Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Benjamin Frank]

More numbers in.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 17,089 52.27%
Nina Turner 13,408 41.01%

But, Jeff Johnsonmania is going to pull this off!

[Benjamin Frank]

This is closing fast, I’d put money on Turner right now.

I don't think it's closing fast.

[Benjamin Frank]

OK, so Jeff Johnson failed here, but he takes a surprising lead in the Detroit mayoral race.

Mike Duggan Jeff Johnson 40,933 74.93%
Anthony Adams 5,069 9.28%
Tom Barrow 3,042 5.57%
Myya Jones 2,324 4.25%
Kiawana Brown 948 1.74%

See!

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown   19,287   51.75%
Nina Turner   15,642   41.97%

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown   19,781   51.75%
Nina Turner   16,065   42.03%

[Benjamin Frank]

very excited to see the rat and snake emoji's on Twitter react in stunned disbelief to Democratic base voters rejecting their candidate for some reason

Can you post some of them for general amusement?

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown   20,447   51.33%
Nina Turner   16,945   42.54%

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown   23,195   51.10%
Nina Turner   19,549   43.07%

[Benjamin Frank]

Me, ten minutes ago, before going to the NYT results page for this race I haven't been following: I have absolutely no idea what issues, if any, this primary was fought on, other than that Turner is the Nina Turner and Brown is a transphobe or something. Not very inspiring options!
Me, after going to said results page: "It will pit the establishment favorite, Shontel Brown, who has the endorsement of Hillary Clinton, against the left’s favored candidate, Nina Turner, who has the backing of Senator Bernie Sanders." oh. so it's part of the 2016 forever primary. wonderful.

Seriously, that f**king primary is going to become the American center-left's equivalent of THIGMOO factional drama from the 70s and 80s, isn't it? We're never going to be free of attempts to relitigate it.

If you check out Democratic candidate web sites, there are a number of candidates trying to blur the differences, and I gather Shontel Brown is one of those, but fundamentally, they represent distinct ideologies  and world views.  I reject that this is any kind of personality fight or that this is solely a result of the 2016 Presidential primary.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 25,494 50.42%
Nina Turner 22,167 43.84%  

[Benjamin Frank]

If you check the prediction above of who Atlas members thought would win, it was overwhelmingly for Turner.  This is why I ignore all the comments like 'of course X is going to win so Y must be a grifter.'

[Benjamin Frank]

   Who will win?
#1
Nina Turner       
129 (78.7%)
#2
Shontel Brown       
32 (19.5%)
#3
Jeff Johnson       
3 (1.8%)


I'll just post this here and maybe use it from time to time.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown    28,210   50.05%
Nina Turner   25,045   44.44%

[Benjamin Frank]

There is a slim possibility that Shontel Brown will receive more votes than all the Republican Primary votes in the Ohio 15th district combined.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 29,847 49.78%
Nina Turner     26,812 44.71%

[Benjamin Frank]

Final numbers apparently

50,456 votes
Mike Carey       18,655 36.97%
Jeff LaRe            6,724 13.33%
Ron Hood           6,632 13.14%
Bob Peterson      6,356 12.6%
Ruth Edmonds    5,052 10.01%
Thomas Hwang   2,480 4.92%
Stephanie Kunze 2,344 4.65%
Thad Cooperrider 1,061 2.10%
Omar Tarazi          899 1.78%
John Adams         172 0.34%
Eric Clark              81 0.16%


16,130 votes
Allison Russo 13,585 84.22%
Greg Betts      2,545 15.78%

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 33,592 50.45%
Nina Turner     29,430 44.20%

[Benjamin Frank]

for those looking (or not looking) at DecicisionDeskHQ, this has been a 3 way race all night:

Michigan State Senate Republican Primary District 28
Mark Huizenga 8,564 35.26%
Kevin Green 8,336 34.32%
Tommy Brann 7,390 30.42%

And this is a very close two way race

Michigan State Senate Republican Primary District 8
Pamela Hornberger 6,387 31.37%
Douglas Wozniak 6,276 30.82%

I don't know if this is being discussed elsewhere.  Does any of this have a similar Trump vs Non Trump thing?

[Benjamin Frank]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

Yeah sure the conflict in Jerusalem and Gaza was all dependent on a race in Cleveland Ohio 🙄

Shows how little you know!  It's all dependent on what happens to Canadian Green Party leader Annamie Paul. 

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 35,504 50.41%
Nina Turner     31,202 44.30%

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 36,691 50.37%
Nina Turner     32,311 44.35%

[Benjamin Frank]

Of the two close Republican primaries for the Michigan State Senate I showed earlier one of them ended up not that close

Michigan State Senate 8th district
Douglas Wozniak 9,510 35.68%
Pamela Hornberger 7,861 29.49%

but check this:

Michigan State Senate 28th district
Mark Huizenga 9,531 33.85%
Kevin Green     9,357 33.23%
Tommy Brann   9,272 32.93%

Every 174 vote counts!

[Benjamin Frank]

I guess the media narrative after the TX-6 runoff of Trump's endorsement losing value was premature, as I suspected all along.

I don't know about that. Carey won in a multi candidate field with a fairly low voter turnout.

[Benjamin Frank]

Final result

Total votes: 75,064
Shontel Brown   37,666 50.18%
Nina Turner       33,420 44.52%
Jeff Johnson        1,349  1.80%
John Barnes Jr.       773  1.03%
Shirley Smith         583  0.78%
Seth Corey            486   0.65%
Pamela Pinkney     178   0.24%
Will Knight            177   0.24%
Tariq Shabazz       130    0.17%
Martin Alexander    98    0.13%
James Bell             95    0.13%
Lateek Shabazz      60   0.08%
Isaac Powell           49   0.07%

Jeff Johnson supporters should look at it this way: he did better than John 'The Engineer' Turmel.

Republican
Total votes:  5,299
Laverne Gore 3,927 74.11%
Felicia Ross    1,372 25.89%