Louisiana as a future swing state?

[Alben Barkley]

Am I crazy to think that maybe Louisiana has a better chance of becoming a swingy Southern state before stubbornly inelastic states like South Carolina and Mississippi?

Seems like the GOP potentially has a lot of room to fall in populous parishes like East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, and Caddo.

I'm not saying this is something that's gonna happen overnight or really any time soon, but is there even a chance it happens before those other states at least?

[Squidward500]

Have you ever been to Louisiana?

Yeah that will never happen

[If my soul was made of stone]

Many of the state's smaller metros (Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe) have stagnated or are still swinging and trending R as they have been since at least 2000. Jefferson seems like the only GOP parish that could reasonably flip anytime soon, as all the other fairly urbanized parishes are either still losing Dem support (as with the above) or are such blowouts that even big trends barely dent them (Bossier, St. Tammany). I agree that the GOP still has plenty of room to fall in metropolitan areas if current trends continue, but I don't think it'll be enough without a stronger baseline elsewhere. As much as Georgia's blue trend is attributed almost solely to Metro Atlanta, those trends would be meaningless if smaller metros such as Savannah or Augusta voted like Lafayette or Lake Charles, or even the red-leaning smaller metros such as Valdosta or Warner Robins, which now at least give Democrats 40%.

[Neptunium]

Am I crazy to think that maybe Louisiana has a better chance of becoming a swingy Southern state before stubbornly inelastic states like South Carolina and Mississippi?

Seems like the GOP potentially has a lot of room to fall in populous parishes like East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, and Caddo.

I'm not saying this is something that's gonna happen overnight or really any time soon, but is there even a chance it happens before those other states at least?

Do you think that RI will be a future swing state?

[RINO Tom]

I think you guys really underestimate how hard of a floor there might be with Southern suburbanites.  All they're doing is reverting to the "norm" of America and becoming more of a swing demographic like their Northern counterparts.  Even if the GOP literally moves to the left of Josh Hawley on economics and becomes this "working class" party, you're still going to have a VERY high percent of Evangelical voters in these suburbs who are simply Republicans first AND educated suburbanites.

[Squidward500]

Am I crazy to think that maybe Louisiana has a better chance of becoming a swingy Southern state before stubbornly inelastic states like South Carolina and Mississippi?

Seems like the GOP potentially has a lot of room to fall in populous parishes like East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, and Caddo.

I'm not saying this is something that's gonna happen overnight or really any time soon, but is there even a chance it happens before those other states at least?

Do you think that RI will be a future swing state?

LA has gone from R+10 to R+12
RI has gone from D+11 to D+8.

Although providence, Newport, and Bristol are too blue to really make it another NH/ME
type New England swing state. It will get closer, but unless the Hispanic realignment accelerates fast, RI is in the D column until atleast 2035

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think you guys really underestimate how hard of a floor there might be with Southern suburbanites.  All they're doing is reverting to the "norm" of America and becoming more of a swing demographic like their Northern counterparts.  Even if the GOP literally moves to the left of Josh Hawley on economics and becomes this "working class" party, you're still going to have a VERY high percent of Evangelical voters in these suburbs who are simply Republicans first AND educated suburbanites.

Yeah, suburbs in the South have huge numbers of evangelicals.  In addition to my main church, I go to a young adults (20s) ministry at a church in Williamson County.  On any Friday night, there are probably 100-200 people there, and there's always social time as well, so I've gotten to know tons of people.  Plus, people will gather for social events outside of Friday nights or our organized Monday Bible study too.  Occasionally, conversations veer into politics.  Not one person has ever even suggested that they were supporting Biden or offered left-leaning views, and this is a young crowd in the suburbs.  Maybe there are a couple quiet Democrats, but there is still a very high floor in Southern suburbia, unless Republicans do something to alienate evangelical Christians.

[forsythvoter]

I don't think so, without a party realignment. In addition to all the points about the social conservatism of the state, a lot of the state's economy is tied to oil, which I can't really see ever bouncing back to it's heyday a few decades ago, now that alternative energy sources are much more competitive economically. And we know that areas with natural-resource based economies in recent elections have trended R.

The next Southern State to enter into competitive territory imo (I'm assuming TX, FL, GA, NC are already competitive) is far more likely to be SC. I wouldn't expect SC to be competitive during this decade but there's a decent amount of migration along the Coast in areas like Hilton Head and Charleston, and as cities like Greenville and Columbia orient more around tech / healthcare, we may see trends similar to the ones we saw in cities like Richmond and the smaller GA metros. The big suburbs there (York, Spartanburg and Lexington) are also areas to pay attention to.

[Alben Barkley]

I think you guys really underestimate how hard of a floor there might be with Southern suburbanites.  All they're doing is reverting to the "norm" of America and becoming more of a swing demographic like their Northern counterparts.  Even if the GOP literally moves to the left of Josh Hawley on economics and becomes this "working class" party, you're still going to have a VERY high percent of Evangelical voters in these suburbs who are simply Republicans first AND educated suburbanites.

Younger generations are less religious though, which is why I think that floor might collapse in the future. Not necessarily within the next 10-15 years, but 20+? Maybe...

[It’s so Joever]

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

[DabbingSanta]

It's not going to happen.  Look at the 2019 gubernatorial race, which was a very narrow Dem victory, and try and replicate that result in a presidential year.  They would need to make serious gains in the Delta and narrow the GOP margins across the entire state.  It's seriously hard to imagine a realistic scenario where this would happen.

2019: 51-49 Dem win



2020: 58-40 Rep win

[DINGO Joe]

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

What makes you think Urban black voters in NOLA swung R?

[It’s so Joever]

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

What makes you think Urban black voters in NOLA swung R?

Not swung, will swing.
Big difference.

[DINGO Joe]

SC is obviously more likely as the East Coastopolis continues to grow. 

Black turnout was quite poor this year in Louisiana especially in comparison to white turnout (74.47 vs 63.09)  the closest white/black turnout was 2012 (69.4 vs 67.2)  So you'd need something close to parity plus the map Dabbing Santa posted for an outside chance.  Very unlikely.

[DINGO Joe]

And what if Democrats start making inroads with evangelicals?
Quote me on this in ten years, evangelicals will start looking a lot more Democratic than they do now (Dems will lose them by less)

That being said LA probably will not be a swing state because of the rurals and Urban black voters in NOLA swinging R.

What makes you think Urban black voters in NOLA swung R?

Not swung, will swing.
Big difference.

Meh, dubious.  And New Orleans at least from a voting stand point may not be as black as you think it is.

[Red Wall]

It trended R this year so no

[pbrower2a]

If Louisiana gets a large Hispanic population (overflow of Mexican-Americans from Texas?)

[Never Made it to Graceland]

If Louisiana gets a large Hispanic population (overflow of Mexican-Americans from Texas?)

Ah, yes, treating Hispanic voters as a plug-and-play monolith is working great for the Democrats so far.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No, and even if it trends left, the GOP would have adapted. I think there's more room for GOP expansion among younger Afro-Americans.

[Chips]

Doubtful.

[Lechasseur]

Many of the state's smaller metros (Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe) have stagnated or are still swinging and trending R as they have been since at least 2000. Jefferson seems like the only GOP parish that could reasonably flip anytime soon, as all the other fairly urbanized parishes are either still losing Dem support (as with the above) or are such blowouts that even big trends barely dent them (Bossier, St. Tammany). I agree that the GOP still has plenty of room to fall in metropolitan areas if current trends continue, but I don't think it'll be enough without a stronger baseline elsewhere. As much as Georgia's blue trend is attributed almost solely to Metro Atlanta, those trends would be meaningless if smaller metros such as Savannah or Augusta voted like Lafayette or Lake Charles, or even the red-leaning smaller metros such as Valdosta or Warner Robins, which now at least give Democrats 40%.

Yeah exactly, and in Louisiana people more switched to the GOP outside of metro New Orleans due to the culture wars, but I don't believe they're really into the small government stuff the way that Republicans in other places are.

If anything, I think the GOP is becoming a better and better fit for Louisiana, and if anything the state will become more solidly Republican.

[Lechasseur]

SC is obviously more likely as the East Coastopolis continues to grow. 

Black turnout was quite poor this year in Louisiana especially in comparison to white turnout (74.47 vs 63.09)  the closest white/black turnout was 2012 (69.4 vs 67.2)  So you'd need something close to parity plus the map Dabbing Santa posted for an outside chance.  Very unlikely.

Exactly

The only states in the South I can realistically see flipping in the medium term (I don't think there are any in the short term unless the GOP put up an atrocious nominee) are TX and SC.

I actually think SC flips before TX. SC just needs more suburban whites to flip, while the problem in TX is it isn't just African Americans and Whites, you also have Hispanics who seem to be trending Republican, so I think that will offset suburban white trends long enough for SC to flip first.

No other state in the South is flipping anytime soon.

[kwabbit]

Yes, younger Whites in LA are voting less Republican than their older counterparts, but younger Blacks are also voting less Democratic than their older counterparts as well. In the end, states like MS and LA, even though they have high Black populations, are just not going to vote Democratic in this party system. Contrary to Atlas expectations, they have even trended R post-Obama. Perhaps if NOLA or Jackson became booming cities that attracted droves of White Northeast liberal transplants like Atlanta has done then they could flip but if they continue to have slow population growth then they'll remain solid R at the federal level for a long time.

[Central Lake]

I don't think so. Besides AZ, GA, TX, NC, and FL, the state that is most likely going blue is South Carolina.

[Sol]

If Louisiana gets a large Hispanic population (overflow of Mexican-Americans from Texas?)

Ah, yes, treating Hispanic voters as a plug-and-play monolith is working great for the Democrats so far.

Well, and as we know Mexican americans will "overflow" from TX? wth does that mean