Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Stuart98]

Nina Turner in........literally hundreds of Republican ads. Nice job, genius.

This seat is D+ a bajillion, not an issue. If you're talking about being mentioned in other races nationally, I doubt it; she's hardly a known figure outside of progressive circles and there's limited mileage you can get by tying house members to some backbencher from their caucus.

[Stuart98]

If Nina Turner wins this she will probably be Kamala’s main challenger in 2024.

If Nina Turner is Kamala's main challenger then we'll have a primary that looks a lot like 2000.

[Stuart98]

A few more endorsements for Brown like that and we could be in for a real race. At present still likely Turner.

[Stuart98]

Interesting race. It's basically become national establishment vs progressives and local establishment. Turner's still got significantly more local support. I'm feeling high single digit to low double digit margin for Turner right now

[Stuart98]

Also, no one is trying to "cancel" Turner. Stop being ridiculous.

From the getgo, Turner was the one acting as if she *deserved* the nomination. Maybe it's good someone knocked her down a few pegs and made her realize she's not inevitable here.

Repeating the same argument I already refuted doesn't make it any more true. Given the DNC's continued platforming of others who conditionalized their vote from the right, it's clear that Turner is being cancelled because they don't want another progressive in the House.

See this is where the far left loses people. Shontel Brown is not a republican. It's always the 'far left' vs everyone else in the Democratic Party. You know you can be a progressive and be a Democrat without being like Nina Turner, right?

Correct; Shontel Brown is not a progressive however and her transphobia should disqualify her from even approaching a victory in a democratic primary in and of itself; that it hasn't done so is disappointing.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1420007978711855109?s=19

Honestly, how hard would it have been for Ohio Dems to find a candidate who wasn't either of these two? Turner's better but neither of these candidates are good.

[Stuart98]

Hoping Turner wins, but really an atrociously bad pair of frontrunners all around. Whichever of the two loses, they'll have no one to blame for it but themselves.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1422746034296528897?s=19
Jacques Parizeau says hi.

prgoressives don't run sh** candidates challenge

very frustrated that *this* was the best we could put up here

[Stuart98]

Writing something up after I do some gaming. Suffice to say it's clear that certain factions of the Democratic establishment didn't get Biden/Schumer's memo and still believe we're Public Enemy #1B.

Yes, it's totally not like Turner in particular had said and done things to hurt the party electorally in general elections in the past and needlessly burned bridges with the establishment in ways other progressive candidates haven't or anything...

Turner brought this on herself. If she hadn't made the sh** sandwich comment last year this race would have been called for her five minutes after polls closed.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422706792249925634

Pundit brain, the district not voting for Bernie doesn't mean they don't like him. Bernie flying in is not why Turner lost this race.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/alextdaugherty/status/1456395201568727046?t=8DucaaDk3xfOPjls...

[Stuart98]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Not an election Dems have much reason to care about; no impact on the house this congress and the seat will flip to them anyway with the new gerrymandered boundaries in November.

[Stuart98]

NYT says Southampton's >95% in and she's winning it by 14 points, wtf

[Stuart98]

Beaver came in, only a couple points better for Edwards than Paiute was. Maloy leads by about 1100 votes statewide.

Both the state website and all the results aggregators are still showing the 3 way tie in Juab, I do not trust that one bit. There should be about half as many Republican votes in the unpopulated sliver of the county as there were in Paiute county, instead there's only about a sixth. I expect Maloy nets a hundred voters from there in the actual results.