Georgia flips pretty solidly blue in the 2020s and early 2030s, but there is still an ultraconservative base comprising 45% of the population. Somehow or another, an actual movement that leads to conservatives leaving the state forms in the 2030s. The 2040 election features an extremely popular Republican incumbent who holds most Trump 2020 voters, but also wins a majority of Hispanics and regains upscale college-educated white voters (but not downscale whites with a degree). However, this Republican president doesn't do well with the black community or secular, non-wealthy whites from New England. Because so many conservatives have left Georgia, even improvements with remaining moderates in suburban Atlanta aren't enough for Georgia to flip back Republican. The Republican wins 48 states, losing Georgia and Vermont (plus DC).
The only question left is why Maryland flips.
