2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: West Virginia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this is the only state left without a thread.
WV is pretty much certain to lose a seat in 2020.

[TML]

In this state the deck is stacked heavily in favor of Republicans against Democrats. Under the three-district configuration, 538 wasn’t able to create any districts where Democrats had a legitimate shot of winning, and this would be even more so under a two-district configuration.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Looking like Mooney will have to run for Senate in 2024 but I think Jenkins edges him out

[Stuart98]

One of the least interesting states for redistricting. Two things are basically all but certain:

1. Both of WV's districts are going to be titanium R.
2. Alex Mooney is going to be elected in neither of them.

[Former President tack50]

Since it might be slightly more interesting than the Congressional map, here is a hypothetical fair State Senate map (apparently WV uses State Senate districts that elect 2 people?)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/13a6916b-d405-46f0-b8bb-e404a422e354



Needless to say, these are all Safe R based off presidential results; with the possible exception of district 10 (Charleston) which might be ""only"" Likely R (though even that one has a PVI of R+5). Though I imagine district 4 (Monongalia) and 7 (Jefferson & a small part of Berkeley) would be competitive too. After all Monongalia came very close to flipping in 2020.

Since WV is one of the places where Dems can still win in ancestral areas, I will note that even Obama in 2008 only managed to win those 3 districts, and none of them by particularly large margins (Best being the Charleston district at Obama+6)

The median district should be district 13 (Harrison, Lewis & Upshur Counties); which has a 2012-2016 composite of 70% R-30% D and a PVI of R+22. (and was McCain+20 back in 2008)

To be honest if WV has big restrictions on county splits, I imagine Republicans probably will have to concede at least 2 competitive districts in Monongalia and Jefferson. They might be able to crack Charleston though.

If WV has no restrictions on county splits thoough, Republicans could easily go for an all safe seats map, even with Obama 08 numbers

[Alcibiades]

Since it might be slightly more interesting than the Congressional map, here is a hypothetical fair State Senate map (apparently WV uses State Senate districts that elect 2 people?)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/13a6916b-d405-46f0-b8bb-e404a422e354



Needless to say, these are all Safe R based off presidential results; with the possible exception of district 10 (Charleston) which might be ""only"" Likely R (though even that one has a PVI of R+5). Though I imagine district 4 (Monongalia) and 7 (Jefferson & a small part of Berkeley) would be competitive too. After all Monongalia came very close to flipping in 2020.

Since WV is one of the places where Dems can still win in ancestral areas, I will note that even Obama in 2008 only managed to win those 3 districts, and none of them by particularly large margins (Best being the Charleston district at Obama+6)

The median district should be district 13 (Harrison, Lewis & Upshur Counties); which has a 2012-2016 composite of 70% R-30% D and a PVI of R+22. (and was McCain+20 back in 2008)

To be honest if WV has big restrictions on county splits, I imagine Republicans probably will have to concede at least 2 competitive districts in Monongalia and Jefferson. They might be able to crack Charleston though.

If WV has no restrictions on county splits thoough, Republicans could easily go for an all safe seats map, even with Obama 08 numbers

The problem with trying to draw a gerrymander is that WV has recently had very erratic political geography outside of presidential races. If you look at recent Dem victories or near-victories (Justice in 2016, Manchin in 2018, Perdue in 2016 and 2020), they all look quite different, so I think it’s quite hard to predict where Dems might be able to do well at the state legislative level. Of course, at this stage it’s more of a question of how big the Republican majority is.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So West Virginia is set to loose a Congressional seat (most likely) which means someone's gotta give. Currently the state has;

• David McKinley [R] of Wheeling in the 1st District. Incumbent since 2011 and one of the few remaining members of congress with facial hair. (Interestingly his district has been the same since 2003)
• Alex Mooney [R] of Charles Towne in the 2nd District. Incumbent since 2015 and former chair of the Maryland Republican Party and member of the Maryland Senate.
• Carol Miller [R] of Huntington in the soon to be defunct 3rd District. Incumbent since 2019 making her the most junior, despite being the oldest freshman in 2018. She may be most famous for beating # Populist Richard Ojeda.

Had Richard Ojeda won against Miller it would've made the redistricting easier, just draw him out. Now someone is either going to have to retire or face off against each other. There are compelling arguments to be made for each to be drawn out. McKinley is the only native, but the oldest in seniority and age. Mooney is quite literally a carpetbagger from a Blue state, but could still have a future in the state. Miller was the only female republican freshman in 2018, but she's 70 and last hired, so she could be first fired.

My first thought is draw it the simplest and easiest. Divide up Mooney's snakey district and draw it North/South, making Mooney run against either McKinley or Miller should neither retire. Both these maps have districts ranging from R+18 to R+21, with the northern one being more "Democratic". These are also the "least changed" map.

Option A

This one would also work for if McKinley retired, giving Mooney the northern one.

Option B


The Second main alternative is Splitting up Miller, which would also require breaking up Mooney's old District some and the 1st and 3rd do not border each other.

Option C


This map just narrowly draw Miller into McKinley's new district, while also preserving most of his borders to the east. However in actualality it draw out more of Mooney's then Miller's and she could declare residency in say Charleston and run here and could win as most her base is here.



This one is the most different, with both districts taking parts from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, but is the most effective for trying to draw out Miller. It gives some of McKinley's eastern counties to Mooney, while giving half of Miller's district to McKinley and half to Mooney. This would also work for a map if Mooney were to retire, drawing Miller into an "Ohio River Basin" sorta map.  This has the smallest population deviation of just 9.



This is building off the previous idea, keeping Miller with most of her base should McKinley retire, and splitting his district between her and Mooney, while also keeping Mooney in his base.

I have no idea which would be best for the state, it's effectively just which representative draws the short straw. The easiest geographically would be to draw out Mooney, while I personally think the most likely is Miller gets the boot. McKinley decide to make it easier on them and retire, or so could Miller. It really could be any of them.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I like this map.

[Alcibiades]

I think Mooney’s going to get drawn out - not only is he a carpetbagger and his district’s central location makes it the most logical to get chopped from a geographical perspective, but he has a history of embarrassing underperformances: he only won 49-47 in his first election in 2014, did 21 points worse worse than Trump in his district in 2016, his district was actually closer than WV-03 with Ojeda’s fames #populist campaign in 2018, and this year, despite cracking 60% for the first ever time, he still underperformed Trump by 6 points.

Mooney is a liability, rather than an asset, to his state party.

[MaxQue]

I think Mooney’s going to get drawn out - not only is he a carpetbagger and his district’s central location makes it the most logical to get chopped from a geographical perspective, but he has a history of embarrassing underperformances: he only won 49-47 in his first election in 2014, did 21 points worse worse than Trump in his district in 2016, his district was actually closer than WV-03 with Ojeda’s fames #populist campaign in 2018, and this year, despite cracking 60% for the first ever time, he still underperformed Trump by 6 points.

Mooney is a liability, rather than an asset, to his state party.

His weakness also means that, if someone else is cut, he could lose the primary to that person.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Interesting side note; Mooney’s cousin is currently Mayor of Miami. Maybe he can run for something down there if drawn out

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Jefferson (56,179) 3-seater; quota 54,873
2. Berkeley (113,495) 6-seater; quota 109,746
3. Morgan (17,624) 1-seater; quota 18,291
4. Hampshire-Hardy (37,205) 2-seater; quota 36,582
5. Mineral-Grant-Tucker-Pendleton (53,002) 3-seater; quota 54,873
6. Randolph-Pocahontas (37,596) 2-seater; quota 36,582
7. Marion-West Monongalia (107,411) 6-seater; quota 109,746
8. East Monongalia-Preston (88,175) 5-seater; quota 91,455
9. Taylor-Barbour-Upshur-Lewis (74,562) 4-seater; quota 73,164
10. Harrison-Doddridge (76,745) 4-seater; quota 73,164
11. Hancock-Brooke (52,452) 3-seater; quota 54,873
12. Ohio-Marshall (74,192) 4-seater; quota 73,164
13. Wetzel-Tyler-Ritchie-Wirt-Gilmer-Calhoun (55,853) 3-seater; quota 54,873
14. Pleasants-Wood (93,063) 5-seater; quota 91,455
15. Jackson-Mason (55,957) 3-seater; quota 54,873
16. Roane-Clay-Braxton (37,272) 2-seater; quota 36,582
17. Webster-Greenbrier-East Nicholas (56,420) 3-seater; quota 54,873
18. Fayette-West Nicholas(56,895) 3-seater; quota 54,873
19. Monroe-Summers-Mercer (86,971) 5-seater; quota 91,455
20. Raleigh (71,420) 4-seater; quota 73,164
21. Putnam (56,652) 3-seater; quota 54,873
22. Cabell (95,318) 5-seater; quota 91,455
23. North Kanawha (106,073) 6-seater; quota 109,746
24. South Kanawha-Boone-Lincoln (122,749) 7-seater; quota 128,037
25. McDowell (19,217) 1-seater; quota 18,291
26. Wyoming-Logan (55,512) 3-seater; quota 54,873
27. Wayne-Mingo (71,044) 4-seater; quota 73,164

WV house of delegates map based off 2018 population estimates.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5dbae1e1-2420-4eeb-b464-04a0b513efe0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

1. Jefferson (56,179) 3-seater; quota 54,873
2. Berkeley (113,495) 6-seater; quota 109,746
3. Morgan (17,624) 1-seater; quota 18,291
4. Hampshire-Hardy (37,205) 2-seater; quota 36,582
5. Mineral-Grant-Tucker-Pendleton (53,002) 3-seater; quota 54,873
6. Randolph-Pocahontas (37,596) 2-seater; quota 36,582
7. Marion-West Monongalia (107,411) 6-seater; quota 109,746
8. East Monongalia-Preston (88,175) 5-seater; quota 91,455
9. Taylor-Barbour-Upshur-Lewis (74,562) 4-seater; quota 73,164
10. Harrison-Doddridge (76,745) 4-seater; quota 73,164
11. Hancock-Brooke (52,452) 3-seater; quota 54,873
12. Ohio-Marshall (74,192) 4-seater; quota 73,164
13. Wetzel-Tyler-Ritchie-Wirt-Gilmer-Calhoun (55,853) 3-seater; quota 54,873
14. Pleasants-Wood (93,063) 5-seater; quota 91,455
15. Jackson-Mason (55,957) 3-seater; quota 54,873
16. Roane-Clay-Braxton (37,272) 2-seater; quota 36,582
17. Webster-Greenbrier-East Nicholas (56,420) 3-seater; quota 54,873
18. Fayette-West Nicholas(56,895) 3-seater; quota 54,873
19. Monroe-Summers-Mercer (86,971) 5-seater; quota 91,455
20. Raleigh (71,420) 4-seater; quota 73,164
21. Putnam (56,652) 3-seater; quota 54,873
22. Cabell (95,318) 5-seater; quota 91,455
23. North Kanawha (106,073) 6-seater; quota 109,746
24. South Kanawha-Boone-Lincoln (122,749) 7-seater; quota 128,037
25. McDowell (19,217) 1-seater; quota 18,291
26. Wyoming-Logan (55,512) 3-seater; quota 54,873
27. Wayne-Mingo (71,044) 4-seater; quota 73,164

WV house of delegates map based off 2018 population estimates.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5dbae1e1-2420-4eeb-b464-04a0b513efe0

West Virginia amended state law to abolish Multi-Member House Districts in 2018. The House now must be elected from 100 seperate single-member districts.

[Frodo]

1. Jefferson (56,179) 3-seater; quota 54,873
2. Berkeley (113,495) 6-seater; quota 109,746
3. Morgan (17,624) 1-seater; quota 18,291
4. Hampshire-Hardy (37,205) 2-seater; quota 36,582
5. Mineral-Grant-Tucker-Pendleton (53,002) 3-seater; quota 54,873
6. Randolph-Pocahontas (37,596) 2-seater; quota 36,582
7. Marion-West Monongalia (107,411) 6-seater; quota 109,746
8. East Monongalia-Preston (88,175) 5-seater; quota 91,455
9. Taylor-Barbour-Upshur-Lewis (74,562) 4-seater; quota 73,164
10. Harrison-Doddridge (76,745) 4-seater; quota 73,164
11. Hancock-Brooke (52,452) 3-seater; quota 54,873
12. Ohio-Marshall (74,192) 4-seater; quota 73,164
13. Wetzel-Tyler-Ritchie-Wirt-Gilmer-Calhoun (55,853) 3-seater; quota 54,873
14. Pleasants-Wood (93,063) 5-seater; quota 91,455
15. Jackson-Mason (55,957) 3-seater; quota 54,873
16. Roane-Clay-Braxton (37,272) 2-seater; quota 36,582
17. Webster-Greenbrier-East Nicholas (56,420) 3-seater; quota 54,873
18. Fayette-West Nicholas(56,895) 3-seater; quota 54,873
19. Monroe-Summers-Mercer (86,971) 5-seater; quota 91,455
20. Raleigh (71,420) 4-seater; quota 73,164
21. Putnam (56,652) 3-seater; quota 54,873
22. Cabell (95,318) 5-seater; quota 91,455
23. North Kanawha (106,073) 6-seater; quota 109,746
24. South Kanawha-Boone-Lincoln (122,749) 7-seater; quota 128,037
25. McDowell (19,217) 1-seater; quota 18,291
26. Wyoming-Logan (55,512) 3-seater; quota 54,873
27. Wayne-Mingo (71,044) 4-seater; quota 73,164

WV house of delegates map based off 2018 population estimates.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5dbae1e1-2420-4eeb-b464-04a0b513efe0

Can we have a partisan breakdown?  I assume this is a Republican gerrymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Jefferson (56,179) 3-seater; quota 54,873
2. Berkeley (113,495) 6-seater; quota 109,746
3. Morgan (17,624) 1-seater; quota 18,291
4. Hampshire-Hardy (37,205) 2-seater; quota 36,582
5. Mineral-Grant-Tucker-Pendleton (53,002) 3-seater; quota 54,873
6. Randolph-Pocahontas (37,596) 2-seater; quota 36,582
7. Marion-West Monongalia (107,411) 6-seater; quota 109,746
8. East Monongalia-Preston (88,175) 5-seater; quota 91,455
9. Taylor-Barbour-Upshur-Lewis (74,562) 4-seater; quota 73,164
10. Harrison-Doddridge (76,745) 4-seater; quota 73,164
11. Hancock-Brooke (52,452) 3-seater; quota 54,873
12. Ohio-Marshall (74,192) 4-seater; quota 73,164
13. Wetzel-Tyler-Ritchie-Wirt-Gilmer-Calhoun (55,853) 3-seater; quota 54,873
14. Pleasants-Wood (93,063) 5-seater; quota 91,455
15. Jackson-Mason (55,957) 3-seater; quota 54,873
16. Roane-Clay-Braxton (37,272) 2-seater; quota 36,582
17. Webster-Greenbrier-East Nicholas (56,420) 3-seater; quota 54,873
18. Fayette-West Nicholas(56,895) 3-seater; quota 54,873
19. Monroe-Summers-Mercer (86,971) 5-seater; quota 91,455
20. Raleigh (71,420) 4-seater; quota 73,164
21. Putnam (56,652) 3-seater; quota 54,873
22. Cabell (95,318) 5-seater; quota 91,455
23. North Kanawha (106,073) 6-seater; quota 109,746
24. South Kanawha-Boone-Lincoln (122,749) 7-seater; quota 128,037
25. McDowell (19,217) 1-seater; quota 18,291
26. Wyoming-Logan (55,512) 3-seater; quota 54,873
27. Wayne-Mingo (71,044) 4-seater; quota 73,164

WV house of delegates map based off 2018 population estimates.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5dbae1e1-2420-4eeb-b464-04a0b513efe0

Can we have a partisan breakdown?  I assume this is a Republican gerrymander.

It was not drawn to be a gerrymander for either party. My sole focus was on county-based constituencies, dividing counties compactly and along natural boundaries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. Jefferson (56,179) 3-seater; quota 54,873
2. Berkeley (113,495) 6-seater; quota 109,746
3. Morgan (17,624) 1-seater; quota 18,291
4. Hampshire-Hardy (37,205) 2-seater; quota 36,582
5. Mineral-Grant-Tucker-Pendleton (53,002) 3-seater; quota 54,873
6. Randolph-Pocahontas (37,596) 2-seater; quota 36,582
7. Marion-West Monongalia (107,411) 6-seater; quota 109,746
8. East Monongalia-Preston (88,175) 5-seater; quota 91,455
9. Taylor-Barbour-Upshur-Lewis (74,562) 4-seater; quota 73,164
10. Harrison-Doddridge (76,745) 4-seater; quota 73,164
11. Hancock-Brooke (52,452) 3-seater; quota 54,873
12. Ohio-Marshall (74,192) 4-seater; quota 73,164
13. Wetzel-Tyler-Ritchie-Wirt-Gilmer-Calhoun (55,853) 3-seater; quota 54,873
14. Pleasants-Wood (93,063) 5-seater; quota 91,455
15. Jackson-Mason (55,957) 3-seater; quota 54,873
16. Roane-Clay-Braxton (37,272) 2-seater; quota 36,582
17. Webster-Greenbrier-East Nicholas (56,420) 3-seater; quota 54,873
18. Fayette-West Nicholas(56,895) 3-seater; quota 54,873
19. Monroe-Summers-Mercer (86,971) 5-seater; quota 91,455
20. Raleigh (71,420) 4-seater; quota 73,164
21. Putnam (56,652) 3-seater; quota 54,873
22. Cabell (95,318) 5-seater; quota 91,455
23. North Kanawha (106,073) 6-seater; quota 109,746
24. South Kanawha-Boone-Lincoln (122,749) 7-seater; quota 128,037
25. McDowell (19,217) 1-seater; quota 18,291
26. Wyoming-Logan (55,512) 3-seater; quota 54,873
27. Wayne-Mingo (71,044) 4-seater; quota 73,164

WV house of delegates map based off 2018 population estimates.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5dbae1e1-2420-4eeb-b464-04a0b513efe0

West Virginia amended state law to abolish Multi-Member House Districts in 2018. The House now must be elected from 100 seperate single-member districts.

In which case this can work out to be groupings of counties which share a given number of districts.

[Schiff for Senate]

Personally I'm inclined to say a northern/southern split is both more likely and more politically and geographically sensible, though an eastern-western split will likely have very interesting results as both districts will change signficantly from how they are now. Either way the 2022 GOP primaries should be interesting - a battle between 2 incumbents.

[Alcibiades]

North-South, because the ally-less serial underperformer Mooney will get cut out.

[TML]

Because WV apparently doesn't allow splitting counties, it would appear that the dividing line would probably follow the dividing line between the northern and southern federal judicial districts (which is generally a NW-SE line), with the exception of Greenbrier and Monroe counties being in the northern district instead of the southern district in order to keep the population difference between the two districts under 1000.

[Nyvin]

Northeast-Southwest.    The southern part of WV-1 in this does work if you look at the mountain valley area there.  It's generally the southwest that's most affected by things like Opiod addition and stuff like that too.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/8028e781-b873-4b99-8768-eb282406d989

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I quite like this map.

[Ethelberth]

Obviously you shoud make one Ohio-Valley district and one Pure Appalachia district.

[Meatball Ron]

Would be interested to see the least Republican district someone is able to make...ignore COIs, county splits, and aesthetics; can be as ugly as possible as long as the districts are contiguous and within .75% population deviation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would be interested to see the least Republican district someone is able to make...ignore COIs, county splits, and aesthetics; can be as ugly as possible as long as the districts are contiguous and within .75% population deviation.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/351c1e26-f374-44e5-a908-43a897d06a98
is this a good attempt?

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair (?) 2-district map of West Virginia.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

--/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
--/100 on the Compactness Index
--/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (lol)
--/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (lol)

Other indicators won't show up, you could probably guess them though lol

The map above shows results from the 2012/2016 Presidential Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

Basically Anything: 2R


Opinions?