How soon could we have this map?
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Author Topic: How soon could we have this map?  (Read 896 times)
SingingAnalyst
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« on: December 13, 2020, 08:56:06 PM »

Dem 297 or so
GOP 241 or so
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2020, 09:47:53 PM »
Possibly as early as 2024, depending on the candidates.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2020, 10:35:29 PM »
This could be Ron DeSantis vs. Xavier Becerra, but the Texas results are iffy. I can't think of a single Democrat who could swing exclusively Texans like that.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2020, 11:10:07 PM »
2036?
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2020, 05:15:49 AM »
Quote from: Arachno-Statism on December 13, 2020, 10:35:29 PM
This could be Ron DeSantis vs. Xavier Becerra, but the Texas results are iffy. I can't think of a single Democrat who could swing exclusively Texans like that.
Perhaps I should have shaded Texas 40%+ rather than 50%+. What other states would be Atlas red in this scenario? Would any currently Atlas red state flip to Atlas blue?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2020, 09:56:49 AM »
Quote from: mathstatman on December 14, 2020, 05:15:49 AM
Quote from: Arachno-Statism on December 13, 2020, 10:35:29 PM
This could be Ron DeSantis vs. Xavier Becerra, but the Texas results are iffy. I can't think of a single Democrat who could swing exclusively Texans like that.
Perhaps I should have shaded Texas 40%+ rather than 50%+. What other states would be Atlas red in this scenario? Would any currently Atlas red state flip to Atlas blue?

This is probably pushing it, but some of the more plausible flips that have been discussed for Rust Belt vs. Sun Belt are Rhode Island, Delaware, Kansas, and Mississippi. In truth I doubt Republicans will surrender the EV-rich Sun Belt states so easily.
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Squidward500
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2020, 03:22:50 PM »
Texas remains to be seen what will happen when a non Controversial Republican is on the ballot. Trump had decreased margins but still win comfortably. Cruz is a whole another story being republicans Elizabeth Warren in terms of know-it-all-ism and unlikeability. Cornyn won by 10 and he didn’t even get the RGV support trump did.

Long term, Austin and Dallas are problems. Houston will probably remain stagnant with D’s and R’s swapping support among upper class whites and latinos respectively. The RGV could be a big player. The republicans found placer gold there this year...will they invest time amd outreach to unearth the nuggets?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2020, 11:51:56 AM »
Quote from: DabbingSanta on December 13, 2020, 09:47:53 PM
Possibly as early as 2024, depending on the candidates.

Minnesota is not flipping in 2024, probably not ME or NH either.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2020, 12:02:14 PM »
New Hampshire is not going R anytime soon. Trends have decisively put an end to that. Way too educated.
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2020, 09:35:55 PM »
2028 or 2032 probably
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2020, 09:53:09 PM »
Assuming what though? 2024 going Republican, along with 2028?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2020, 08:14:39 PM »
It's never gonna happen, Unions in the Midwest are the cornerstone of Ds
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buritobr
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2020, 09:42:17 PM »
After the results of 2020, I think we can predict that the Minnesota stronghold will keep safe in the next years
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