Bush v. Dean in 2004

[revas]

What if Howard Dean had eventuallay won the Democratic nomination in 2004 ?

Bush would have won by a landslide (winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Oregon) ?

Or would have he been a better and more exiting candidate for dems than Kerry ?

I presume he would have been totally out of touch with MidWest voters, but ain't sure...

[© tweed]

A Dukakis-type defeat for Dean.



Bush/Cheney 356 EV's, 54% PV
Dean/Feingold 182 EV's, 45% PV

[Alcon]

Welcome to the forum.  Believe it or not, you're our second French Republican.

[nini2287]

Bush/Cheney 50% 274 EV
Dean/Edwards 49% 264 EV

Kerry is every bit as liberal as Dean is and perhaps more so.  Dean is honest about his liberalism and wouldn't have come across as a flipflopper (and wouldn't make similar gaffes).

[adam]

Howard Dean's charisma and appeal to youth would spike voter turnout among the younger generation. This would cause many swing states to turn over, including an upset in Missouri.

Dean/Edwards - 50% - 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney - 48% - 268 EVs
Other - 2%

EDIT: I don't know how this map got so screwed up.

[ATFFL]

The youth vote he kept relying on never turned out for him in the primaries.  It would not have in the general.

[adam]

The youth vote he kept relying on never turned out for him in the primaries.  It would not have in the general.

Most people under the age of 25 don't vote in the primaries regardless of who the candidates are. Candidates are often chosen by political junkies and party loyalists who really take an intrest in who their party runs.

[revas]

Welcome to the forum.  Believe it or not, you're our second French Republican.

Well, we are a bit like Pandas in China, except that the WWF doesn't give a damn about us... maybe we don't look cute enough  ;-)

I wonder if Dean could have done better than Kerry in West Virginia. As the latter lost by 13 points it's very unlikely that any democratic candidate could have won this state, but I think it was the only red state where Dean would have been better than Kerry.

[jokerman]

Howard Dean's charisma

Charisma?  You've got to be joking.

I remember seeing him on Dave Letterman one night; he was horrible, completely unaffable.

[© tweed]

Howard Dean's charisma and appeal to youth would spike voter turnout among the younger generation. This would cause many swing states to turn over, including an upset in Missouri.

Dean/Edwards - 50% - 275 EVs
Bush/Cheney - 48% - 263EVs
Other - 2%

The red states don't add up to 275

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The House chooses Bush after some funny sh**t in Ohio.

[True Democrat]

[adam]

The red states don't add up to 275

See above, my map got major jacked up.

Charisma?  You've got to be joking.

I remember seeing him on Dave Letterman one night; he was horrible, completely unaffable.

Well, he can't be charismatic 100% of the time. One bad interview doesn't change the fact that he was the most intresting Democrat on the table for the party. John Edwards' charisma was fake, Al Sharpton's was...odd, no one else really had any.

[Downwinder]

Dean energizes the northeast and west coast, and also does very well in the midwest.  Appeals to a libertarian streak in the west, winning the election with Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Dean, 278 EV, 51% PV
Bush, 260 EV, 48% PV

[MasterJedi]

Howard Dean's charisma and appeal to youth would spike voter turnout among the younger generation. This would cause many swing states to turn over, including an upset in Missouri.

Dean/Edwards - 50% - 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney - 48% - 268 EVs
Other - 2%

EDIT: I don't know how this map got so screwed up.

Oh God, not you too thinking that Dean would have won!

[Soaring Eagle]

It depends. If in this alternate reality, Howard Dean screams after losing at Iowa, he would not win. If he does not make that mistake, then he does win. His credibility took a serious hit when he did that.

[adam]

Howard Dean's charisma and appeal to youth would spike voter turnout among the younger generation. This would cause many swing states to turn over, including an upset in Missouri.

Dean/Edwards - 50% - 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney - 48% - 268 EVs
Other - 2%

EDIT: I don't know how this map got so screwed up.

Oh God, not you too thinking that Dean would have won!

Never underestimate the apathy vote. How else do you think Ross Perot of all people could have at one point held 45% in a three way race?

[Lincoln Republican]

Bush defeats Dean by a much  more comfortable margin than by which he defeated Kerry.

Bush adds on to his total Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, states won by Kerry by very narrow margins.

Dean would be less regarded as a credible nominee than was John Kerry. 

Bush/Cheney            338 EV  53% PV
Dean/Edwards          200 EV  47% PV

[jokerman]

That's a very accurate map, Winfield, in my opinion.

[TomC]

Add Wash, Minn, and NJ to Dean, and I think this is it.

[ATFFL]

Add Wash, Minn, and NJ to Dean, and I think this is it.

Agree on MN, Dean's grassroots appeal locks that state up.  WA is a lean Dem tossup.  Bush could take it.

NJ is a toss up. Dean would have to show some anti-terror strength to take it.  NJ independents take a long time to decide, and I wager Bush and Dean would spend a lot of money in the state.  At least, the southern half.