Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Smash255]

Sorry if i missed it but why do we think Peltola will get 1/3 of Begich's votes? What's the rationale behind republicans listing a democrat second?

Sarah Palin is well Sarah Palin.  If pretty much any Generic R was in 2nd with similar #'s (or if it was Begich in 2nd and Palin in 3rd with similar #'s) the R's would likely have it in the bag.  However, Palin is extremely toxic, even among some R leaning voters.   There may have been enough Begich voters that couldn't stomach voting for Palin that they either voted for the Democrat in Peltola 2nd or simply left the 2nd choice blank. 

[Smash255]

So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

This would require Palin's cooperation.

Maybe, maybe not.  I don't think there is any question that far fewer Palin voters would rank Peltola over Begich, compared to Begich voters ranking Peltola over Palin. The bigger question if Palin loses is will Palin be able to pull the same 30% of voters or will enough jump ship that Begich takes 2nd. 

[Smash255]

The UT-02 primary will be September 5, with the general election on November 21.

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This is so odd to me - why not just have the general on the same night that the rest of the country is having its general?

I believe it's to align with local/municipal elections.

Those dates are August 15th and November 7th

[Smash255]

Why does deep red Utah have vote by mail? The idea of turning "election day" into election week is ridiculous and should not be the new normal. Before 2018 we never had to wait till after election night to know who won the races.

It’s funny how you guys think that “it takes a few days longer to know the results” is a legitimate argument against mail-in voting.

Maloy is definitely favored, as only 45% of the remaining vote is expected from Salt Lake and Davis Counties. And conservative candidates tend to overperform in late mail ballots.

The remaining vote from these counties is probably mostly election day. Utah does do election day in person voting. Since Salt Lake City/Davis didn't update after their first drop which happened only a few minutes after polls closed, election day ballots almost certainly haven't been counted yet (as there's no way they could have been included in the first counted batch since there's no way election day ballots are counted that quickly).

Utah is a nearly exclusively a mail ballot state, and has been for a while. If you wish to know why, drive out to the rural areas - trust me you'll pass through many on your way to the Parks. Maybe then you will realize that this is the most efficient method for having elections in the region.

To that point, what remains is not all election day. Also counted are the unknown number of mail ballots that will arrive late but with a postage mark from before polls closed. Most of these will show up before the end of the week. In fact, all of the remaining votes in the super-rurals are probably of this nature.

Yes, VBM was a regional Western thing before it became a partisan thing.  Similarly, widespread in-person EV was a regional Southern thing pre-Trump era.

VBM was a thing for years but until 2020 it did not take multiple days to count all the votes. In 2008 2010 2012 2014 and 2016 Arizona counted almost all the votes on election night and we knew who the winner was. This election week stuff is completely new and wasn't always the case.

False.  It did take multiple days to count all the votes.  However, it wasn't exactly noticed that the final vote count didn't match to the Election Day count, because the races were not that close to begin with.