2020 PVIs

[Squidward500]

Hello everyone!!!
I just joined today looking for an outlet for my political side to avoid letting that get in the way of my personal life.

But anyway, with all states certified, I’ve calculated out the state wide PVIs following the election. If any of you want to contribute district level PVIs, that would be cool. For those of you who don’t know; PVI is calculated by taking the 2 cycle 2 party average share of the vote in each state and comparing it to the national average, which in this case is 51.7-48.3 in favor of the Dems. A state that’s split 50/50 perfectly would thus have PVI of R+1.7 (or simply R+2) meaning it’s 2 points to the right of the national average. Generally anything between R+4 and D+2 I consider competitive although some exceptions can be made based on trends such as VA going left and FL going right.

2020 PVI (change from 16. + for more R; - for more D)

AL- R+15 (+1)
AK- R+8 (-1)
AZ- R+2 (-3)
AR- R+16 (+2)
CA- D+14 (-2)
CO- D+3 (-2)
CT- D+7 (-1)
DE- D+6 (0)
FL- R+3 (+1)
GA- R+3 (-2)
HI- D+14 (+4)
ID- R+19 (0)
IL- D+7 (0)
IN- R+11 (+2)
IA- R+6 (+3)
KS- R+11 (-1)
KY- R+16 (+1)
LA- R+12 (+2)
ME- D+2 (+1)
MD- D+14 (-2)
MA- D+14 (-2)
MI- R+1 (+2)
MN- D+1 (0)
MS- R+10 (+1)
MO- R+11 (+2)
MT- R+11 (0)
NE- R+13 (-1)
NV- EVEN (+1)
NH- EVEN (0)
NJ- D+6 (+1)
NM- D+3 (0)
NY- D+10 (+1)
NC- R+3 (0)
ND- R+20 (+3)
OH- R+6 (+3)
OK- R+20 (0)
OR- D+6 (-1)
PA- R+2 (+2)
RI- D+8 (+3)
SC- R+8 (0)
SD- R+16 (+2)
TN- R+14 (0)
TX- R+5 (-3)
UT- R+13 (-7)
VT- D+15 (0)
VA- D+2 (-1)
WA- D+8 (-1)
WV- R+23 (+4)
WI- R+2 (+2)
WY- R+26 (+1)

[Roll Roons]

Kind of crazy that Iowa and Ohio are as Republican as New Jersey and Oregon are Democratic.

[neostassenite31]

I know that Cook Political Report typically does the CDs the spring following each presidential election after the house clerk tabulates the official stats, but because the districts will all be redrawn I'm not sure if they're going to wait until after redistricting this year  

[Squidward500]

I know that Cook Political Report typically does the CDs the spring following each presidential election after the house clerk tabulates the official stats, but because the districts will all be redrawn I'm not sure if they're going to wait until after redistricting this year  

Yeah I’d imagine they’ll ignore it since these lines are now only relevant for special elections. Personally though I’m just a fan of data points so I’m going to calculate a few when I get home later as a “FINAL PVI” point. I’ll start with the small states and the only ones im really interested to see are how divergent ME is, plus NE’s 2nd, and what’s going on with RI-2

[Squidward500]

District level. (Figures calculated. Thanks to DKE elections)

ME-1: D+8 (nc)
ME-2: R+6 (+4)


NH-1: R+1 (-1)
NH-2: D+1 (+1)

ME has become even more differentiated as the 2nd has gone further right. NH had both move one digit toward the middle, possibly due to left trending areas in 1 (W Manch burbs) and right trending areas in 2 (Coos/Sullivan) offsetting. ME redistricting will be a least change map. Expect NH GOP to add Coos to 1, add in red border towns, and drop Manchester

WV-1: R+22
WV-2: R+20
WV-3: R+27

NE-1: R+11
NE-2: R+1
NE-3: R+30

NV-1: D+12
NV-2: R+8
NV-3: R+2
NV-4: D+1

IA-1: R+4
IA-2: R+4
IA-3: R+2
IA-4: R+16

MS-1: R+18
MS-2: D+13
MS-3: R+13
MS-4: R+22

[Squidward500]

Here’s Wisconsin, which had a few wild swings at the district level

WI-1: R+7
WI-2: D+18
WI-3: R+4
WI-4: D+25
WI-5: R+11
WI-6: R+10
WI-7: R+12
WI-8: R+10

The NW rural district has dislodged Waukesha/Suburban Milwaukee based WI5 as the reddest in the state. Meanwhile, WI-1, formerly held by Paul Ryan has shifted from R+1 to R+7 over the course of 8 years

UT-1: R+20
UT-2: R+10
UT-3: R+17
UT-4: R+6

OK-1: R+15
OK-2: R+29
OK-3: R+29
OK-4: R+20
OK-5: R+7

MA-1: D+10
MA-2: D+10
MA-3: D+12
MA-4: D+13
MA-5: D+23
MA-6: D+10
MA-7: D+35
MA-8: D+14
MA-9: D+6

AR-1: R+22
AR-2: R+7
AR-3: R+17
AR-4: R+20

SC-1: R+7
SC-2: R+9
SC-3: R+21
SC-4: R+14
SC-5: R+11
SC-6: D+17
SC-7: R+11

[Squidward500]

Big one down tonight. Here’s Ohio. Tim Ryan’s “vote sink” looks anything but now. Actually a bit of a dummymander by OH republicans now (yes I know mahoning was super blue in 2010)

OH-1: R+5
OH-2: R+9
OH-3: D+19
OH-4: R+20
OH-5: R+15
OH-6: R+24
OH-7: R+18
OH-8: R+19
OH-9: D+9
OH-10: R+5
OH-11: D+30
OH-12: R+6
OH-13: D+1
OH-14: R+7
OH-15: R+9
OH-16: R+10

[neostassenite31]

I'll do my home state (with some annotations). Also a pretty extensive dissection of MN's recent political transformation in the process

MN-1: R+8 (Walz's old district, votes like Iowa: R+1 after '12; R+5 after '16)

MN-2: EVEN (Mix of suburb/exurban/rural all-in-one: R+2 after both '12 and '16)

MN-3: D+6 (Former GOP stronghold in western Hennepin: R+2 after '12; D+2 after '16)

MN-4: D+16 (St. Paul is boring: D+11 after '12; D+14 after '16)

MN-5: D+29 (Ilhan Omar's district: D+22 after '12; D+26 after '16)

MN-6: R+14 (Bachmann's old exurban district: R+10 after '12; R+12 after '16)

MN-7: R+17 (The fall of Collin Peterson, votes like ND/SD: R+6 after '12; R+12 after '16)

MN-8: R+10 (Dramatic fall of former DFL strongholds in the northeast: D+1 after '12; R+4 after '16)

In short, the Twin Cities and Greater Minnesota are going in diametrically opposite directions. It's almost like one is looking at two separate states.

[Squidward500]

I'll do my home state (with some annotations). Also a pretty extensive dissection of MN's recent political transformation in the process

MN-1: R+8 (Walz's old district, votes like Iowa: R+1 after '12; R+5 after '16)

MN-2: EVEN (Mix of suburb/exurban/rural all-in-one: R+2 after both '12 and '16)

MN-3: D+6 (Former GOP stronghold in western Hennepin: R+2 after '12; D+2 after '16)

MN-4: D+16 (St. Paul is boring: D+11 after '12; D+14 after '16)

MN-5: D+29 (Ilhan Omar's district: D+22 after '12; D+26 after '16)

MN-6: R+14 (Bachmann's old exurban district: R+10 after '12; R+12 after '16)

MN-7: R+17 (The fall of Collin Peterson, votes like ND/SD: R+6 after '12; R+12 after '16)

MN-8: R+10 (Dramatic fall of former DFL strongholds in the northeast: D+1 after '12; R+4 after '16)

In short, the Twin Cities and Greater Minnesota are going in diametrically opposite directions. It's almost like one is looking at two separate states.

Thanks for your contribution! I wasn’t able to find MN’s numbers anywhere so you saved me a lot of time! It’s seriously amazing to see MN1 and 8 go from roughly even to GOP strongholds in such a short time. Ditto with seeing Erik Paulsen’s old turf go from red and safe R on the congressional level to as blue as Delaware in such a short time. It’s kinda weird seeing the 2016 house map with 3 republicans bunched in and the 3 big districts outstate being blue. Also, MN-2 is the first even one to show up. (Although NH1 And OH13 were very close)

Im working on a map and I added in your MN. I just finished Texas, and I’ll bang out a few more states before I crash.

[SingingAnalyst]

Kind of crazy that Iowa and Ohio are as Republican as New Jersey and Oregon are Democratic.

True, especially since in 1988, NJ was the most Republican of the 4, while IA was the most Democratic.

[Squidward500]

More big states

TX1: R+25
TX2: R+5
TX3: R+6
TX4: R+28
TX5: R+15
TX6: R+6
TX7: D+1
TX8: R+25
TX9: D+27
TX10: R+5
TX11: R+32
TX12: R+15
TX13: R+33
TX14: R+12
TX15: D+3
TX16: D+18
TX17: R+9
TX18: D+26
TX19: R+26
TX20: D+13
TX21: R+5
TX22: R+4
TX23: R+1
TX24: R+2
TX25: R+8
TX26: R+12
TX27: R+14
TX28: D+5
TX29: D+18
TX30: D+29
TX31: R+6
TX32: D+1
TX33: D+23
TX34: D+5
TX35: D+17
TX36: R+26

MI1: R+12
MI2: R+9
MI3: R+5
MI4: R+14
MI5: EVEN
MI6: R+5
MI7. R+10
MI8: R+4
MI9: D+4
MI10: R+18
MI11: R+2
MI12: D+13
MI13: D+29
MI14: D+29

VA1: R+6
VA2: R+1
VA3: D+16
VA4: D+10
VA5: R+7
VA6: R+14
VA7: R+3
VA8: D+27
VA9: R+23
VA10: D+6
VA11: D+19

WA1: D+8
WA2: D+11
WA3: R+5
WA4: R+13
WA5: R+8
WA6: D+6
WA7: D+35
WA8: D+1
WA9: D+23
WA10: D+6

[Minnesota Mike]

PVI is a flawed metric that assumes the two major parties natural state is equal in the presidential popular vote. This is not true. A non adjusted average spread over the past couple elections is a far better metric. 

[kwabbit]

PVI is a flawed metric that assumes the two major parties natural state is equal in the presidential popular vote. This is not true. A non adjusted average spread over the past couple elections is a far better metric. 

PVI is a good metric because it exists in a vacuum, independent of the cyclical nature of politics. If you took an average after 2016 for the previous 4 cycles, then the Republicans seem like they are perhaps the majority party. If you took it after 2012, then the Democrats are. The Democrats are the larger party, but if you average the last 20 years, including midterms, they only get about 1% more than Republicans.

PVI doesn't just exist in Presidential years. If 2022 GCB is R+4 or something like that, being like "Democrats have won WI by 2 on average over the past 3 Presidential Elections" isn't helpful when Trump barely lost in a D+4 year.

[Coastal Elitist]

So you take the presidential vote in each congressional district right. I think I did these right:
CA-1: R+11
CA-4: R+8
CA-10: Even
CA-21: D+5
CA-25: D+2
CA-39: D+3
CA-42: R+8
CA-45: D+3
CA-48: R+1
CA-49: D+4
CA-50: R+8

[Squidward500]

So you take the presidential vote in each congressional district right. I think I did these right:
CA-1: R+11
CA-4: R+8
CA-10: Even
CA-21: D+5
CA-25: D+2
CA-39: D+3
CA-42: R+8
CA-45: D+3
CA-48: R+1
CA-49: D+4
CA-50: R+8

The most basic way I input the formula is for example
[2020Dvote/(2020D+2020R) + 2016D/(2016D+2016R)]/2 = 2cycleD share of 2 party vote “X” then subtract value of National D 2 cycle (51.7) from X to get PVI. Positive number is D+ and Negative is R+

[Squidward500]

NC1: D+3
NC2: D+12
NC3: R+14
NC4: D+15
NC5: R+20
NC6: D+10
NC7: R+11
NC8: R+6
NC9: R+7
NC10: R+21
NC11: R+9
NC12: D+19
NC13: R+20


GA1: R+9
GA2: D+4
GA3: R+16
GA4: D+27
GA5: D+35
GA6: D+1
GA7: EVEN
GA8: R+16
GA9: R+31
GA10: R+13
GA11: R+12
GA12: R+9
GA13: D+23
GA14: R+28

FL1: R+21
FL2: R+20
FL3: R+9
FL4: R+14
FL5: D+12
FL6: R+11
FL7: D+3
FL8: R+12
FL9: D+3
FL10: D+12
FL11: R+18
FL12: R+11
FL13: EVEN
FL14: D+7
FL15: R+7
FL16: R+7
FL17: R+16
FL18: R+6
FL19: R+13
FL20: D+28
FL21: D+8
FL22: D+6
FL23: D+9
FL24: D+28
FL25: R+8
FL26: D+1
FL27: D+4

ID1: R+22
ID2: R+15

NM1: D+9
NM2: R+8
NM3: D+7

RI1: D+12
RI2: D+4

CT1: D+11
CT2: D+2
CT3: D+8
CT4: D+12
CT5: D+2




AZ1: R+2
AZ2: D+2
AZ3: D+13
AZ4: R+22
AZ5: R+11
AZ6: R+5
AZ7: D+24
AZ8: R+11
AZ9: D+9

MO1: D+29
MO2: R+5
MO3: R+21
MO4: R+20
MO5: D+6
MO6: R+17
MO7: R+25
MO8: R+30

IN1: D+4
IN2: R+13
IN3: R+19
IN4: R+18
IN5: R+5
IN6: R+23
IN7: D+11
IN8: R+19
IN9: R+15

[Squidward500]

OR1: D+12
OR2: R+11
OR3: D+24
OR4: R+1
OR5: D+2


IL1: D+24
IL2: D+28
IL3: D+5
IL4: D+32
IL5: D+22
IL6: D+3
IL7: D+37
IL8: D+9
IL9: D+21
IL10: D+14
IL11: D+11
IL12: R+9
IL13: R+4
IL14: R+2
IL15: R+26
IL16: R+10
IL17: R+2
IL18: R+14

TN1: R+30
TN2: R+19
TN3: R+19
TN4: R+22
TN5: D+9
TN6: R+26
TN7: R+21
TN8: R+19
TN9: D+28

HI1: D+14
HI2: D+14


And that’s it for all the states that have a full set of CD results in. Still waiting on CA CO KS LA AL KY MD PA NJ NY. If anyone has the full set snd wants to share or contribute, please do! I’ll post the map shortly

[neostassenite31]

Wow you've covered well over half of the states already. I hope the formatting was convenient enough that you didn't have to input the formula manually for each district

[Squidward500]

Wow you've covered well over half of the states already. I hope the formatting was convenient enough that you didn't have to input the formula manually for each district

I finished all the states that I could find a complete data set for. Just waiting on a few now. But it wasn’t too bad. I wrote out the functions on excel so I just had to input the data and the answer came out. They’re all in line with my state calc numbers right now too so so far so good!

So far the extremes are TX-13 at R+33 and IL-7 at D+37. Although NYC and CA will surely give some ridiculous D+ numbers. It’ll be interesting to see who wins in extremes to close the cycle on these districts. AL-4 and KY-5 might be the only ones to rival TX 13

[Roll Roons]

IL10: D+14

Mark and Bob

Anyway, I'd been looking forward to the Illinois numbers. Slightly surprised that my college's district (IL-01) shifted from D+28 to D+24. Wonder if it was more due to black people on the South Side or suburban whites in Will County. Southern Illinois (really most of the state outside of Chicagoland) has also become insanely Republican in the Trump era. If anything, it seems like it's trended R faster than the Chicago suburbs have trended D.

[Squidward500]

MD1: R+14
MD2: D+13
MD3: D+16
MD4: D+28
MD5: D+16
MD6: D+8
MD7: D+28
MD8: D+22

KY5 Will be R+33. It’s tied with TX13. It’s going to come down to AL-4


NYC

NY6: D+12
NY7: D+34
NY8: D+33
NY9: D+32
NY10: D+27
NY11: R+7
NY12: D+34
NY13: D+40
NY14: D+25
NY15: D+39

NJ 1-6

NJ1: D+11
NJ2: R+4
NJ3: R+3
NJ4: R+8
NJ5: R+1
NJ6: D+6


Colorado

CO1: D+24
CO2: D+12
CO3: R+6
CO4: R+12
CO5: R+12
CO6: D+6
CO7: D+7

[Squidward500]

IL10: D+14

Mark and Bob

Anyway, I'd been looking forward to the Illinois numbers. Slightly surprised that my college's district (IL-01) shifted from D+28 to D+24. Wonder if it was more due to black people on the South Side or suburban whites in Will County. Southern Illinois (really most of the state outside of Chicagoland) has also become insanely Republican in the Trump era. If anything, it seems like it's trended R faster than the Chicago suburbs have trended D.

That’s the first thing I thought of when i calculated it to D+14. I was like how did Bob Dold hold this district 5 years ago

[Roll Roons]

IL10: D+14

Mark and Bob

Anyway, I'd been looking forward to the Illinois numbers. Slightly surprised that my college's district (IL-01) shifted from D+28 to D+24. Wonder if it was more due to black people on the South Side or suburban whites in Will County. Southern Illinois (really most of the state outside of Chicagoland) has also become insanely Republican in the Trump era. If anything, it seems like it's trended R faster than the Chicago suburbs have trended D.

That’s the first thing I thought of when i calculated it to D+14. I was like how did Bob Dold hold this district 5 years ago

Because he's amazing. One of the nicest guys I've ever met. Also Trump is just about the worst possible fit for this district.

[Squidward500]

IL10: D+14

Mark and Bob

Anyway, I'd been looking forward to the Illinois numbers. Slightly surprised that my college's district (IL-01) shifted from D+28 to D+24. Wonder if it was more due to black people on the South Side or suburban whites in Will County. Southern Illinois (really most of the state outside of Chicagoland) has also become insanely Republican in the Trump era. If anything, it seems like it's trended R faster than the Chicago suburbs have trended D.

That’s the first thing I thought of when i calculated it to D+14. I was like how did Bob Dold hold this district 5 years ago

Because he's amazing. One of the nicest guys I've ever met. Also Trump is just about the worst possible fit for this district.

Do you think he could be convinced into running for Gov or Senate? In a Biden midterm he’d make it interesting and has a history of winning on hard turf

[Roll Roons]

IL10: D+14

Mark and Bob

Anyway, I'd been looking forward to the Illinois numbers. Slightly surprised that my college's district (IL-01) shifted from D+28 to D+24. Wonder if it was more due to black people on the South Side or suburban whites in Will County. Southern Illinois (really most of the state outside of Chicagoland) has also become insanely Republican in the Trump era. If anything, it seems like it's trended R faster than the Chicago suburbs have trended D.

That’s the first thing I thought of when i calculated it to D+14. I was like how did Bob Dold hold this district 5 years ago

Because he's amazing. One of the nicest guys I've ever met. Also Trump is just about the worst possible fit for this district.

Do you think he could be convinced into running for Gov or Senate? In a Biden midterm he’d make it interesting and has a history of winning on hard turf

Idk. I really hope so, and would do everything I can for him.