Is Hawley's populist bet a good strategy?

[Barack Oganja]

Since arriving in Washington, Josh Hawley has worked to mold himself as a populist, working person's champion.

Yet posing as a down-home populist has been one of the keys to Hawley’s rise. One example: During his 2018 run for Senate, he faced a serious liability in the lawsuit that he and other Republican attorneys general filed to nullify the Affordable Care Act, which would have yanked protections for preexisting conditions away from all Americans. So he aired an ad claiming to be the guardian of those protections for families like his own: “We’ve got two perfect little boys. Just ask their momma.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/12/01/josh-hawley-shows-what-gop-politics-after-trump-will-look-like/

More recently, he's been teaming up with Bernie to get a stimulus check passed, a surefire way to boost his populist bonafides. It's no secret that Josh Hawley sees his path to the nomination as a socially conservative populist in the mold of Trump. Is this a good strategy for Hawley to win the nomination and presidency? Will voters in the primary and general respond favorably?

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

Rubio is also trying to do this.

[Mr.Phips]

This is definitely a smart strategy for Republicans.  It’s their economic views that have tended to trip them up in the past (see Mitt Romney).  This type of populism will help them hold on to WWC voters.

[Barack Oganja]

Rubio is also trying to do this.

Rubio is even less believable, at least Hawley is a newcomer

[SCNCmod]

Rubio is also trying to do this.

Rubio is even less believable, at least Hawley is a newcomer

Populist is a good strategy for Republican Primary, but charisma to deliver the message is also key.

Although Hawley has a window of opportunity to improve... he & Rubio seem to have 1 detriment in common- they have no charisma or connection in front of a big crowd. Almost sort of an anti-charisma.  Stated a sort of different way- Rubio is really good on paper or in theory- but the more the public gets to know him, the less appeal he seems to have.  (Time will tell if this is the case with Hawley or not).

That said, Hawley has the advantage of being the young, most photogenic Senator (something Rubio use to have, but has faded a bit with age)... which certainly gives candidates a leg up at the start.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Good strategy, the question is execution and tactics.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's a good strategy for Missouri.

Know what it's not a good strategy for? Winning back the suburbs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, and establishment Democrats have no answer to this.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's a good strategy for Missouri.

Know what it's not a good strategy for? Winning back the suburbs.

This implies that suburbanites are hard right on economic views (belied by their shift to Democrats) and don't like receiving stimulus checks. An economically move to the centre without Trump's baggage can easily win over both college educated suburbanites and working class voters-Boris Johnson's victory in the UK points to this.

[SCNCmod]

Yes, and establishment Democrats have no answer to this.

To the extent, this could end up being true- although being a 40-something Presidential candidate is usually an advantage in Dem Primaries, the opposite is true in Republican Presidential primaries.  Until this year, the basic rule has been that Dems only win modern elections when their candidate is early 50s or younger. Republican's win when their candidate is early 50s or older. (imo, partially bc older Republican voters have an affinity for older presidential candidates, whereas older Dem voters have an affinity for younger presidential candidates).

Also- If Haley & Hawley are both in the 2024 Presidential Primary... imo they will definitely split the necessary number of primary voters needed to get the nomination. (granted- I think Haley is politically savvy enough that she would at least try to get Hawley to stay out of the primary, and guarantee him her running mate spot if she gets the nomination).

[SCNCmod]

It's a good strategy for Missouri.

Know what it's not a good strategy for? Winning back the suburbs.

This implies that suburbanites are hard right on economic views (belied by their shift to Democrats) and don't like receiving stimulus checks. An economically move to the centre without Trump's baggage can easily win over both college educated suburbanites and working class voters-Boris Johnson's victory in the UK points to this.

I think it could mean that there is a chance suburbanites are more likely to be global-minded (treaties, etc) and free-trade minded.  Also- suburban women are likely to have a problem with social stances like Hawley only being willing to vote for a Supreme Ct nominee who would overturn Roe, etc.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's a good strategy for Missouri.

Know what it's not a good strategy for? Winning back the suburbs.

This implies that suburbanites are hard right on economic views (belied by their shift to Democrats) and don't like receiving stimulus checks. An economically move to the centre without Trump's baggage can easily win over both college educated suburbanites and working class voters-Boris Johnson's victory in the UK points to this.

I think it could mean that there is a chance suburbanites are more likely to be global-minded (treaties, etc) and free-trade minded.  Also- suburban women are likely to have a problem with social stances like Hawley only being willing to vote for a Supreme Ct nominee who would overturn Roe, etc.

^^  This is what I meant.

[H. Ross Peron]

It's a good strategy for Missouri.

Know what it's not a good strategy for? Winning back the suburbs.

This implies that suburbanites are hard right on economic views (belied by their shift to Democrats) and don't like receiving stimulus checks. An economically move to the centre without Trump's baggage can easily win over both college educated suburbanites and working class voters-Boris Johnson's victory in the UK points to this.

I think it could mean that there is a chance suburbanites are more likely to be global-minded (treaties, etc) and free-trade minded.  Also- suburban women are likely to have a problem with social stances like Hawley only being willing to vote for a Supreme Ct nominee who would overturn Roe, etc.

Hawley offers an improvement on Trump wrt to trade from a suburbanite perspective since he seems to prefer industrial policy to revive American manufacturing rather than the kneejerk protectionism of Trump, which I think will be more attractive to suburbanite voters. As for the social stances, that's baked into being a national Republican nominee. Nikki Haley, were she to win the nomination, will have to affirm that she will only appoint pro-life justices for example.

[lfromnj]

Rubio is also trying to do this.

His tweets are basically
#populsim but Republicans aren't socialist

#nukeVenezuela or admit Puerto Rico
#randompsalm from Bible.

[MABA 2020]

Going for the whole #populist thing makes him stand out amongst a sea of samey sounding white male republicans, so I'd say it's worth a punt. Otherwise he'd probably end up doing about as well as Rubio in 2016, a young fresh face but with nothing new to say. At least this way he can maybe carve out a little niche for himself.

[Red Velvet]

Rubio is also trying to do this.

Rubio doesn’t stick as a true populist though, it comes off as #tryinghard. Stuff like giving out more 3,3 Billion dollars yearly to Israel goes against the nationalist economic argument that populists have, that money should be invested internally to the country citizens instead, not wasted globally.

Not that there is a perfect populist who lives by their word in the US though. But Rubio doesn’t even seem to get it in order to play the role. Hawley is a better fit and was much smarter in working together with Bernie on a specific economic topic.

Economically leftism and social conservatism are stuff that usually please nationalists who argue in the defense of the country: Strong borders and less immigration, Defense of Tradition and local Identity, More investment of money internally towards domestic public services, Less investment globally in other countries, generally anti-war unless in real emergencies threatening the country sovereignty, prioritization of local small businesses over global monopolies and therefore more protectionist, the well-being of the nation as the priority, country above everything else, etc.

US was always very far from being a nationalist country, actually it’s much closer to the exact opposite. Thing is, people usually mix up Nationalism with Patriotism, which are very different. Patriotism derived from sentiments of superiority between countries/races and can encourage militarism/imperialism since it’s about showing your power to everyone. Patriotism attention is on the exterior and in the comparison and superiority over other nations. Nationalism attentions are on the inside and the well-being of the nation and its people, regardless of what happens internationally.

Hawley fits the nationalism and populism mold much better because he seems to understand its appeal better compared to other Republicans who are mostly, trained to be very patriotic but strongly anti-nationalist.

[Devils30]

Yes but it has risks. For all of its appeal to working class people, it might just hasten Georgia's move to solid blue and even make NC, TX lean D once those metro areas overwhelm the rest of the state by the end of the decade.

It also assumes the GOP has no more room to fall in places like WI, MI, PA. As I've said, I think assuming the GOP can't further regress in Waukesha, Ozaukee with this type of a party is a questionable assumption.

[President Johnson]

Yes, and establishment Democrats have no answer to this.

What answers do populists like Trump and Hawley have? Did he bring back the jobs he promised? Did he make coal great again? What did they do about China other than imposing some tariffs? A comprehensive strategy? I have to confess, I can't see it. All they have is tax breaks for the super wealthy, deregulation for big banks and denial about climate change.

The populism may a good strategy in the short term to win elections (not saying it will), but it doesn't solve the major problems, because they need more than a few tariffs and campaign slogans on a bumper sticker.

[Bootes Void]

Why do people think suburbanites are anti populist who love globalism, cultural liberalism and hate free money. This forum sometimes....

If anything I would say populism especially economic populism can play well in the suburbs

[OSR stands with Israel]

No cause DeSantis will easily take this lane , and even Rubio has a better chance of taking this lane as he has much better name recoginition

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes, and establishment Democrats have no answer to this.

What answers do populists like Trump and Hawley have? Did he bring back the jobs he promised? Did he make coal great again? What did they do about China other than imposing some tariffs? A comprehensive strategy? I have to confess, I can't see it. All they have is tax breaks for the super wealthy, deregulation for big banks and denial about climate change.

The populism may a good strategy in the short term to win elections (not saying it will), but it doesn't solve the major problems, because they need more than a few tariffs and campaign slogans on a bumper sticker.

Well you could make an argument that without the freedom caucus the tax plan would have been much more populist. Ryan and Trump had originally put in place a 20% Border Adjustment Tax to go along with the corporate tax cut but the freedom caucus killed that proposal.

https://taxfoundation.org/understanding-house-gop-border-adjustment/

Doing so would have made the Tax Reform close to Revenue Neutral too

[SCNCmod]

One example: During his 2018 run for Senate, he faced a serious liability in the lawsuit that he and other Republican attorneys general filed to nullify the Affordable Care Act, which would have yanked protections for preexisting conditions away from all Americans. So he aired an ad claiming to be the guardian of those protections...

More recently, he's been teaming up with Bernie to get a stimulus check passed, a surefire way to boost his populist bonafides. It's no secret that Josh Hawley sees his path to the nomination as a socially conservative populist in the mold of Trump.
------------------------------------------------------

I don't think simply acknowledging that the stimulus checks are currently needed- will be seen as all that hardcore of a populist stance (when taken with other stances)... considering every Dem is calling for it- but additionally, the overwhelming majority of economists are also calling for it.

Regarding the Affordable Care Act- Filling a lawsuit to end the ACA, then simply running an ad saying he is the protector of the provision contained in the ACA... will not fly with college-educated moderates. Also, pointing out that he sued to end the ACA will carry much more weight in the future than a campaign ad during his senate eleciton.

But to the extent that Hawley is positioning himself as a "socially conservative" populist in the mold of trump... this is likely to have very little appeal to Suburban women (which is the "democrat answer to "socially conservative" populism).

Any notion that Hawley's positions would find any appeal with suburban women seems completely flawed.  Hawley supported the border wall and family separation (which most Suburban women do not).  Hawley blasted the supreme ct decision that ruled against workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation & supports businesses being exempt from baking cakes for same-sex weddings etc (most suburban women see both stances as close-minded and out of date).  Hawley supported Trump's tariffs and is generally not a Free trader (Suburban women are not too concerned with manufacturing, and certainly not trying to create manufacturing jobs at the expense of free trade and emerging industries like green economy, etc).  Hawley said he would only vote for a SC Nominee that would overturn Roe (another X with Suburban women).  Suburban women began an exodus from Republicans even prior to Trump- due in large part to "socially conservative" populism, So I don't see how any of Hawley's positions really expand the map.

Back to the question, is this a good strategy for Hawley...
1) In the Primary- not a bad strategy, but the problem is there are other Republicans who will be able to out "socially conservative populism" him.
2) In the General- not a good strategy considering "socially conservative" populism is what in large part has turned off suburban women the past 4-8 years and cause them to defect to Dems. (many of these women would be considered prior "compassionate conservative" republicans or at the very least find themselves out of step with Socially conservative policies).