Rate Michigan for 2022

[VAR]

?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

[Frenchrepublican]

Voted Tossup/Tilt D

Whitmer will have the advantage of the incumbency and has a loyal base of voters, besides Michigan is structurally more democratic than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, but at the same time she is polarising and her crossover appeal will be limited, add to the the fact that the climate will likely be unfavourable to her party, so Tossup.

[Chips]

Voted Tossup/Tilt D

Whitmer will have the advantage of the incumbency and has a loyal base of voters, besides Michigan is structurally more democratic than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, but at the same time she is polarising and her crossover appeal will be limited, add to the the fact that the climate will likely be unfavourable to her party, so Tossup.

[Neptunium]

Lean R this state would be target by GOP, and 2022 would be red wave.

[Illiniwek]

Lean D. Michigan is very vulnerable for Democrats moving forward, and 2022 is likely going to be a pro-GOP environment. But Gretchen Whitmer is a popular governor. There is a very vocal, and apparently violent, minority that hates her for her actions to stop the spread of COVID. But the clear majority of the state supports her. In 2022 we should be well removed from this year that even the negativity surrounding her COVID policies will die down. She will be the favorite to be reelected.

[Xing]

Toss-Up. People seem to be pretty divided on Whitmer, and Democrats don’t always do so well in Democratic midterms in Michigan.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup/Tilt R. People really seem to dislike her for some reason, plus the polarization in this country is asymmetric.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's will win MI

[Chips]

Toss-up.

[ShadowRocket]

Toss-Up/Tilt D.  Whitmer is polarizing but at the same time I'm not seeing a strong GOP challenger at the moment.  Gun to my head, she pulls it off but by a narrower margin than in '18.

[libertpaulian]

Tossup.  Whitmer is slightly favored due to her solid COVID response, though.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Lean D. Whitmer will lose #populist Saginaw and Muskegon but win #coastalelitist Kent and Oakland.

[Red Wall]

Lean R. Whitmer pissed a lot of small businesses owners and they will campaign hard against her. Pritzker, Cuomo and Newsom aka lockdown gang will underperform but still win because they are from safe states. Whitmer followed them but for her an underperformance on a R year = a loss.

[President Johnson]

Depends on the challenger, but right now Lean Democratic. Whitmer should be favored, but she's not safe by any means.

[UncleSam]

Lean R. There is a deep, visceral hatred for her amongst lots of typically apolitical types due to all the COVID lockdowns, and I doubt people just forgive and forget that by 2022. Rs need to find a decent candidate and given their proclivity for nominating crazy people Whitmer definitely still has a shot, but if they nominate I.e. James or Meijer or coax someone like Engler back then she’s toast.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up/Tilt D to start. She sure as hell isn't getting close to the 10 point margin she got in 2018, but I think the Republicans somewhat overestimate themselves when they really hate the person they're running against, and their bench in Michigan is lackluster outside a few people.

Tossup.  Whitmer is slightly favored due to her solid COVID response, though.

At some point you should drop the libertarian avatar if you're going to say something like that. Just my opinion, as a libertarian-leaning person myself I don't know how any libertarian could praise her blatantly authoritarian covid policies.

[VAR]

Lean R. There is a deep, visceral hatred for her amongst lots of typically apolitical types due to all the COVID lockdowns, and I doubt people just forgive and forget that by 2022. Rs need to find a decent candidate and given their proclivity for nominating crazy people Whitmer definitely still has a shot, but if they nominate I.e. James or Meijer or coax someone like Engler back then she’s toast.

Whitmer is very vulnerable, but I don't think she's a clear underdog - at least yet. Michigan still trended D this year, and while I expect it to trend R in 2022/2024, Whitmer won't be that easy to dislodge, as she is very popular among Democrats.

Off-topic, but have you ever thought about getting an avatar? You're a very knowledgeable poster (esp. about elections/trends), but I really feel like your informative posts go unnoticed because you don't have an avatar. It's super easy to make one - you just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and pick your political party (pick Independent or Other if you don't have one) and your state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup to lean D, depending on Whitmer's opponent. I guess I'll split the difference and go with tilt D.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt R. Polarizing incumbent running in what will likely be a GOP wave environment in the Midwest -> more likely than not to lose.

[UncleSam]

Lean R. There is a deep, visceral hatred for her amongst lots of typically apolitical types due to all the COVID lockdowns, and I doubt people just forgive and forget that by 2022. Rs need to find a decent candidate and given their proclivity for nominating crazy people Whitmer definitely still has a shot, but if they nominate I.e. James or Meijer or coax someone like Engler back then she’s toast.

Whitmer is very vulnerable, but I don't think she's a clear underdog - at least yet. Michigan still trended D this year, and while I expect it to trend R in 2022/2024, Whitmer won't be that easy to dislodge, as she is very popular among Democrats.

Off-topic, but have you ever thought about getting an avatar? You're a very knowledgeable poster (esp. about elections/trends), but I really feel like your informative posts go unnoticed because you don't have an avatar. It's super easy to make one - you just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and pick your political party (pick Independent or Other if you don't have one) and your state.

Ty

[mikhaela]

Steven Crowder in?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I'll be bold and say lean R.

[Xing]

Pretty much a pure Toss-Up.