Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

very excited to see the rat and snake emoji's on Twitter react in stunned disbelief to Democratic base voters rejecting their candidate for some reason

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The ride never ends!

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1424899617846595590

FL-20's new Congressperson, everybody

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

From Geoffrey Skelley on the 538 live blog:

Well, well, well, this is interesting. We’re looking at all the primaries tonight, but there’s also a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District for the remainder of the term in the current Congress. And now we’re on a surprise watch: Democratic state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks is leading by about 11 points right now over Republican state Sen. Mike Flood, with 36 percent reported per the Associated Press. Now, before we go crazy, it does look like a fair bit of rural turf in this relatively red district hasn’t reported, but still, this is not at all what we expected to see here. I have a hypothesis: the overturning of Roe v. Wade has juiced Democratic turnout in a super low-turnout special election (Nebraska doesn’t have other notable elections on the ballot; its primary was in May).

His theory doesn't really hold up with the fact that this is all mail/early vote though

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

No matter how unlikely it is, a Dem upset in NE-01 would be absolutely insane.

It'll 100% be a rental but it'd be worth it for The Discourse alone.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I have to say, both Flood and Brooks are like the epitome of "Generic R" and "Generic D" on basically everything. Obviously I didn't witness the campaign first hand but everything about them makes it seem like they were grown in a lab.

They were nominated by the parties instead of elected via primaries, which is generally a breeding ground for generic candidates.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I have to say, both Flood and Brooks are like the epitome of "Generic R" and "Generic D" on basically everything. Obviously I didn't witness the campaign first hand but everything about them makes it seem like they were grown in a lab.

They were nominated by the parties instead of elected via primaries, which is generally a breeding ground for generic candidates.

It seems to depend. In this case, yes.

But don't forget that Mike Lee came into office because he beat a more moderate incumbent at a party convention.

I didn't realize that! I was thinking about Glenn Younkin when I typed my post.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

FINALLY final results for NY-19 and NY-23

NY-19 - Ryan +3.8
Ryan (D) 67,996 - 51.9%
Molinaro (R) 64,159 - 48.1%

NY-23 - Sempolinski +5.4
Sempolinski (R) 39,128 - 52.7%
Della Pia (D) 35,075 - 47.3%

So with everything tallied, Ryan's win goes from a 2.8% margin to 3.8%. With the last final ballots, Ryan gained ~1,900 votes and Molinaro ~1,100.