NM-1 special election - Special election: June 1st

[SnowLabrador]

I really hope that the margin is huge in favor of Democrats. The last thing we need is to give the GOP another rallying cry for 2022.

[Vosem]

Interesting to note that this is a seat with an unusually large gap between the presidential and congressional votes in 2020; Biden won here by 23 points (60/37), but Haaland won by just 16 (58/42). Given several factors -- recent scandals in the New Mexico state government, Biden's relatively poor numbers with Hispanics in approval polling, the GOP being traditionally strong here but weighed down by Trump -- this feels like a seat where Republicans should over-perform, and if they don't it'll mean something is going wrong.

(On the other hand, one aspect of this race that no one is discussing which will help Democrats is the presence of right-wing third parties. Aubrey Dunn, who was elected statewide as a Republican in 2014, is running here; there is also a Libertarian candidate, and while nationally it often varies NM is a place where Libertarians are often strong and clearly take more votes from the GOP than the Democrats. Democrats have a bit of room for error here that they wouldn't have elsewhere.)

I'd put the over/under at around a D+13 margin (which is swing to a national tie from the 2020 House result; Republicans don't need a national tie to take the House but this is the sort of place they do need to notch an improvement in even if they don't win). Stansbury winning by more than that is a good night for Democrats; less than that is a good night for the GOP. I think a single-digit margin for Moores is perfectly achievable if Republicans are on track for a midterm wave in 2022. (A victory for Moores would be extremely bonkers and would have to portend very bad things for the Biden Administration, the MLG Administration, and Melanie Stansbury's political skills.)

[tjstarling]

How did Lujan perform in this seat in ‘20?

[VAR]

How did Lujan perform in this seat in ‘20?

Lujan carried this seat by 15 points (56-41).

[tjstarling]

How did Lujan perform in this seat in ‘20?

Lujan carried this seat by 15 points (56-41).

As someone knowing little about New Mexico’s political dynamics, that surprises me. Given his underwhelming performance in the Senate race, I didn’t expect him to almost match Haaland.

[Calthrina950]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Melanie Stansbury seems more prepared and competent to me. I think her website is significantly better. I like her more than Moores - she seems pretty smart


I don't really understand what you all see in Moores. He seems like a dweeb to me

[DrScholl]

Melanie Stansbury seems more prepared and competent to me. I think her website is significantly better. I like her more than Moores - she seems pretty smart


I don't really understand what you all see in Moores. He seems like a dweeb to me

Atlas thinks every Republican running in a blue district is amazing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

He won't even publicly admit that Biden is the legitimately elected President of the United States, even though he's running to represent a district that voted for him by 23 points.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

He won't even publicly admit that Biden is the legitimately elected President of the United States, even though he's running to represent a district that voted for him by 23 points.

Lol, really? Where did he say this?

[Gracile]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

He won't even publicly admit that Biden is the legitimately elected President of the United States, even though he's running to represent a district that voted for him by 23 points.

Lol, really? Where did he say this?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1390313103452098565

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/watch-kob-4-hosts-cd-1-special-election-debate/6096839/

^The full video is in this link under the title "The Presidential Election/Bipartisanship."

[compucomp]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

He won't even publicly admit that Biden is the legitimately elected President of the United States, even though he's running to represent a district that voted for him by 23 points.

Lol, really? Where did he say this?

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1390313103452098565
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/watch-kob-4-hosts-cd-1-special-election-debate/6096839/

^The full video is in this link under the title "The Presidential Election/Bipartisanship."

There is something seriously wrong with American political discourse when Republicans can say that the 2020 election was fraudulent in order to rile up their base, but if a Democrat tried to pin that on his Republican opponent and make "this guy won't recognize Joe Biden as legitimately elected" his central campaign issue, he would be slammed and lose support for being divisive, beating a dead horse, not focusing on issues that matter to the people, etc.

[Calthrina950]

Stansbury will probably win, but I wouldn't rule out a single-digit margin at this stage, and such a result would portend poorly for Democrats in next year's midterms. Objectively, Moores does seem to be a stronger candidate than Stansbury is.

He won't even publicly admit that Biden is the legitimately elected President of the United States, even though he's running to represent a district that voted for him by 23 points.

As I've said elsewhere, most Republicans won't admit that Biden won the election, and have bought into-or claim to believe-Trump's voter fraud lies. However, I'm pessimistic that this alone will stop Republicans from winning a House majority next year or from potentially making gains in this year's elections.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting to note that this is a seat with an unusually large gap between the presidential and congressional votes in 2020; Biden won here by 23 points (60/37), but Haaland won by just 16 (58/42). Given several factors -- recent scandals in the New Mexico state government, Biden's relatively poor numbers with Hispanics in approval polling, the GOP being traditionally strong here but weighed down by Trump -- this feels like a seat where Republicans should over-perform, and if they don't it'll mean something is going wrong.

(On the other hand, one aspect of this race that no one is discussing which will help Democrats is the presence of right-wing third parties. Aubrey Dunn, who was elected statewide as a Republican in 2014, is running here; there is also a Libertarian candidate, and while nationally it often varies NM is a place where Libertarians are often strong and clearly take more votes from the GOP than the Democrats. Democrats have a bit of room for error here that they wouldn't have elsewhere.)

I'd put the over/under at around a D+13 margin (which is swing to a national tie from the 2020 House result; Republicans don't need a national tie to take the House but this is the sort of place they do need to notch an improvement in even if they don't win). Stansbury winning by more than that is a good night for Democrats; less than that is a good night for the GOP. I think a single-digit margin for Moores is perfectly achievable if Republicans are on track for a midterm wave in 2022. (A victory for Moores would be extremely bonkers and would have to portend very bad things for the Biden Administration, the MLG Administration, and Melanie Stansbury's political skills.)

This doesn't really apply to NM though, where he did just fine with Hispanics.

[It’s so Joever]

Why does Atlas seem to think all of New Mexico is just a version of Starr County?

Not even mentioning the fact that it’s a different type of Hispanic, NM-01 is largely an urban district. Yes, Hispanics will obviously matter here, but they aren’t the only group in this district. For gosh sakes, there are also a lot of Sunbelt suburbs, but nobody seems to remember that for some reason.

F**k, the district trended Democrat in 2020.

Yes a Republican can win this, but the takes from all of these people who probably have never stepped a single foot anywhere near this district are hilarious.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

This is the 1st special election of Biden's presidency that isn't in LA or TX (states with weird primary runoff laws)

[Xing]

Here are the templates for reactions to the results:

“Massive (over/under)performance for the (GOP/Democrats)! This proves 2022 will be a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux)!”

“It’s just one special election, we can’t jump to conclusions about 2022 being a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux) based on this election alone. Besides, don’t forget about the (TX-06/WI-Superintendent) results!”

[It’s so Joever]

Here are the templates for reactions to the results:

“Massive (over/under)performance for the (GOP/Democrats)! This proves 2022 will be a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux)!”

“It’s just one special election, we can’t jump to conclusions about 2022 being a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux) based on this election alone. Besides, don’t forget about the (TX-06/WI-Superintendent) results!”

It will be a Republican overperformance anyways.

[VAR]

Moores acknowledges Biden's win:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1392554836810506246

[Young Conservative]

Is anyone else getting the vibe that maybe this actually is competitive? The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Moores and Stansbury seems to have made one or two blunders. Any News Mexicans that can shed some light on the status of this race, as I could be totally wrong and just wishcasting?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NM is slam dunk D state

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is anyone else getting the vibe that maybe this actually is competitive? The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Moores and Stansbury seems to have made one or two blunders. Any News Mexicans that can shed some light on the status of this race, as I could be totally wrong and just wishcasting?

What blunders has Stansbury made?

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the templates for reactions to the results:

“Massive (over/under)performance for the (GOP/Democrats)! This proves 2022 will be a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux)!”

“It’s just one special election, we can’t jump to conclusions about 2022 being a (Republican tsunami/2002 redux) based on this election alone. Besides, don’t forget about the (TX-06/WI-Superintendent) results!”

I was pretty surprised with the margin in the Superintendent race, but honestly means next to nothing in terms of predicting partisan congressional elections, even compared to special congressional elections. Jill Underly won counties that Trump won by 30+ points. As did Karofsky (to a lesser extent).

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting to note that this is a seat with an unusually large gap between the presidential and congressional votes in 2020; Biden won here by 23 points (60/37), but Haaland won by just 16 (58/42). Given several factors -- recent scandals in the New Mexico state government, Biden's relatively poor numbers with Hispanics in approval polling, the GOP being traditionally strong here but weighed down by Trump -- this feels like a seat where Republicans should over-perform, and if they don't it'll mean something is going wrong.

(On the other hand, one aspect of this race that no one is discussing which will help Democrats is the presence of right-wing third parties. Aubrey Dunn, who was elected statewide as a Republican in 2014, is running here; there is also a Libertarian candidate, and while nationally it often varies NM is a place where Libertarians are often strong and clearly take more votes from the GOP than the Democrats. Democrats have a bit of room for error here that they wouldn't have elsewhere.)

I'd put the over/under at around a D+13 margin (which is swing to a national tie from the 2020 House result; Republicans don't need a national tie to take the House but this is the sort of place they do need to notch an improvement in even if they don't win). Stansbury winning by more than that is a good night for Democrats; less than that is a good night for the GOP. I think a single-digit margin for Moores is perfectly achievable if Republicans are on track for a midterm wave in 2022. (A victory for Moores would be extremely bonkers and would have to portend very bad things for the Biden Administration, the MLG Administration, and Melanie Stansbury's political skills.)

This doesn't really apply to NM though, where he did just fine with Hispanics.

But he did worse than Hillary, he just did a lot better with urban whites in Albuquerque and Sante Fe (and probably got a decent amount of Johnson '16 voters).

[Roll Roons]

Is anyone else getting the vibe that maybe this actually is competitive? The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Moores and Stansbury seems to have made one or two blunders. Any News Mexicans that can shed some light on the status of this race, as I could be totally wrong and just wishcasting?

I highly doubt it actually flips, but I think a single-digit margin is definitely possible. FWIW, Trump won KS-04 by 27 points in 2016, but Estes (R) won the special election margin by 7. We might see a redux here.