the centre-left will be suspicious of ex generals (3 stars) from now on. 3 of them are in the Knesset atm, 2.5 of them are complete morons.

It"s positive that people can learn lessons from past mistakes. The problem is that... well... the centre-left in Israel strikes to me as The Incredible Shrinking Man, let alone Labor. If I wanted to look on the bright side, I'd say something like "the present is dire but the future is an open book". Gantz would be on the centre-right in a normal country anyway

Regarding 3 Star generals, you had better men in the past

The centre left has actually grown a bit in 2019-20. The Zionist left is indeed dying, but that’s not necessarily bad, new alternative will come about only will let the ghosts of Mapai stop haunting us.

Gantz is actually very old school Labour, the real semi hawkish not sophisticated labour. Shelly and Michaeli were the LINOs

As to former CoGS, part for Rabin all that ventured into politics were a massive failure. And so many failures in a short time span is too much for the centre left, that’s why Eisenkot isn’t that hot in the market now.

[Mike88]

This is going to end up with another election in September, isn't it?

[jaymichaud]

Lol good. The 35th government was totally illegitimate.

[Vosem]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

[Hnv1]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

Not sure. I’ll doubt they’ll run alone considering how unpopular Peretz is. Shmuli might jump ship. They might run win Meretz (with a shotgun wedding) or with B&W if they run at all. Or they will run with the new Holdai party.

Is there really going to be a Huldai party? I feel like there's been speculation about this for the last two decades and it's never happened. Why would Huldai run now that he's 76 and probably wouldn't be a prime ministerial contender, which he could have been in the past?

Well firstly because he said he’ll run a few days ago. So I guess that’s happening.
Secondly he rightly senses that there is a sentiment right now of people looking for good managers regardless of left and right post Covid. Honestly he’s the best managerial type the left has to offer.

Even if he doesn’t propel himself to the top he’ll get a ministerial position. And after 22 years as mayor it might look an interesting change for him