Reaction to Trump winning Texas by over 5 points?

[Woody]

??

[ultraviolet]

Well, he’s back

[Bomster]

??

A little disappointing since there were times it seemed it could actually flip but we still won anyway. It’s a nice to have, not need to have.

What’s you’re reaction to Biden winning Minnesota by over 7?

[ProgressiveModerate]

A bit better than I expected, though it's still a real cause for concern for the GOP in the long term. Trump was able to make notable improvements with the Hispanic community but the state still tightened; swinging the RGV 40% to the right every cycle and trying to continue to make gains in Western TX isn't a sustainable strategy since soon you'd have to be winning over 100% of the vote in those counties. The one good sign for the GOP was how Harris County stayed stagnate pretty much from 2016. It's clear the GOP can make some level of inroads in cities to stall the trends; heck, we saw many urban metros swing right. The question is how can that stall trends in Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth, all of which are growing?

Also, fun fact; Biden got nearly 600k more votes in TX than Trump got in 2016. If 2024 is lower turnout, we could see some huge reversion back to the GOP or a Democratic win in the state.

[°Leprechaun]

I didn't expect Biden to win Texas, so really not a surprise at all.
Hopefully Democrats can do better in the state in 2024.
It is likely to be a battleground if not a swing state or even a tossup state.
If it doesn't flip in 2024, I won't be surprised, as it could be similar to 2020.
The Republican candidate might even do better than Trump did this year.

Ted Cruz could conceivably be the GOP nominee in 2024, and even he could plausibly (if not likely) win the state.

[VAR]

??

A little disappointing since there were times it seemed it could actually flip but we still won anyway. It’s a nice to have, not need to have.

What’s you’re reaction to Biden winning Minnesota by over 7?

I change my rating; Toss up/Tilt Lewis.

[KaiserDave]

would you just go away nobody likes you

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

??

Your reaction to Trump losing the election?

[forsythvoter]

I would say there were several other states I was far more surprised by (the FL / GA swings in opposite directions especially) this election. I thought Trump was headed for a 51-48 win in TX (similar to Cruz's win over Beto) so the actual result was about a 2-3 point overperformance, due primarily to the RGV and inner city Hispanic swings towards him, which I don't think polls picked up on.

To me, the election also confirmed the suburban trends in TX are real and not something to be ignored (with the RGV swings being the magnitude they were, it actually is kind of surprising TX still swung more than 3% towards Biden) and the real question is to what extent this continues post-Trump. You could conversely argue that Rs can't really count on Hispanics continuing to swing towards them or even prevent them from snapping back next election. Given TX will likely have 40 or 41 electoral votes next election, the bottom line is neither party should be taking the state for granted or avoiding investing in the state going forward.

[MATTROSE94]

??

A little disappointing since there were times it seemed it could actually flip but we still won anyway. It’s a nice to have, not need to have.

What’s you’re reaction to Biden winning Minnesota by over 7?

Had Joe Biden had a better GOTV set up in the Rio Grande Valley, it is possible that Texas could have flipped. I think that Texas is kind of at the same point where Georgia was in 2012 or where Virginia was in 2000. President Ron DeSantis' runs should be the last rodeo for the Republicans in Texas, however, as the state should narrowly vote Democratic in 2032 and become a solidly blue state by 2044 or 2048.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wave Elections are hard to predict, and there probably won't be any 413 landslides in the future

[Hammy]

I figured the state was gone after Biden let his campaign get run out of the state by freeway terrorists.

[BaldEagle1991]

I figured the state was gone after Biden let his campaign get run out of the state by freeway terrorists.

I think a lot of swing voters in Texas may have went to Biden after that event.

If it weren’t for that, I think it would’ve been similar to the Cornyn-Hegar margins or close to it.

[President Johnson]

??

Your reaction to Trump losing the election?

Only because Democrats rigged the election and Supreme Court has no spine/surrundered to the Deep State of globalist elites. /s

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There’s no way Trump actually won Texas by a 5. In reality, Biden won it by a landslide, and so did Hegar and a dozen Dem challengers for state legislature.  The Republicans controlling the government just made it look like Trump won by changing the ballot drop-off locations at the last minute to facilitate massive voter fraud.  Pennsylvania and Michigan and Georgia and all the Dems in Congress should really sue Texas to have the election overturned and the rightful Democrats installed in those seats.

[Frodo]

Biden cut Trump's winning margin by nearly half from 2016 to 2020.  That's progress.  I expect Democrats to cut the GOP lead even further by 2024 assuming we don't win the state outright yet.  

[Alben Barkley]

Is this really the best you got?

Bragging about your losing candidate (who you were SO sure would win) having the worst performance for a Republican in Texas in decades?

Yikes.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Why do you keep making these threads?

[Non Swing Voter]

this is only a "surprise" because:

1) it was overhyped right before the election even though many of us knew in the back of our minds that it was a stretch

2) Beto's performance in 2018 and the conventional wisdom that Presidential electorates are more favorable to Democrats

I think we are at the point where off year elections are becoming more favorable to Democrats because of the education divide.  I think you have to compare this performance to 2016 not 2018, which still means there was movement for Democrats.  I'd still be worried long term if I were a Republican because they absolutely cannot lose Texas and compete nationally, especially as it gains electoral votes.

[Beet]

I was one of those Democrats who was pretty hopeful about Texas.

Despite my general pessimism, I gave Biden a 35% chance here. It's now apparent I was too optimistic. The Democrats' position didn't really gain from 2016 because back then, even though Clinton lost by a slightly larger margin, there was always this notion that if turnout increased, then Democrats would gain. There was this saying Texas Democrats liked to repeat, "Texas isn't a red state, it's a blue/purple state with low turnout/voter suppression." Well, this year turnout in Texas skyrocketed, and it proved we have a solid Republican majority after all. Trump gained 1.2 million votes between 2016 and 2020, which is more than George W. Bush gained on Bob Dole from 1996 to 2000, or indeed more than any Republican candidate has gained here in Texas in a single cycle ever.

Even worse, it's apparent some of the Biden voters are Republicans who were just fed up with Trump's personal antics. While Biden lost 46%-52%, downballot Democrats lost by more. John Cornyn won by 10 points; about the same margin as he did in 2002 and 2008. This is a better indicator of the partisan baseline than Trump-Biden. But while in the 2000's the Democrats could claim this was due to low turnout, now they cannot. Some Republicans got a record six million votes, which is ridiculous consideration that George Bush didn't even crack 5 million in his heyday.

Even worse, with the Republicans' control of redistricting and 83-67 majority in the state house, and solid majority in the state senate, they look to remain solidly in the majority in state government for at least until 2030. Even if you extrapolate the gains that Biden made 2016-2020 and assume that those anti-Trump Republicans eventually become Democrats, at the current rate it would take until at least 2032 for it to put a Democrat over the top. And who knows what could happen by then? All in all, I wouldn't say the Democrats should get too hopeful about Texas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The topline is fine for what it is. It's slowly getting there, but it will take some time. The internal trends of the state were deeply disturbing, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The topline is fine for what it is. It's slowly getting there, but it will take some time. The internal trends of the state were deeply disturbing, though.

[TheReckoning]

Is this really the best you got?

Bragging about your losing candidate (who you were SO sure would win) having the worst performance for a Republican in Texas in decades?

Yikes.

Imagine ridiculing someone for their prediction instead of answering why yours was just as ridiculous.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As a serious answer, I was much more surprised by Biden’s poor performance in the Midwest than his exact margin in Texas.  Honestly, it doesn’t surprise me at all that TX voted 9-10 points to the right of the nation.  I had expected Biden to win easily overall while underperforming with Latinos.  I was right about the last half.

[Chips]

Not too shocked.