Report: an internal poll had doug jones up 1 the thursday before EDAY

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/varadmehta/status/1337884683338715137

[Bootes Void]

That's the issue with this year's poll or are they aren't telling us full context

[KaiserDave]

This is such clickbait. But GQ isn't exactly a source for any serious political commentary.

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s the problem when you ask PPP to do your campaign surveys

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

[redjohn]

And I'm sure Trump's internals had him up bigly in NV+MI a week before election day. Every single campaign's numbers are biased in their favor. Most candidates, even those hopelessly running in districts/states that are completely opposed to them on a partisan level, believe their races will be close or that they will win even if they are likely to lose by wide margins.

[Barack Oganja]

That internal was only a little more off than the polls for Maine Senate

[100% pro-life no matter what]

And I'm sure Trump's internals had him up bigly in NV+MI a week before election day. Every single campaign's numbers are biased in their favor. Most candidates, even those hopelessly running in districts/states that are completely opposed to them on a partisan level, believe their races will be close or that they will win even if they are likely to lose by wide margins.

No, every campaign's actual internals are designed to be close to the actual result.  It's just the internals that get published that tend to have an agenda.

[Calthrina950]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

[smoltchanov]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

Add to this more then 100 millions, spent on Harrison's race in SC. Enormous sum for this not so big state. Result? Only slightly different from 2014 and 2008 races, where Democrats didn't spent even 1/10th of that sum. Idiocy. The quality of Democratic Senate candidates in most of this year races was abysmal: they parroted national party program without any consideration for local conditions and issues. And yes - result was such, that they will remember it for many years. No amount of money can compensate for human foolishness.

[Frenchrepublican]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

For Jones to even have a chance, Biden would’ve had to have been losing the state by less than 3 points.

[Calthrina950]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was clear, that there was an R wave at the end, Jones lost at the end by 60/40 margin

[Blair]

Yeah this article is a bit strange; it seems to confuse DSCC super-pac money (often raised by bundlers/large donors) with campaign donations (see resistance wine mums)

The article claims that the DSCC was funelling money into Kentucky but iirc Kentucky didn't get any DSCC ad spending and was written off in the summer.

I don't think that Doug Jones would have won or done much better if he had another $50 million; the only way that democrats can seem to win red state senate seats is by facing a hilarously bad opponent & having had some sort of statewide experience that lets them get cross-over voters.

I mean the thing that should worry the Democrats the most is that they haven't won an open senate seat or defeated an incumbent in a purely red state since what 2012?

[brucejoel99]

I mean the thing that should worry the Democrats the most is that they haven't won an open senate seat or defeated an incumbent in a purely red state since what 2012?

Correct, other than Jones himself in 2017

[MT Treasurer]

Even Republican internal polling showed most of these red state Senate races much closer than they turned out to be, so while it’s easy to pride yourself on your predictions of massive R wins in all of those races, you really had little other than your ‘hunch’ or ‘gut feeling’ to go by when you made them. Needless to say, the polling industry is in a major crisis.

[Frenchrepublican]

Even Republican internal polling showed most of these red state Senate races much closer than they turned out to be, so while it’s easy to pride yourself on your predictions of massive R wins in all of those races, you really had little other than your ‘hunch’ or ‘gut feeling’ to go by when you made them. Needless to say, the polling industry is in a major crisis.

Concerning the AL Senate race it's not exactly true as Tuberville posted one internal poll which had Doug Jones down by 15, also you had plenty of credible pollsters which polled the state - Cygnal for example - and whose polls showed Jones losing by double digits, the fact that some people refused to admit that Jones was DOA has nothing to do with polls, it was just wishful thinking

[Frenchrepublican]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

Outside of Cooper or Shuler who he is not even living in the state anymore, I doubt that any democrat would have been able to win the seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, he will be a good AG, he was a Pragmatist and didn't mind working with Pragmatist Rs like Lamar Alexander

[Calthrina950]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

Outside of Cooper or Shuler who he is not even living in the state anymore, I doubt that any democrat would have been able to win the seat.

I'd disagree with you. North Carolina was winnable in my view, but it would have required a better candidate and a better campaign.

[Frenchrepublican]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

Outside of Cooper or Shuler who he is not even living in the state anymore, I doubt that any democrat would have been able to win the seat.

I'd disagree with you. North Carolina was winnable in my view, but it would have required a better candidate and a better campaign.

And who ? Josh Stein ? He barely won reelection in a race where he was expected to cruise to a easy win. Marshall ? She is too old and she won by much less than the previous times, i doubt she would have been able to win in a more partisan federal race. One of the member of the House delegation ? They're very old, and their voting record make them unelectable statewide.

[Calthrina950]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

Outside of Cooper or Shuler who he is not even living in the state anymore, I doubt that any democrat would have been able to win the seat.

I'd disagree with you. North Carolina was winnable in my view, but it would have required a better candidate and a better campaign.

And who ? Josh Stein ? He barely won reelection in a race where he was expected to cruise to a easy win. Marshall ? She is too old and she won by much less than the previous times, i doubt she would have been able to win in a more partisan federal race. One of the member of the House delegation ? They're very old, and their voting record make them unelectable statewide.

I had in mind Jeff Jackson, who could very well be a Senatorial candidate in 2022.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whoever this Twitter personality is, they sound like a smug cretin of the kind you see on Atlas. These people add no information whatsoever to the conversation and aren't worth listening to.

I'd love to see a postmortem of what went wrong with intenral polling in this race (and presumably other races), but this clearly ain't it.

[Frenchrepublican]

They wasted $90 million on McGrath. Gideon ran a terribly out of touch campaign. The list of blunders by Democrats in Senate races this year is long.

And now they're going to pay for those mistakes for the remainder of the decade.

I doubt that spending more in ME and NC would have changed anything for democrats, these races were already satured

I wasn't referring to fundraising; I was referring to the candidates. Democrats surely could have done better than Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon.

Outside of Cooper or Shuler who he is not even living in the state anymore, I doubt that any democrat would have been able to win the seat.

I'd disagree with you. North Carolina was winnable in my view, but it would have required a better candidate and a better campaign.

And who ? Josh Stein ? He barely won reelection in a race where he was expected to cruise to a easy win. Marshall ? She is too old and she won by much less than the previous times, i doubt she would have been able to win in a more partisan federal race. One of the member of the House delegation ? They're very old, and their voting record make them unelectable statewide.

I had in mind Jeff Jackson, who could very well be a Senatorial candidate in 2022.

I'm very sceptic that Jackson would have found enough crossover voters to win while Biden was losing at the same time.