How will the 2020s go politically?

[Bootes Void]

The 20,40s,60s,80s and 00s were optimistic eras in America(relatively) and were relatively outword looking.

The 30s, 50, 70s, 90s, and the 2010s were fairly insular and had a bit of pessimism to it.

So knowing these patterns how will the 2020s go?

[OSR stands with Israel]

the 90s were the definition of optimistic lol

[HillGoose]

liz cheney is gonna win POTUS and liberate Iran from theocratic tyranny and everyone will become neocon

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are going to win them, we can't go back as business as usual in a Covid crisis, letting oil companies run a muck and pollute the Environment like the 2017 tax cuts did, we need the Green New Deal, Paris Accords. Look what happened, we have a Covid Crisis and severe drought in the Pacific. D's, not Rs are the perfect check on oil pollution

Watch 2022/2024/2026/2028 will all go favorably to Ds

[Hope For A New Era]

I find it hard to imagine anything worse than the 2010s.


Pardon me while I go spend 2,020 hours knocking on wood.

[PSOL]

The Republican Party will do whatever it takes to win and turn the United States into Turkey. This will lead to implicit backing of various external forces like militias to terrorize the populace into submission. Once the necessary austerity cuts and further consolidation for the elite occurs, corporate America might then find it safe to put the Dems in charge to stabilize the financial markets and act as a pressure-release for a growing class-conscious population.

[Diabolical Materialism]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic

[Never Made it to Graceland]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

[Diabolical Materialism]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

Yeah, I don't doubt that the 2020s will not be an improvement over the 2010s, especially given the aftermath of COVID-19, but you should never trust people who say they've figured everything out and can model human behavior and predict the future. There are people who constantly predict recessions and The Downfall of America, and if enough people pick enough years, then eventually one of them will be correct when bad things happen.

But I seriously fail to see how the current period is somehow worse than many other periods in our history. We are nowhere near the levels of division seen before the Civil War. We're still not in the levels of polarization and engagement seen in Gilded Age (but we are close, and that's indicative). The past 50 years were a fairly stable and quiet period, and that's ending, but it's not the first time we've gone through turbulent, divided periods.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

Yeah, I don't doubt that the 2020s will not be an improvement over the 2010s, especially given the aftermath of COVID-19, but you should never trust people who say they've figured everything out and can model human behavior and predict the future. There are people who constantly predict recessions and The Downfall of America, and if enough people pick enough years, then eventually one of them will be correct when bad things happen.

But I seriously fail to see how the current period is somehow worse than many other periods in our history. We are nowhere near the levels of division seen before the Civil War. We're still not in the levels of polarization and engagement seen in Gilded Age (but we are close, and that's indicative). The past 50 years were a fairly stable and quiet period, and that's ending, but it's not the first time we've gone through turbulent, divided periods.

The last 50 years also saw the end of the prosperity of the Post-war period. If you haven't noticed it getting worse, you haven't been paying attention. Letting income inequality manifest to this height is a bubble that's bound to pop. Covid and it's horrifically bad response only accelerated a trend . Other countries have done better with social welfare but America as frozen piss iceberg in the world's ocean will flood many lands with its inevitable melt.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

Yeah, I don't doubt that the 2020s will not be an improvement over the 2010s, especially given the aftermath of COVID-19, but you should never trust people who say they've figured everything out and can model human behavior and predict the future. There are people who constantly predict recessions and The Downfall of America, and if enough people pick enough years, then eventually one of them will be correct when bad things happen.

But I seriously fail to see how the current period is somehow worse than many other periods in our history. We are nowhere near the levels of division seen before the Civil War. We're still not in the levels of polarization and engagement seen in Gilded Age (but we are close, and that's indicative). The past 50 years were a fairly stable and quiet period, and that's ending, but it's not the first time we've gone through turbulent, divided periods.

The last 50 years also saw the end of the prosperity of the Post-war period. If you haven't noticed it getting worse, you haven't been paying attention. Letting income inequality manifest to this height is a bubble that's bound to pop. Covid and it's horrifically bad response only accelerated a trend . Other countries have done better with social welfare but America as frozen piss iceberg in the world's ocean will flood many lands with its inevitable melt.

Yes, I was talking about political engagement being so low. Now that it's gotten bad enough, the relative quietness and stability of the past 50 years is breaking down faster and faster. We had enough inertia to get us into the 2000s, but since the Great Recession, the economic and social divide have gotten much worse, much quicker.

[Diabolical Materialism]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

Yeah, I don't doubt that the 2020s will not be an improvement over the 2010s, especially given the aftermath of COVID-19, but you should never trust people who say they've figured everything out and can model human behavior and predict the future. There are people who constantly predict recessions and The Downfall of America, and if enough people pick enough years, then eventually one of them will be correct when bad things happen.

But I seriously fail to see how the current period is somehow worse than many other periods in our history. We are nowhere near the levels of division seen before the Civil War. We're still not in the levels of polarization and engagement seen in Gilded Age (but we are close, and that's indicative). The past 50 years were a fairly stable and quiet period, and that's ending, but it's not the first time we've gone through turbulent, divided periods.

I don't agree with Turchin's assertions per se, all I'm saying is that his approach to history isn't new.

[Calthrina950]

I suspect that the 2020s could end up becoming a "Republican" decade, which in many respects, has been the fate of every decade from the 1970s onwards, as engendered by the Nixon realignment of 1968, and consolidated by the Reagan Revolution of 1980. That is, Republicans will take control of both Houses of Congress in 2022, win the Presidency in 2024, maintain at least one House of Congress in 2026, and perhaps win presidential reelection in 2028. Of course, it's possible that Democrats win the presidential election in 2024, but that would make the 2026 midterms distinctly unfavorable to their party.

At any rate, this year has been a horrendous start to the new decade, and I only expect polarization, and the factors attendant to it, to get worse as the decade progresses. Globalization (and automation), climate change, income inequality-all of these issues, and more, will just become more salient. Republicans will block many of Biden's policy initiatives, and gridlock will encompass our government. Great social battles will be waged over issues such as immigration, transgender rights, political correctness, police brutality, and the like, with little for the better by 2029 on many of these issues. The effects of the pandemic will reverberate throughout the remainder of the decade, and exacerbate these crises.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Most likely a (sharp) decline in democracy globally (Hungarization vs Neoliberal global elites). Very pessimistic about it. Climate change is going to be unstoppable as well. Coral reefs and most of the Amazon will be gone by 2030.

[Calthrina950]

Most likely a (sharp) decline in democracy globally (Hungarization vs Neoliberal global elites). Very pessimistic about it. Climate change is going to be unstoppable as well. Coral reefs and most of the Amazon will be gone by 2030.

One of the most frustrating things about this, is that there are millions of people, perhaps even hundreds of millions, of people, who continue to deny or downplay climate change. This problem is especially noticeable in the United States. That makes it much more difficult for anything to be done to address it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Most likely a (sharp) decline in democracy globally (Hungarization vs Neoliberal global elites). Very pessimistic about it. Climate change is going to be unstoppable as well. Coral reefs and most of the Amazon will be gone by 2030.

One of the most frustrating things about this, is that there are millions of people, perhaps even hundreds of millions, of people, who continue to deny or downplay climate change. This problem is especially noticeable in the United States. That makes it much more difficult for anything to be done to address it.

That's true. I made some opinions about it in Dutch. I will google translate them and make a thread.

[Derpist]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/

I just read this article in the Atlantic.

TLDR it will be worse than any other decade in American history if this guy's theories are correct.

That's a really interesting article. Though I will say Turchin's ideas about trying to apply general laws to Human history aren't new or unique. Marxists and Whig historians have been arguing for more or less the same thing for a very long time. And the concept of "mathematizing" history sounds like Marxist historians' reliance on economic and material data for their arguments. Nevertheless an interesting article.

Yeah, I don't doubt that the 2020s will not be an improvement over the 2010s, especially given the aftermath of COVID-19, but you should never trust people who say they've figured everything out and can model human behavior and predict the future. There are people who constantly predict recessions and The Downfall of America, and if enough people pick enough years, then eventually one of them will be correct when bad things happen.

But I seriously fail to see how the current period is somehow worse than many other periods in our history. We are nowhere near the levels of division seen before the Civil War. We're still not in the levels of polarization and engagement seen in Gilded Age (but we are close, and that's indicative). The past 50 years were a fairly stable and quiet period, and that's ending, but it's not the first time we've gone through turbulent, divided periods.

The last 50 years also saw the end of the prosperity of the Post-war period. If you haven't noticed it getting worse, you haven't been paying attention. Letting income inequality manifest to this height is a bubble that's bound to pop. Covid and it's horrifically bad response only accelerated a trend . Other countries have done better with social welfare but America as frozen piss iceberg in the world's ocean will flood many lands with its inevitable melt.

Yes, I was talking about political engagement being so low. Now that it's gotten bad enough, the relative quietness and stability of the past 50 years is breaking down faster and faster. We had enough inertia to get us into the 2000s, but since the Great Recession, the economic and social divide have gotten much worse, much quicker.

It actually seems to me political engagement is at all times high in the United States.

[Bomster]

Hell.