A Future for Outsiders

[Agonized-Statism]

With the exception of George H. W. Bush, every winning candidate since Nixon has been sold as an outsider. Carter was the obscure purehearted Evangelical, Reagan was the patriotic actor forsaken by the establishment with a revolutionary small government plan, Clinton was "the Boy Governor" from the backwoods, W. arguably ran a more populist, Carter-esque campaign than Gore or Kerry, Obama was the young and inexperienced progressive with a trendy smartphone, Trump was the apolitical businessman. Biden- sold as an insider who's here to return the country to competence- is a notable exception from this trend, which started as a reaction to Watergate and dissatisfaction with the New Dealers. Will America still have an appetite for outsiders going forward?

Keep in mind I'm not singing these people's praises nor arguing that they're actual political outsiders. I don't actually think there's such a thing.

[RINO Tom]

People will point to this as wishful thinking, but I think most of the "outsider" push on the GOP side is due to those in the Baby Boomer generation - rightfully or wrongly thinking that a relatively good America that they had a help in creating is under existential threat from cultural liberalism and socialism - drawing a line in the sand and effectively threatening the GOP's NEAR TERM survival.  A 65-year old Republican voter might be the absolute poster child for "angry White male Republican," but he is going to be incredibly old or maybe deceased by the 2040 election.

Just as the slow passing of the New Deal Generation had a slow but unmistakable effect on the cultural attitudes of the Democratic Party, I predict you will see a similar thing happen with the passing of the Baby Boomer Republicans, allowing the GOP's cultural image to shift to one defined as SIGNIFICANTLY more tolerant.  People for some reason cannot read this prediction without thinking I'm saying the GOP will become a "socially liberal, fiscally conservative party," but I'm not saying that at all ... but we are effectively seeing the Reagan Generation of GOPers defiantly revolting against a changing society, and Trump was the epitome of that. 

I see little evidence that Republicans under 40 care about the same set of issues, and from my anecdotal experience they see the GOP more as a mechanism for preserving the positive aspects of the free market (this doesn't mean they can't be more "populist" than Paul Ryan...), the positive aspects of traditional cultural attitudes against SJWism (this doesn't mean they have to have xenophobic/racist/sexist tendencies, simply that they are skeptical of the new cultural left) and generally preserving "freedom" even if it comes at the expense of tackling inequality.

All this is to say that I actually think Democratic nominees will be MORE of an "outsider" in appeal in the 2030s and 2040s as a younger generation skeptical of the old guard comes of age, and the GOP transitions more into preserving the status quo again.  Honestly, I simply see the Democratic Party as about 10-15 years behind the Republican Party when it comes to a hostile takeover.

[Person Man]

People will point to this as wishful thinking, but I think most of the "outsider" push on the GOP side is due to those in the Baby Boomer generation - rightfully or wrongly thinking that a relatively good America that they had a help in creating is under existential threat from cultural liberalism and socialism - drawing a line in the sand and effectively threatening the GOP's NEAR TERM survival.  A 65-year old Republican voter might be the absolute poster child for "angry White male Republican," but he is going to be incredibly old or maybe deceased by the 2040 election.

Just as the slow passing of the New Deal Generation had a slow but unmistakable effect on the cultural attitudes of the Democratic Party, I predict you will see a similar thing happen with the passing of the Baby Boomer Republicans, allowing the GOP's cultural image to shift to one defined as SIGNIFICANTLY more tolerant.  People for some reason cannot read this prediction without thinking I'm saying the GOP will become a "socially liberal, fiscally conservative party," but I'm not saying that at all ... but we are effectively seeing the Reagan Generation of GOPers defiantly revolting against a changing society, and Trump was the epitome of that. 

I see little evidence that Republicans under 40 care about the same set of issues, and from my anecdotal experience they see the GOP more as a mechanism for preserving the positive aspects of the free market (this doesn't mean they can't be more "populist" than Paul Ryan...), the positive aspects of traditional cultural attitudes against SJWism (this doesn't mean they have to have xenophobic/racist/sexist tendencies, simply that they are skeptical of the new cultural left) and generally preserving "freedom" even if it comes at the expense of tackling inequality.

All this is to say that I actually think Democratic nominees will be MORE of an "outsider" in appeal in the 2030s and 2040s as a younger generation skeptical of the old guard comes of age, and the GOP transitions more into preserving the status quo again.  Honestly, I simply see the Democratic Party as about 10-15 years behind the Republican Party when it comes to a hostile takeover.

Could this be hastened if the Republican Party does win big with someone not Trump in 2024? Especially with their potential to have one of the longest running Senate majority in Republican history by 2030. Any other other major contender would be considered “establishment”. Even someone like DeSantis and Cruz. Ironically especially because DeSantis, even if he ran as a National Populist. Florida is that 15 years ahead in the solidification of the “boomer establishment “.  It would then be not mistakable that there is this “establishment” that is arguably the largest concentration of wealth and power the nation has ever seen.

The last time we had an establishment like this was the New Deal Establishment in the 60’s and before that, the Industrial Establishment of the 20s (which looks a lot like the GOP establishment of today).

[darklordoftech]

I think being out of power for 8 years results in a party nominating an “outsider”.