1912: Taft vs Wilson(If Teddy and Debs dont run)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Taft 273
Wilson 258


Ohio is the tipping point state which Taft narrowly carries

[Alben Barkley]

It would basically look like the 1916 map. Wilson might actually do better, winning states like WV, IN, OR, UT, even NY. Taft was a pretty weak incumbent and the GOP would have been divided even if Roosevelt doesn’t run third party. I can even see a disgruntled Roosevelt endorsing Wilson after failing to win the Republican nomination. Lots of crossover support from progressives for Wilson in any case. No Debs means he likely picks up most of his support too. Plus at this point some party fatigue was likely setting in after the GOP won four terms in a row. It was a time when people were looking for change.

[Sir Mohamed]

✓ Governor Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ)/Governor Thomas Marshall (D-IN): 283 EVs.; 49.9%
President William H. Taft (R-OH)/Diplomat Nicholas Butler (R-NY): 248 EVs.; 47.1%

[Agonized-Statism]

President William Taft (R-OH) / Educator Nicholas Butler (R-NY)
Governor Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ) / Governor Thomas Marshall (D-IN) ✓

The progressive movement throws itself behind Wilson, who is able to expand from Bryan's populist coalition into the Northeast. The death of the vice president days before the election casts doubt in voters' minds on the stability of the Republican White House.