Miami Dade county is Safe R for 2024

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1337507587324063744

[Chips]

It might snap back a bit but I can't see it being more than D+13 or so. If Republicans have a really good night in 2024 it could flip R but I think it's more likely it flips in 2028.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Looks safe to me

[GALeftist]

All three of those tweets are dumb.

1. If this were the case we wouldn't have seen Democratic losses in Hispanic areas in cities and we would have seen more substantial losses in the rural black belt. No reason to think people are suddenly going to start primarily identifying as rural in the absence of evidence.

2. I mean, they might, 2012 -> 2016 showed us that sometimes a candidate really can have a pretty unique coalition. I think it's probably more likely than not that Miami-Dade keeps sliding right but you never know.

3. 90% -> 93%. Need I say more about the Lincoln Project?

[Alben Barkley]

All three of those tweets are dumb.

1. If this were the case we wouldn't have seen Democratic losses in Hispanic areas in cities and we would have seen more substantial losses in the rural black belt. No reason to think people are suddenly going to start primarily identifying as rural in the absence of evidence.

2. I mean, they might, 2012 -> 2016 showed us that sometimes a candidate really can have a pretty unique coalition. I think it's probably more likely than not that Miami-Dade keeps sliding right but you never know.

3. 90% -> 93%. Need I say more about the Lincoln Project?

For the last time, four years of Lincoln Project Republicans ceasing to identify as Republicans entirely makes that last number meaningless.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bitecofer is a joke, but Cunningham is definitely someone I’d trust.

[SnowLabrador]

I wouldn't call it Safe R for sure, but it's at best a Tossup for Democrats. Florida is fast becoming a Safe R state.

[_.]

A huge leap to go from "Republicans got a lot of new voters in 2020" to "Miami-Dade is safe R".

Even this year Biden won Miami-Dade by 9 points.

A more rational argument would be that Miami-Dade went from Safe D to Likely D.

[It’s so Joever]

As someone who saw the large Hispanic swings this year you guys are being a bit trend happy.
Yes Cubans will stay GOP friendly, the Clinton numbers were a fluke, however, they aren’t the new Elliot County voters.
I think Cubans are one of the few single issue/theme voters left in this country and Biden was smeared literally everywhere in their local media. Plus...Miami-Dade is not all Cuban. The county still has a sizeable black and white suburbanite population.
Trends will continue at an accelerated rate in places such as Zapata County for sure, but no Miami-Dade isn’t flipping.

[DrScholl]

The non-Hispanic White vote is less Republican than the Cuban vote and there is still a substantial black vote. I think conservatives are getting way ahead of themselves.

[_.]

The non-Hispanic White vote is less Republican than the Cuban vote and there is still a substantial black vote. I think conservatives are getting way ahead of themselves.

This will be a fun thread to laugh at after 2024 for sure. Republicans aren't getting their 30 point landslide in Miami-Dade anytime soon (or even a win).

[Chips]

The non-Hispanic White vote is less Republican than the Cuban vote and there is still a substantial black vote. I think conservatives are getting way ahead of themselves.

This will be a fun thread to laugh at after 2024 for sure. Republicans aren't getting their 30 point landslide in Miami-Dade anytime soon (or even a win).

I think it could flip in 2028 if Republicans have a good year there as I personally think they will.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The non-Hispanic White vote is less Republican than the Cuban vote and there is still a substantial black vote. I think conservatives are getting way ahead of themselves.

This will be a fun thread to laugh at after 2024 for sure. Republicans aren't getting their 30 point landslide in Miami-Dade anytime soon (or even a win).

This is a fun thread to laugh at now, since it’s a joke thread and everyone is missing that.

[Hope For A New Era]

3. 90% -> 93%. Need I say more about the Lincoln Project?

Bitecofer is a whole lot more than Lincoln Project. Actually, I'm not sure exactly why she was associated with them, as they basically go against her entire theory of elections (their goal was persuasion, which she has declared dead during our current polarization level).

[Catalunya]

I know I’m in the minority, but I think what happened in the RGV will also not be permanent. The region will swing hard D in 2024 (though not as hard of a swing as in 2024) when the people there realize that their fears about Democrats destroying their jobs did not come true.

[MATTROSE94]

I know I’m in the minority, but I think what happened in the RGV will also not be permanent. The region will swing hard D in 2024 (though not as hard of a swing as in 2024) when the people there realize that their fears about Democrats destroying their jobs did not come true.

That’ll tighten up Texas quite a bit, though I still have Ron DeSantis winning the state 51-48 in 2024 (against Kamala Harris) and 53-45 in 2028 (against AOC).

[lfromnj]

Im not saying its actually Safe R
Im making fun of Bitecofer and saying anything she does will probably help the GOP.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Bitecofer herself is a joke, so none of her takes should be treated seriously.

She had MO-4 as Likely R and NY-21 as tossup - what else do I have to say?

[Hope For A New Era]

Bitecofer herself is a joke, so none of her takes should be treated seriously.

She had MO-4 as Likely R and NY-21 as tossup - what else do I have to say?

That's the one I didn't understand. I would have loved to see Hartzler go, but I have no idea what in her mind makes MO-04 different from all of the other similar districts.

[The Houstonian]

Massive hyperbole

[EscapeFromNY2020]

Seems like a tossup. It's a bright spot for Republicans no doubt, but still have to consider it hasn't gone to them since 1988.