Democrats, do you think that redistricting will hurt the Party?

[°Leprechaun]

Will it be easier for Republicans to win the House in 2022 and the POTUS election in 2024, because of changes in House seats and in the electoral college.

As far as the electoral college goes there will be losses in blue states and gains in some purple states. It will be interesting to see maps when the calculator is updated with the new numbers.

It will be hard to win Texas.

[BaldEagle1991]

Obviously yes.

[°Leprechaun]

Obviously yes.

I tend to agree, especially about the 2022 election, and am wondering how much gerrymandering there will be. As far as the 2024 election goes, there will probably be a small advantage for the Republicans, but that doesn't mean that it will tip the election there way unless it is extremely close. It depends on what the firewall will be for the Dems.

(and of course states like AZ, GA, and NC will be crucial if Dems lose any of the following: PA,WI, MI, or NV, although I think the first two are most likely to flip,, in a close election MI, and NV may not be likely to flip)

[Del Tachi]

Obviously yes.  In addition to House seats/EVs being (generally) reallocated from blue states to redder states, Republicans have control of redistricting in more key states (TX, FL, GA, OH, etc.) while Dems are locked out of complete control in states that could be favorably redrawn for them (MN, MI, PA, CA, etc.) thanks to non-partisan commissions or R's controlling a single branch of state government

The M.O. for GOP legislatures going to be drawing additional VRA seats in metroes like ATL, DFW and Houston in exchange for shoring-up 3-4 exurban/suburban GOP districts in the process.  Collin Allred and Carolyn Boudreaux get drawn into safe maj-min seats, while Beth Van Duyne and Troy Nehls get to pick-up additional, rabidly-red rural/exurban voters.  On top of this, the trends among rural voters since 2010 means that GOP legislators can safely crack non-VRA urban vote sinks in states like TN, IN, NE and MO for additional gains.

[Devils30]

We'll see what happens in NY, Dems could easily redraw 2,11 and one upstate R out. Same with IL with 13 and maybe one other. We also don't know what the commissions will do in MI, AZ and the courts in WI, PA. If anything this post-election stuff might scare them into drawing at least one legislative chamber as a slight D gerrymander. Dems can also redo NM-2, MD-1 and gain there.

In TX I think people forget how many Rs the GOP has to protect. It might have helped them had they lost a couple of seats and then just given the new Dems a vote sink. To protect every single R for a long time they will probably have to give Dems all 3 of the new seats.