“Land doesn’t vote” maps

[butWhyNot?]

Missouri 2016 primary by congressional district

[Storr]

Sabato’s latest entry has a lot of these.




https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-mid-decade-redistrictings-saved-the-democratic-house-majority/

I forgot just how ugly Pennsylvania's pre-2018 PA Supreme Court ordered redistricting Congressional map was. Alas, I am greatly more familiarized with North Carolina's pre-Common Cause v. Lewis (2019) 'Pub-mander NUT map.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Schleswig-Holstein Landtagswahl 2012:

CDU: 30.8%
SPD: 30.4%

What makes the map so astonishing is the fact that it's not a county map, but a constituency map, i.e. each district contains roughly the same number of inhabitants.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Hillary won the primary by a mere 1.14%:

The CD map is even crazier:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2019 Uruguayan presidential election. The runoff (shown on the right) looks like a potential landslide for Partido Nacional candidate Luis Lacalle Pou, whereas in fact he only won 50.79% - 49.21%.

[Sol]

Hillary won the primary by a mere 1.14%:

The CD map is even crazier:

This map is also funny because it looks like it vaguely could have been a map from an alternate 2020, where red is Bernie.

[Bacon King]

bumping this thread because it's cool

Nevada is the best for this, here's another way to visualize it:

The red region is every county won by Trump in 2020
The blue region is enough to wipe out Trump's lead in the red region

(i.e. Biden's vote margin in the blue area is greater than Trump's vote margin in the red area)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD: 25.7% | CDU/CSU: 24.1% | Grüne: 14.8% | FDP: 11.5% | AfD: 10.3%

[Mr. Illini]

1980 Pres, the Republican won

[Mr. Illini]

Another from 1980, Reagan won Alabama

[Vosem]

Delaware is an interesting contender for this topic.
In a three-way race, a candidate can win statewide without winning any of its three counties.

In the 2004 Democratic primary in MO-2, Russ Carnahan won by coming second or third in every county, while all the other candidates had strongly localized patterns of support: https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=4874

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In the 2004 Democratic primary in MO-2, Russ Carnahan won by coming second or third in every county, while all the other candidates had strongly localized patterns of support: https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=4874

He even came only third in St. Louis County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another from 1980, Reagan won Alabama

Clear pattern here: Reagan won narrow wins in many Southern states off basis of big wins in heavily white exurban wealthy counties.

[Smarty]

Wisconsin Senate GOP primary 2018

Vukmir won despite getting crushed everywhere outside the Southeast.

[Skill and Chance]

Another from 1980, Reagan won Alabama

Clear pattern here: Reagan won narrow wins in many Southern states off basis of big wins in heavily white exurban wealthy counties.

Cumulatively, Carter had a Trump-sized EC bias in his favor in 1980.  Reagan had to win nationwide by 3ish to take the EC.

[Skill and Chance]

Hillary won the primary by a mere 1.14%:

The CD map is even crazier:

This map is also funny because it looks like it vaguely could have been a map from an alternate 2020, where red is Bernie.

This IMO is the best argument against New Mexico trending hard right in the future.  The cities really can dominate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another from 1980, Reagan won Alabama

Clear pattern here: Reagan won narrow wins in many Southern states off basis of big wins in heavily white exurban wealthy counties.

Cumulatively, Carter had a Trump-sized EC bias in his favor in 1980.  Reagan had to win nationwide by 3ish to take the EC.

It's quite like 2004. Republican piles up the votes in Western states, leaving the (Midwestern) tipping-point state D-leaning.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Another from 1980, Reagan won Alabama

Clear pattern here: Reagan won narrow wins in many Southern states off basis of big wins in heavily white exurban wealthy counties.

Cumulatively, Carter had a Trump-sized EC bias in his favor in 1980.  Reagan had to win nationwide by 3ish to take the EC.

Nope the Tipping Point State was 1.81 points to the left of the nation in 1980 while in 2016 it was 2.86 points to the right and in 2020 3.82 points to the right.

Even Obama's advantage in 2008 is bigger where the tipping point state voted 2.25 points to the left of the nation.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=395621.0

[If my soul was made of stone]

1968 Presidential in MD:



Nixon and Wallace cannibalized one another extremely efficiently, and in the chaos HHH even carried typically Republican Calvert County with a 37% plurality.

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1912 Washington gubernatorial election



Ernest Lister (Democrat): 30.5%
Marion E. Hay (Republican): 30.4%
Robert T. Hodge (Progressive): 24.4%
Anna A. Maley (Socialist): 11.7%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2022 Democratic Tennessee gubernatorial primary



Jason Martin: 39.39%
J.B. Smiley Jr.: 38.81%
Carnita Atwater: 21.81%

Martin won the primary, of course, but looking at the county result map, one could gain the impression that he would have won in a landslide, while in fact he eked out a victory by a mere 0.6%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2022 Democratic Tennessee gubernatorial election



Jason Martin: 39.39%
J.B. Smiley Jr.: 38.81%
Carnita Atwater: 21.81%

Martin won the primary, of course, but looking at the county result map, one could gain the impression that he would have won in a landslide, while in fact he eked out a victory by a mere 0.6%.

Comes to show how many D primary voters come from Shelby alone.

[Adam Griffin]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This is a map that slightly differs from the other "landmass doesn't vote" maps:



Try to take a guess at what percentage the nominee represented by the red hues received.

PS: I wish I could have linked a map from our huge map vault that is easier on the eyes. Alas, none of our map nerds have created a map for this primary yet. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Dr. MB]

Australia has some pretty extreme examples of this.



In 2019 the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party won a grand total of 3 seats in the New South Wales legislature but a solid majority of its land area. Most of the rest of the land area went to the Nationals who came third in the seat total after the Liberals and Labor.