2020 PVIs (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 PVIs  (Read 3658 times)
Epaminondas
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Posts: 1,753
« on: January 08, 2021, 05:17:32 AM »
Quote from: Squidward500 on December 09, 2020, 01:42:05 PM
I’ve calculated out the state wide PVIs following the election.

Great work Squidward.

Do you just use presidential results, or also statewide when applicable?
I'm a bit puzzled by Montana R+11 when it's gone Trump +20 and +15
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Epaminondas
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Posts: 1,753
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2021, 01:39:11 PM »
Quote from: Annatar on January 08, 2021, 05:44:07 AM
PVI is calculated using the 2 party vote share in the state vs the nation not the margin.
Fine, so
2016: Montana Trump+20.5, Nation Clinton +2.1, Difference Trump+22.6
2020: Montana Trump +16.4, nation Biden +4.5, Difference Trump +20.9

Where does the +11 come from? Do we take Bullock's 2016 run into account?
(And using 2-party share accentuates the discrepancy further)
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Epaminondas
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Posts: 1,753
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2021, 05:58:18 PM »
I understand now, the metric is the swing required.

I wasn't missing much: the answer is just that PVI for Montana is
(20.9+22.6)/4 = 10.875 ~ 11

Hence R+11.

Wyoming's R+26 is absolutely insurmountable.
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